Thane polls: Numbers favour Shinde, Thackeray’s bank on emotional appeal in traditional Sena stronghold

As Thane goes to the polls on January 15 after nearly nine years, the civic election has shaped up as a contest between organisational strength and emotional appeal. With most undivided Shiv Sena shakhas (party’s local branch at ward levels), all MLAs and MPs, and 66 of the 67 corporators elected in 2017 now backing Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, the numbers are firmly stacked in favour of the ruling side.

At the same time, the joint campaign of Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray is testing whether the Thackeray name still carries electoral weight in the Shiv Sena’s home turf. Given Thane’s political significance and its proximity to Mumbai, the contest has drawn statewide attention and is being seen as a key test after the Shiv Sena split in June 2022.

For over three decades, Thane has been identified as a Shiv Sena stronghold, shaped by the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray and the late Anand Dighe. Except for the period between 1987 and 1993, when the Congress was in power, the civic body has largely remained with the Sena, which also played the role of senior partner in its alliance with the BJP. The upcoming election is now closely watched to see who controls that legacy on the ground — the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde or the Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena (UBT).

The last civic election was held in 2017, when the undivided Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray and the BJP contested separately despite being allies at the state level. The Shiv Sena won 67 of the 131 seats and formed the civic body on its own. The NCP won 34 seats, while the BJP finished third with 23 seats.

After the split in the Shiv Sena, the political balance in Thane changed sharply. Of the 67 corporators elected in 2017, 66 are now with the Eknath Shinde–led Sena.

In the current election, six candidates from Shinde’s Sena have already been elected unopposed, strengthening the ruling camp even before polling.

“When the same corporators, workers and ward offices remain with one faction, it naturally gives an advantage in a civic election. Sena workers and leaders who are with Shinde ji are known for helping people at even eleventh hour. So it is clear that we will be victorious,” said a senior Sena functionary, speaking at Anand Ashram on Thursday while interacting with visitors seeking assistance.

The Thane Municipal Corporation has 131 seats. Within the ruling Mahayuti, the Shiv Sena is contesting 87 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party 40, while smaller allies have been allotted four seats.

In the opposition camp, Shiv Sena (UBT) is contesting 53 seats, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) 34 seats, and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) 36 seats. Despite being in alliance with the Sena and BJP at the state and Centre, the Ajit Pawar-led NCP is contesting 75 seats, while the Congress — part of the INDIA bloc — is also contesting independently on 96 seats.

Even before polling, the arithmetic appears tilted in favour of the Shinde-led Sena, which secured the largest share in seat-sharing with the BJP and has already won six seats unopposed.

On the ground, almost all Sena shakhas in Thane are with the Shinde-led Sena. The party also has all Sena MLAs and MPs from the region, ensuring continuity of workers, local leaders and ward-level networks.

“People know where the shakha is, who solves their daily problems and who can get work done. That structure has been with the real Sainika who are with Shinde ji,” said a Shinde Sena worker.

Several residents echoed this sentiment. “For civic issues, people go to whoever is visible and accessible. What matters is if our work is getting done or not. We care about work and not politics,” said a resident of Thane West.

“Politics aside, many here feel the same people are still handling local problems,” he added.

Despite its growing presence in urban Maharashtra, the BJP remains a junior partner in Thane. Local BJP leaders had earlier pushed for contesting independently, citing the party’s rising vote share.

Senior leaders and ministers Ganesh Naik and Sanjay Kelkar were given a more active role in Thane, leading to some unease within the Shinde camp and reports of friction on the ground.

However, the BJP and the Shinde-led Sena are contesting together. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis described the decision as a conscious alliance choice, affirming that Thane belongs to Balasaheb Thackeray’s Sena, now headed by Shinde.

“Even if we had fought separately, we (alliance) might have won, but hearts would have been hurt. In Balasaheb’s favourite city, conflict would not have been right,” Fadnavis said, explaining why the BJP accepted fewer seats.

A senior BJP worker, who did not wish to be named, said, “We wanted more seats, but the message from the top was clear — don’t disturb the alliance in Thane.”

Facing a clear organisational disadvantage, Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray have intensified campaigning in Thane. Raj Thackeray’s branch visits and public meeting near Gadkari Rangayatan, along with Uddhav Thackeray’s outreach, mark the first major joint push by the Thackeray cousins in the city since coming together politically.

A Shiv Sena (UBT) worker said, “Shakhas may have gone, corporators may have gone, but people still feel the Sena belongs to the Thackeray family.”

An elderly voter in Naupada said, “We grew up seeing Balasaheb’s Sena here. That feeling does not disappear so easily.” UBT leaders privately acknowledge the organisational gap but believe sympathy following the split and loyalty to the Thackeray name could still influence voting.

The split within the NCP has added another layer to the contest. Both the Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar factions are focusing on Mumbra–Kalwa, where minority voters and local civic issues often decide outcomes, and where NCP (SP) leader Jitendra Awhad has a strong base.

“Here, people vote more on local work than party flags. Even small margins matter,” said an NCP worker from Kalwa.

Across Thane, voters repeatedly flag everyday civic problems — heavy traffic, especially on Ghodbunder Road; poor road conditions; pressure on infrastructure due to rapid growth; and water supply issues.

Cluster redevelopment of old buildings has also emerged as a concern, with sections of residents opposing projects over rehabilitation worries.

“We don’t care who wins. We want less traffic, better roads and clear answers on redevelopment,” said Rahul Pawar, a resident of Naupada.

As Thane goes to the polls, the verdict will decide not just who controls the civic body, but who truly holds ground in one of the Shiv Sena’s most important cities.

For Shinde, a strong result would cement his control over the Sena’s traditional base. For Uddhav Thackeray, it will test whether emotional appeal and legacy can still translate into votes without organisational backing. For the BJP, Thane will indicate how much space it can carve out in a Sena-dominated city. For the divided NCP, closely fought wards could still offer influence.