‘Psychological bias’ to climate change risks slowing progress - study

Most people believe that climate change affects others more than themselves, as scientists warn that our "psychological bias” may be hindering efforts to curb global warming.

Researchers at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden recently analysed 83 studies involving more than 70,000 people from 17 countries. This includes participants from the US, Asia, and Europe.

Published in the journal Nature Sustainability, their study found that climate-related risks are “systematically underestimated” - even when people take the consequences of the climate crisis seriously.

The meta-analysis found that 65 per cent of participants assessed their own risk of being affected by climate change as lower than others, which scientists argue could reduce individual willingness to tackle rising temperatures.

They say that having the choice of a reference group plays a significant role in this ‘not-me’ way of thinking, with risk assessments being most distorted when people compare themselves with “general others”. This may be fellow citizens, humanity as a whole, as well as countries with lower overall climate risk.

This effect was mostly observed in Europe – despite the continent warming at roughly double the global average rate. Last year, this fuelled the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, triggering short-term economic losses of at least €126 billion and killing thousands.

81 out of 83 studies included in the analysis showed that participants rated their own risk as lower than that of others, or lower than the average, both in relation to extreme weather events and more general climate-related risks.

“We found the effect in all but two studies, where participants were farmers in China and South Korea who had been directly exposed to the consequences of climate change,” says Pär Bjälkerbring, a senior lecturer in Psychology at the University of Gothenburg.

“This suggests that direct experience reduces the effect.”

Researchers say their results show that our understanding of climate-related risks is “limited and flawed” and could delay necessary climate action.

“Even when people recognise the real risks posed by climate change, many seem to perceive these risks as primarily affecting others,” says Magnus Bergquist, a senior lecturer in Psychology at the University of Gothenburg.

“This is a psychological bias that, in the worst case, can slow down climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.”