Reform UK weighs replacing Britain’s fiscal watchdog

Richard Tice, the party’s deputy, wants a rotating panel of experts to produce economic forecasts.

LONDON — Reform UK’s deputy leader Richard Tice has floated replacing the Office for Budget Responsibility with a rotating panel of experts to produce economic forecasts for the U.K. government.

In an interview with POLITICO, Tice attacked the OBR’s “woeful” forecasts and proposed replacing it with a revolving panel of the top economic forecasters in the country, who would produce their own estimates of the U.K.'s fiscal health.

“What's the point of them if you're not going to do your job properly?” Tice said of Britain's under-fire fiscal watchdog. “There is a turgid reluctance to accept the process of continuous improvement.”

“If you didn't have the OBR, what are you replacing [it with]? Well, maybe you could have a revolving panel of the top eight economic forecasters who have, twice a year, a mandate to produce their own estimate of the key six [to] eight metrics," he added.

His comments follow previous suggestions from Reform UK's leader Nigel Farage to abolish the body, but it has not yet been clear what the party would propose to take its place. As Reform continues to top U.K. opinion polls, the development of the party’s economic agenda has been closely watched by the financial sector and beyond.

The OBR has come under attack for its forecasting record from both sides of the political aisle.

It faced significant scrutiny in November after its economic and fiscal outlook, which contained detailed information on the contents of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' autumn budget, was accidentally made accessible hours before she began her official announcement.

OBR Chair Richard Hughes stepped down as a result of the leak.

The OBR has also been criticized for its outsized influence on government spending, given that its forecasts can have a significant impact on which policies the Treasury decides to include in the budget.

“The OBR is literally telling the government how to run its policy,” Tice said. “The government comes up with an idea, and it says to the OBR ‘what’s the consequence of this?’”

“[The OBR] say this is our forecast, so the government says I can’t do that or I can do that, and then you find out that the OBR forecast was useless, not worth the paper it’s written on.”

Tice joins former Prime Minister Liz Truss in his criticism of the independent body. Truss, who also called for the OBR to be abolished, shunned the watchdog's provision of an independent economic forecast and analysis for her 2022 mini budget, leading to market turmoil amid unfunded tax cuts.

One of the Labour Party's first acts upon reaching government in July 2024 was to put in place a "budget responsibility" bill to enable the OBR to produce of its own volition a forecast on major government tax or spending plans.