Trump's Venezuela Move: A Blow to China's Influence and a Revival of the Monroe Doctrine | World News

When US forces seized Nicolas Maduro in a sudden raid in Caracas, the moment played as a throwback: American muscle in the Western Hemisphere, a defiant strongman removed, a warning sent.

But the real audience was not Venezuela’s battered political class. It was Beijing.Driving the newsTrump followed the seizure with an announcement that Venezuela would be “turning over” about $2 billion worth of crude to the United States, to be sold at market prices with proceeds overseen by Washington.

President Donald Trump says Venezuela will be “turning over” roughly $2 billion worth of crude to the United States, days after a US military operation seized Nicolas Maduro and flew him to the US to face narcotics charges.Reuters reported that meeting Trump’s demand would likely require rerouting oil shipments originally destined for China, while Bloomberg described the move as a direct complication for Beijing’s long-term strategy in Latin America.The sequence - a sudden arrest followed by control over oil revenues - amounts to one of the sharpest reversals of Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere in decades.Why it matters

For Beijing, the signal is blunt. Venezuela absorbed more than 100 billion dollars in Chinese loans, accounting for over 40 percent of China’s total lending to Latin America. The loss is not merely financial. It is reputational and strategic.

Velina Tchakarova, geopolitical strategist

The big pictureVenezuela sits at the crossroads of three core Chinese priorities: energy security, geopolitical presence in Latin America, and Beijing’s claim to champion sovereignty and non-interference.

Trump’s move hit all three at once.The White House has framed the operation as part of restoring American dominance in the Western Hemisphere, a revival of the Monroe Doctrine that Trump officials have dubbed the “Donroe Doctrine.” For Beijing, it was a reminder that influence built through credit lines and infrastructure projects can evaporate quickly when confronted by force.Zoom in: 5 ways Trump’s move is a setback for Xi1. Oil leverage flips against BeijingFor more than a decade, China has been Venezuela’s most important oil customer, especially after US sanctions in 2020 pushed Western buyers out of the market.

Bloomberg figures show roughly 80% of Venezuelan crude exports last year went to China, even though those barrels accounted for only about 4% of China’s total imports. That small share masks the strategic value: Venezuelan heavy crude is deeply discounted and well suited for China’s independent refiners.Trump’s claim that Venezuelan oil will now be sold under US control strikes directly at that supply chain. Bloomberg notes China can replace those barrels with oil from Canada or Iran, but at higher cost and political complexity.Bottom line: Beijing loses one of its most flexible and politically insulated energy sources.2. China’s “dependable partner” image takes a hitChina upgraded ties with Venezuela to an “all-weather strategic partnership” in 2023 - one of Beijing’s highest diplomatic designations.Only hours before his capture, Maduro praised Xi as an “older brother” while meeting senior Chinese diplomats. State media highlighted smiling delegations reviewing bilateral agreements.

The next viral images showed Maduro blindfolded and handcuffed aboard a US vessel.Reuters quoted a Chinese government official calling the episode “a big blow” to Beijing’s effort to appear as a reliable friend. Across Latin America, governments weighing Chinese investment will notice that Beijing offered strong rhetoric - but no tangible protection.China’s pitch relies heavily on steadiness and loyalty.

In Venezuela, that perception cracked.3. Chinese loans and assets suddenly look vulnerableSince the Hugo Chavez era, China has lent Venezuela tens of billions of dollars through oil-backed loans. Bloomberg and the Guardian estimate roughly $10–12 billion remains outstanding.Those loans were structured to be repaid with oil - oil Washington is now threatening to control.Bloomberg reported that China’s top financial regulator asked major lenders to report their exposure to Venezuela after Maduro’s ouster.

Analysts warned that a US-aligned transition government could prioritize American creditors, restructure contracts, or renegotiate legacy deals.For Xi, the lesson is uncomfortable: economic leverage is only as strong as the political order that sustains it.

4. Beijing’s Latin America deterrence looks thinUS officials have framed Venezuela as proof Washington will not tolerate rival powers using the region as a base of influence.

Secretary of state Marco Rubio said the White House will not “allow the Western Hemisphere to be a base of operation for adversaries, competitors, and rivals,” according to Bloomberg.While China may rally rhetorical opposition at the UN, it lacks material options to reverse US actions.That imbalance matters. Governments across South America may quietly calculate that visible Chinese ties now carry a higher risk of drawing unwanted US pressure - slowing Beijing’s momentum without a single sanction.

5. The Taiwan comparison cuts against XiTrump’s operation sparked intense debate on Chinese social media, with some users calling it a template for how Beijing could handle Taiwan.Bloomberg reported the topic surged on Weibo within hours. Strategists, however, see the opposite lesson. Analysts cited by Bloomberg and the BBC argue Venezuela underscores how different the stakes are for China.Trump faced limited economic blowback and acted where US military dominance is overwhelming.

Xi would face sweeping sanctions, massive trade disruption and potential war if he moved on Taiwan.Rather than emboldening Beijing, the episode reinforces why Xi has favored pressure short of outright conflict.

Beijing will maintain a high-profile diplomatic posture but might not aim to take substantive action. It will tend to avoid confronting Washington over Latin America, which could lead to more pressure on China in East Asia.

Between the linesTrump’s move revives a muscular interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine, explicitly aimed at rolling back Chinese and Russian influence in the Americas.Bloomberg notes US pressure is already extending to Chinese-linked ports and infrastructure near the Panama Canal.

At the same time, Beijing faces a dilemma: condemning the raid lets China posture as a defender of international law, but muted reactions from US allies risk normalizing behavior Beijing has long criticized.That weakens China’s moral argument even as it tries to champion multilateralism.What nextMuch hinges on the choices of Venezuela’s interim leadership. If Caracas cooperates with Washington to open the oil sector to US companies, China could be edged out of one of its most politically important energy relationships in the Western Hemisphere.Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal report uncertainty over whether existing Chinese oil-for-loans agreements will be honored under a US-backed transition. Even partial compliance with US demands could redirect future production toward American firms and markets.For Xi, the likely response is caution rather than confrontation: protecting remaining assets, avoiding escalation with Washington, and reassuring other partners that Venezuela is an exception - not a warning.The bottom lineTrump’s capture of Maduro and push to redirect Venezuelan oil represent more than a bilateral shock. They compress years of great-power competition into a single, dramatic moment that exposes the limits of China’s economic-first strategy when it collides with US hard power.Beijing still has capital, patience and influence across the Global South. But in Venezuela, Xi’s long investment met an abrupt and costly reversal - and other capitals are watching closely.(With inputs from agencies)