NFL playoff bracket predictions: Scores, Super Bowl LX pick - ESPN

It's NFL playoff preview time. There are a lot of ways to break down what we're about to see, but I've landed on one I like: I'm going to take the playoff bracket and try to break down what would matter most in each game, picking winners along the way. We'll end with a Super Bowl prediction and a winner.

I've used this format for a couple of years now, and during that time, I've stuck to my preseason Super Bowl prediction when I've put together my bracket in January. This time around, that's not going to work. I did suggest before the season that the Chiefs would decline in 2025, but I thought that was going to be down to the 11- or 12-win range, and I still believed they would win the Super Bowl. On the other side, I had the Packers, who had just acquired Micah Parsons to add some star power to a young, talented roster.

A few torn ACLs later, those plans are in disarray. The Chiefs aren't in the bracket at all. The Packers are here, but they're walking wounded as a 7-seed. So this year, because my preseason pick is officially impossible, I'm freeing myself to make a new Super Bowl prediction. The chance of me picking all 13 games correctly is zero point zero percent, but maybe we can learn something along the way. What I'm interested in is how teams match up and what has changed about teams as they hit the postseason. Is there something about a team's performance that doesn't match public perception? Is there a weakness a particular opponent is likely to exploit? Was there something in a prior game between two teams that is unlikely to recur in a rematch?

Of course, there are so many things that can happen in a single NFL game that can't be anticipated. Think about the Packers-Eagles game last postseason, when Green Bay fumbled away the opening kickoff for a short field and a touchdown, lost Elgton Jenkins to a first-quarter injury and had his replacements commit three penalties, and eventually finished the game down its top three wide receivers. Nobody could have imagined that the 49ers would end up playing Christian McCaffrey at quarterback out of desperation in the NFC Championship Game a few years ago or (look away Saints fans) that an inexplicable pass interference non-call would help swing that same game years earlier. There's more unknown than known in previewing any matchup, let alone one weeks away.

It's still fun to go through the bracket to suss out how the playoffs might go, though, and so that's why we're here today. And while there have been years when the conference brackets seemed like parades to the Super Bowl for the top seeds, this is a wide-open season. The Broncos and Seahawks have plenty of skeptics. The top-ranked team in the NFC in ESPN's Football Power Index -- the Rams -- is the fifth seed. Its top-ranked team in the AFC is the Ravens, who won't be joining us this January, and just below are the Bills, who will be the sixth seed in the conference. It feels like anything is possible this postseason.

Here's a good example of why this is a flatter postseason than usual. Since the league moved to the 14-team playoff format, the seventh seeds have collectively been slaughtered. They've gone 1-9 while losing by an average of nearly 11 points per contest. The only 7-seed to win even a single game is the 2023 Packers, who were then dismissed by the 49ers in the divisional round.

And yet here in the AFC, the Chargers are only 3.5-point underdogs as they travel to the East Coast to face the Patriots. Playing Sunday night is preferable given the track record of West Coast teams traveling and playing games at 1 p.m. ET, but this is really a referendum on the Patriots and the historically easy schedule they've faced this season. The Pats finished with the 10th-easiest schedule since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, per Pro-football-reference.com -- just ahead of the 1972 Dolphins, who rode that friendly slate to the only perfect season in league history.

There's a bit of a "movable force versus resistible object" thing happening here for the Patriots on defense. Their weakness all season has been in the red zone, where they have allowed opposing teams to score touchdowns nearly 68% of the time, the third-worst rate in the NFL. The problem for the Chargers is that they've also been a mess in the red zone, where they've converted only 47.4% of their trips into touchdowns.

Both sides could make a case that they'll be better in the postseason. The Chargers didn't have Omarion Hampton or Najee Harris, their two power backs, for most of the season. They have Hampton back now, and with Kimani Vidal sitting out the entirety of Week 18 despite being cleared to play after suffering a neck injury, coach Jim Harbaugh might lean heavily on his first-round pick. The Patriots did welcome back star defensive tackle Milton Williams -- who had been out because of an ankle injury -- for the final game of the regular season, though, and that's a much-needed addition for a team built through its defensive line.

But the Chargers are a completely different offense without tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Slater has missed the entire season because of a ruptured patellar tendon. The Chargers have still been third in the NFL in EPA per play with Alt (ankle) on the field, but they have been 26th without him. Missing Hampton for much of that stretch didn't help, but the offense has been disjointed and struggled to find an identity for most of the year.

Drake Maye's ability to attack downfield is the way to beat this Chargers defense, as C.J. Stroud showed with his first-quarter outburst two weeks ago. Maye led the league in Total QBR on deep passes, and while the Chargers were the fourth-best pass defense by EPA per play against short and intermediate passes, that fell to 16th when teams attacked them with deep balls.

This would be a matchup of the best offense at throwing to either sideline by QBR (New England) against the best defense at stopping those throws (Los Angeles). Top Chargers cornerback Donte Jackson is expected to play after leaving L.A.'s Week 18 loss to the Broncos with an injury, but I think Maye hits a couple of deep shots to earn his first career playoff victory.

Prediction: Patriots 21, Chargers 13

This is the game of the weekend for me, as we'll get Josh Allen with a week of rest for his ailing foot against Trevor Lawrence in the best form of his career. Lawrence's 85.0 Total QBR over the past five games is second in the NFL behind Maye; Lawrence is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt over that span while throwing 15 touchdown passes against just one interception.

Can Lawrence sustain that through the postseason? I'm not sure. We're not that far removed from a four-turnover game against the Cardinals in Week 12, and Lawrence had 13 interceptions and five fumbles this season. I also go back to 2022, when Lawrence posted a 15-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the final 10 games of the season, then threw five picks in two postseason games against the Chargers and Chiefs.

Lawrence has been able to play his best ball after Jacksonville added Jakobi Meyers, who gave him a much-needed option on in-breaking routes. Lawrence and the Jags were 30th in QBR on in-breaking routes during the first half of the season, but that has improved to 10th during the second half. The Bills have been a roughly neutral defense against different route types, but it makes sense to target the middle of their defense. Cole Bishop has struggled at safety, and it's unclear whether Buffalo will have (or should hope to have) Jordan Poyer at safety or Terrel Bernard at linebacker.

The bigger concern with the Bills in this matchup would be on the ground, where they've been a sieve in terms of allowing big plays. Buffalo has given up 28 gains of 15 yards or more on the ground, the most of any postseason team. Coach Liam Coen has improved what had been a moribund Jags run game, but despite a few big runs here and there, Jacksonville was 27th in the league in turning rush attempts into gains of 15-plus yards. If the Jaguars win this game, it will likely include a long carry or two from Travis Etienne Jr., who could be playing his final game in a Jags uniform.

The other factor that might decide this game is whether the Jacksonville defense can force an interception or two from Allen. One year after posting the fewest takeaways in the league, the Jaguars have thrived by forcing turnovers, with their 22 interceptions ranking second in the NFL. And while Allen posted a career-low 1.2% interception rate while winning MVP a year ago, his 2.2% rate in 2025 was roughly in line with his career average. With a receiving corps that struggles to separate against tight coverage, we know Allen is going to need to make some tight-window throws, and that's where the Jags can get their picks.

The Jaguars are a heavy zone coverage team, though, and Allen's 71.7 QBR against zone this season is the second-best mark in the league. The Jaguars have been a much better defense against teams that go lighter than against teams that use multiple tight ends, and the Bills are going to bring Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes onto the field to try to manipulate Jacksonville's personnel and limit its exotic pressure looks. The Bills win in a shootout.

Prediction: Bills 28, Jaguars 24

The Texans come into the postseason as the NFL's hottest team, having responded to their 2-4 start by winning 10 of the ensuing 11 games, including nine straight to end the 2025 season. They're third in EPA per play on defense, and their physicality is a scary match for a Steelers team that doesn't often stretch opposing defenses downfield. Aaron Rodgers was able to consistently move the ball downfield on Sunday night only after the Ravens lost star safety Kyle Hamilton to a concussion.

The Steelers have a distinct formula for winning. Does it match up well against the Texans?

We know that Rodgers wants to get the ball out quickly, which could help mitigate the impact of the fearsome Texans pass rush. Derek Stingley Jr. & Co. form an excellent secondary, but the Texans aren't as effective when the ball comes out within 2.5 seconds of the snap. Houston is 13th in EPA per defensive snap on those quick passes and the league's best defense afterward. Rodgers' average pass comes out after 2.6 seconds, the quickest rate for anyone in the league.

The Steelers lean into bigger personnel groupings by using a sixth offensive lineman and multi-tight end sets. Rodgers also loves throwing to his backs, particularly Kenneth Gainwell, who was named team MVP for his work during the regular season. The Texans are third in QBR on throws to running backs, but they do suffer when teams go bigger. They fall from being the best defense in QBR against when opponents use no or one tight end to 16th when they face multi-tight end sets.

Mike Tomlin's teams thrive by winning the turnover battle and relying on their defense to hand the offense a short field or two from takeaways. Here's where I would be worried for the Steelers: C.J. Stroud is excellent at protecting the football, and the Texans turn the ball over on just under 6% of their drives, the best giveaway rate in the NFL this season. When the Steelers don't force turnovers, they're a league-average defense by points allowed per possession.

The Steelers usually have an advantage on special teams and manage to leverage that into a well-timed turnover or better kicking, but I'm not sure that will be the case Sunday, either. Chris Boswell missed what could have been a season-altering extra point in Pittsburgh's win over the Ravens, but the longtime Steelers kicker has generally been very good this season, hitting field goals at a rate 13.9% better than what an average kicker would do in the same situations, per Next Gen Stats. Houston's Ka'imi Fairbairn is right there with Boswell at 12.7% above average on his field goal attempts, though. He will have to kick on some of the least-friendly turf in football after spending most of the season in domes or friendly weather situations, but he has been one of the league's most reliable kickers.

The Steelers are fifth in win probability added on special teams, but the Texans are second. I don't think there's a huge advantage to be had for the Steelers here.

And unfortunately, while we just saw the Steelers win what unexpectedly turned into a late-game shootout with the Ravens, we know that their paths to victory have been narrower than those of the Texans. These teams are flawed up front, and I would expect a conservative game driven by the two pass rushes. But the Steelers are the more likely of these two teams to make a fatal mistake.

Prediction: Texans 16, Steelers 13

It's the Packers' third postseason in a row as the seventh seed, and it's a third game between these two teams this season. The Packers came within an onside kick of sweeping their division rivals, but the Bears also came within a last-minute interception of getting the sweep themselves.

Despite the gap in seeding, this is also another matchup in which the lower seed is favored. The Packers are 1.5-point favorites even though they are traveling to Chicago this weekend. ESPN's Football Power Index has the Packers as the NFL's fifth-best team, while the Bears are 15th. DVOA ranks the Packers 11th and the Bears 16th, just behind the Ravens and Chiefs.

Are there reasons to think those numbers could be wrong? Yes, owing mostly to player availability. The Packers aren't going to have Micah Parsons in this game after the star edge rusher tore his left ACL. Cornerback Nate Hobbs, another offseason addition, is on injured reserve. Josh Jacobs has clearly been hobbled in recent weeks; the lead back had to leave the Packers' Week 16 game against the Bears after a goal-line fumble, then carried the ball four times for 3 yards against the Ravens before sitting out in Week 18. And Zach Tom, Green Bay's right tackle, will be questionable.

Jordan Love is returning to the lineup after suffering a concussion in the Week 16 loss to the Bears and missing the remainder of the regular season. The Packers looked just fine on offense with backup Malik Willis under center, but Love was third in the league in EPA per dropback before the second game against the Bears. At his best, Love is one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football. And while his mistakes can be conspicuous and frustrating, Love is at his best more often than it might seem.

One of the things Love and the Packers do really well is a problem for the Bears. I've written about it repeatedly throughout the year, but it remains an issue: The Bears are completely and utterly dependent on creating takeaways on defense. They're the best team in the NFL at forcing turnovers, ending a league-high 18.2% of opposing drives with a takeaway. But they're 27th in points allowed per possession when they don't force a turnover, just ahead of the Jets and Bengals. The hope was that the return of Jaylon Johnson and other starters from injuries would improve the defense, but the Bears have continued to struggle when they aren't taking the ball away.

The Packers, unfortunately for Chicago, turn the ball over at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL, as just 7.8% of their drives end with a giveaway. The Bears forced one turnover from the Packers in each of their games, but Green Bay scored 28 in the first game. In the second, the Packers drove inside the 10-yard line four times in the first three quarters and came away with just three points, something the Bears can't count on again in the rubber match.

What the Bears can count on, though, is emulating what the Ravens did against the Packers in Week 17: running the hell out of the ball. Derrick Henry had one of the biggest games by any back all season against the Packers (216 yards, four TDs), and the Bears have a better rushing attack than the Ravens, if not a better back. Driven by one of the league's best run-blocking lines, the Bears are third in success rate on designed runs. The Packers are 23rd against those runs, and while the Cowboys were happy to hint that Parsons was a disastrous run defender, it's telling that Henry's huge game came after Parsons was lost for the season.

We saw Bears quarterback Caleb Williams hit what might have been the throw of the year to win the second game against the Packers in overtime, but he has been inconsistent and has a high off-target rate. He should have something close to a full complement of playmakers, but I don't know if the Bears can stop the Packers on defense. This should be another fun one, but I expect the Packers to win the decider.

Prediction: Packers 31, Bears 24

The vibes for this matchup aren't exactly blissful. The 49ers are coming off a brutal loss in their attempt to win the NFC West and the top seed in the conference, scoring just three points in what was the least-successful offensive effort of the Kyle Shanahan era (since 2017). The Eagles responded by essentially benching their starters (minus receiver DeVonta Smith, who was spammed with targets to get over 1,000 yards before leaving the game) and losing to the Commanders, passing up the opportunity to land the 2-seed in the process.

Eagles coach Nick Sirianni will never say this, but I suspect that both the coach and the rest of the organization preferred to play an injury-weakened 49ers team than the Packers, who rate out as a better team by advanced metrics. (Some organizations wouldn't know or care, but I believe the analytically inclined Eagles are not one of those teams.) The Eagles would miss out on a potential home game if they end up playing the Bears, but we've already seen Ben Johnson's team run all over the Eagles in South Philly this season.

The key factor for this game might be the presence of two Hall of Fame-caliber tackles. The 49ers lost Trent Williams (hamstring) on the opening snap of the Week 17 win over the Bears, and while San Francisco still managed to score 42 points over its ensuing nine possessions, the Niners managed only three points against an elite Seahawks defense the following week. Philadelphia's best pass rusher is on the interior in Jalen Carter, but the Eagles have a deep, talented defensive line that can take advantage of the weak spots for the 49ers up front, especially at tackle. It's unclear whether Williams and wideout Ricky Pearsall, who missed game against the Seahawks because of a knee injury, will be on the field this weekend.

Brock Purdy will target his running backs and tight ends, but the Eagles have comfortably been the best defense in the NFL at stopping opposing tight ends this season. Targets toward opposing tight ends against the Eagles have produced a 42.9 QBR this season; nobody else is within 20 points of that mark, and the second-placed team (the 49ers, coincidentally) are closer to 21st than they are to the Eagles in first. EPA shows similar results. This will be a very tough matchup for 49ers tight end George Kittle, and given how effective the Eagles' duo of Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean is in coverage, this seems like a game in which Christian McCaffrey might see 15 targets.

The Eagles, meanwhile, will hope to get Lane Johnson back after their star right tackle missed most of the second half of the season because of a Lisfranc injury. As is often the case, much of the grumbling about the Eagles and their frustrating offense boiling over came after Johnson went down injured. Jalen Hurts posted a 64.3 QBR with Johnson on the field this season, but that fell to 50.1 without him in the lineup. And the offense fell from seventh in EPA per snap to 25th.

A 49ers defense that was already riddled with injuries will have to deal with another absence, as linebacker Tatum Bethune will miss the postseason because of a torn groin muscle. For now, the 49ers will turn to veteran Eric Kendricks, who was out of football for most of the year and looked painfully slow with the Cowboys in 2024. Kendricks is a smart player and will know where he needs to be, but I just don't love his chances of surviving in space against Eagles running back Saquon Barkley or Hurts.

The Eagles have quietly expanded Hurts' rushing volume in recent weeks, with the offense seemingly picking up one third-and-long per game with a quarterback draw. Leaving sneaks, scrambles and kneels aside, Hurts had just 10 designed runs through Week 10. The Eagles then gave him 17 designed runs over the next six games, yielding 100 yards and seven first downs. After a week of rest and with the stakes raised, I would expect to see more Hurts in the QB run game, which adds another efficient play to the offense and helps make life easier for Barkley.

I have my concerns about the Eagles, but the tackles are enough to decide this one for me. It looks like the Eagles will have Johnson and the 49ers won't have Williams, and if that's the case, it'll be tough for the 49ers to overcome yet another critical absence.

Prediction: Eagles 24, 49ers 16

Five of the six wild-card games are expected to be relatively close. This is the exception. The Panthers are 10.5-point underdogs despite being at home against a Rams team they beat 31-28 earlier this season in Carolina. It's the sort of thing that would make you feel disrespected if you hadn't lost a division-clinching game last week and needed a divisional rival to get you into the playoffs.

This is, objectively, a mismatch. The Rams finished the season as the NFL's best team by the FPI. The Panthers were 25th. L.A. coach Sean McVay's team was four wins better during the regular season while facing a tougher schedule. But then again, it was a mismatch on paper in the 2010 playoffs when an 11-5 Saints team traveled to Seattle to play a 7-9 Seahawks team. Seattle had won an awful division in Week 17 and wasn't even sure who would be its starting quarterback in the playoffs. The Saints were 10-point favorites in Seattle and got Beast-quaked back to New Orleans.

We don't have to imagine what it would take for the Panthers to upset the Rams, of course. But looking back at that Week 13 game, what happened? And what are the chances that it happens again?

To start, the Panthers won the turnover battle with a plus-3 margin, including a pick-six for cornerback Mike Jackson. That's the only time all season they've posted such a significant turnover margin in a game. Their success has been closely linked to how well they protect the football on offense. Last Saturday's loss to the Bucs was another multi-turnover game, most notably with the ill-fated decision to attempt a flea-flicker on the edge of the red zone. Carolina fell to 1-7 when it turns the ball over at least twice, leaving it 7-2 when it avoids multi-turnover games. The Rams have forced takeaways at the third-highest rate in the NFL this season.

The Panthers went 7-for-15 on third down and 3-for-3 on fourth down, with two of those plays turning into 33- and 43-yard touchdowns. Carolina should be capable of hitting big shots against the Rams, but relying on those plays on fourth down and for long touchdowns will be extremely dangerous. Those third- and fourth-down conversions that didn't result in touchdowns also allowed the Panthers to retain the football, which shortened the game; the teams shared only 15 meaningful possessions, with the Rams punting once.

Rico Dowdle and the Carolina ground game did run the ball effectively, turning 40 carries into 161 yards. We've seen Carolina run the ball well at times, and the potential to get guard Robert Hunt (biceps) back for this game would theoretically be a boon against one of the league's best defensive fronts.

The only problem is that the Rams ran the ball even better in that game, turning their 21 carries into 152 yards and two touchdowns. Quarterback Matthew Stafford averaged nearly 9 yards per attempt, and the Rams still averaged 7.4 yards per play. They finished with the fourth-highest success rate on designed runs for any team in any game all season. The Panthers didn't have starting linebacker (and former Rams player) Christian Rozeboom for that game, but the Rams have one of the most efficient rushing attacks in recent league history.

It's difficult to imagine the Panthers overcoming the Rams if they get outrun again this time around, and it's tough to find a path to that performance from Week 13 happening a second time.

Prediction: Rams 31, Panthers 15

Here's another fun rematch. Last season, the Broncos were the wild-card team heading to Buffalo. Denver quarterback Bo Nix threw a 43-yard touchdown pass on the opening drive to kick off the scoring, but those were the only points of the game for the Broncos, who missed a field goal and had a late drive end in the red zone without a score. Facing arguably the league's best defense, the Bills scored on six of their seven meaningful possessions, rolling off 11-, 12-, 13- and 14-play drives en route to a 31-7 victory.

Of course, that was last season, and these teams are different now. The Bills have struggled for consistency on offense, even if the drop-off might be overstated; they've fallen only from second to third in the NFL in EPA per play. The Broncos were desperate to avoid giving up big plays to this offense last year, but the Bills beat them with a thousand small cuts. They went 8-of-15 on third down and converted both of their fourth downs. Josh Allen ran eight times for 46 yards and five first downs, and the Bills eventually hit Curtis Samuel on a deep shot for a 55-yard score.

This isn't a great matchup for the Broncos' strengths on defense. They have a superstar cornerback in Pat Surtain II, but the Bills, to put it charitably, don't have a No. 1 receiver for Surtain to mark out of the game. The place to attack Vance Joseph's team is throwing at its linebackers, and Allen will happily target his tight ends and running backs up and down the field. Allen completed only 20 passes when these teams played in the wild-card round last season, but those throws went to eight different Bills.

And while this Broncos team can call upon valuable new additions in Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw, I'm a little nervous that the defense might not be quite as dominant as its reputation would suggest. The Broncos finished the regular season seventh in EPA per play, and that's even after Nik Bonitto and this defensive unit got to end the season by playing Chris Oladokun and Trey Lance instead of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.

The Broncos were 10th in EPA per play on defense before those season-ending games against second- and third-stringers. They were 27th over the four-game stretch between their mid-November bye and the 34-20 loss against the Jaguars, and while Trevor Lawrence is playing great football, that run included games against Marcus Mariota and the combination of Geno Smith and Kenny Pickett.

The Bills' defense is no great shakes, of course, with a particular vulnerability against the run. Can the Broncos exploit that weakness? They were 17th in success rate and 23rd in EPA per play on designed runs this season. Getting J.K. Dobbins back would help, but reports suggest that he wouldn't be able to return until the AFC Championship Game, if not the Super Bowl. Nix hasn't scrambled quite as often as he did as a rookie, but this is where the young quarterback's affinity for picking up first downs would come in handy.

Coach Sean Payton springs this offense with heavy doses of movement from Nix, but that's a place where the Bills have actually been good on the defense. They're seventh in QBR against throws from outside the pocket and have the sixth-best success rate against throws when a quarterback is on the run. The Bills forced Nix to be a pocket passer in last season's playoffs, and while he went 9-of-15 for 115 yards and that early touchdown, he managed only five first downs on those 15 dropbacks.

Most advanced metrics see the Bills as a similar or better team to the Broncos. ESPN's FPI has the Bills as the seventh-best team, while the Broncos are 11th. DVOA has the Broncos in seventh and the Bills in eighth. Home-field advantage and a week of rest will help Denver, but this just doesn't seem like a good matchup for what the Broncos do well, and I'm a little spooked by their defensive decline after the bye.

Prediction: Bills 27, Broncos 17

There are plenty of ties between these two franchises, of course. The Texans were essentially Patriots South at a time during the Bill O'Brien era, although GM Nick Caserio has stuck around and formed a new identity for the organization with DeMeco Ryans at the helm. And Mike Vrabel was once a defensive assistant with the Texans, with Houston finishing dead last in scoring defense during his lone year in charge. The Texans dropped 41 points on the Pats when these two teams faced off in 2024, but that was a very different New England team than the one Houston would face in the divisional round.

I mentioned how much the Pats have struggled in the red zone on defense, and fortuitously, they would get another matchup against an offense that hasn't been any good inside the 20. With a dismal running game for most of the season, the Texans rank 30th in red zone touchdown rate, converting just over 46% of the time. Their 28.8% success rate running the ball inside the 20-yard line was 31st, ahead of only the Raiders.

We would get a fascinating matchup between Texans receiver Nico Collins and star Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who earned his first Pro Bowl nod this season. The Patriots haven't played man at a particularly high rate despite adding corner Carlton Davis III to their cornerback room, but this might be a week when Vrabel's defense leans into their ability to do so. The Texans have the 10th-best passing attack against zone coverage per QBR, but that falls to 20th against man defense.

Could Stroud win throwing to his non-Collins targets? We've seen players like Dalton Schultz and Xavier Hutchinson have moments this season, but Stroud has an 81.7 Total QBR throwing to his top wideout and a 57.9 QBR when targeting any of his other receivers. With Houston's inability to run the football, I would be worried about the Patriots being able to take Collins out of the game and the Texans struggling to find solutions elsewhere.

There aren't many places where the Texans' defense can get beat, but one place where opposing offenses have had success is with scrambles. While Ryans' defense is rangy and physical, it has allowed a league-high 9.2 yards per scramble from opposing quarterbacks. The Texans obviously don't have to worry about anything more than the occasional scramble from Aaron Rodgers in the wild-card round, but Maye and the Pats scrambled for nearly 26 yards per game this season, sixth highest.

And while there's no arguing from me that the Texans have one of the best defenses in football, there's one spot they've been a little lucky this season: drops. Opposing receivers have dropped 5.8% of the passes thrown their way against Houston, the second-highest rate in the league. I would understand chalking that up to this defense's ability to hit and jar balls loose, but many of these defensive players were in place in 2024, and the Texans forced drops only 3.8% of the time then.

The Patriots have collectively done a spectacular job of exceeding expectations when it comes to catching the football, as their 9.1% completion percentage over expectation leads all teams (Next Gen Stats). That's likely going to regress to the mean some in the postseason, but Maye has been fantastic at fitting balls into tight windows and in catchable spots for his receivers. The Texans should give the Patriots trouble, but Stefon Diggs wins this revenge game against his former team.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Texans 17

Packers fans surely still have nightmares about the last time they played a postseason game in Seattle, when Mike McCarthy's conservative decisions, a fake field goal, a failed onside kick recovery and one of the wildest two-point conversions ever seen helped the Seahawks overcome four Russell Wilson interceptions to beat the Packers in the 2014 NFC Championship Game. The Seahawks seemed like a team of destiny -- until Wilson's next interception cost them the Super Bowl two weeks later.

These Seahawks have become a conundrum. I've written about how dramatic the splits are for Sam Darnold, who has never really been able to get back on track for a full game since his disastrous performance in the first game against the Rams in November. Darnold has had his moments since then, but he led the NFL in Total QBR up until then and is 27th since. He also has as many passing touchdowns (eight) as interceptions during that time. And after averaging 9.9 yards per attempt before that first Rams game, Darnold is down to 7.2 yards per throw since.

We're seeing the same sort of hesitance to put the ball in danger that Darnold showed during his frustrating end to the 2024 season, with his decision to turn down a throw to the flat from the 1-yard line in Week 18 serving as a carbon copy of a throw he turned down in Week 18 the prior year, when Darnold left four touchdowns on the field in a frustrating loss to the Lions.

The week off could have done Darnold some good. We know he'll be better off without needing to face Micah Parsons. The concerning thing is that the strength of the Seahawks' passing attack has been play-action, but the Packers allow only 6.2 yards per attempt off play-fakes this season, the third-stingiest rate in the NFL. Can this version of Darnold survive as a dropback passer?

Even with the Darnold downturn, though, the Seahawks responded to their loss to the Rams by winning their final seven games to claim the top spot in the conference. There has been a bit of fortune in there -- the Seahawks needed a drive in the final minute to beat the Colts and came back from 16 points down in the fourth quarter thanks to their special teams in the rematch with the Rams -- but Seattle has managed to go 7-0 despite having to drag its quarterback along for the ride.

How have they done it? On offense, a previously busted run game has finally gotten going. The Seahawks were 25th in EPA per designed run through the first game against the Rams, but that jumped to 11th over their seven-game win streak. Much of that has been some overdue explosiveness. The Seahawks had three runs of 25 yards or more through their first 11 games. They have seven over the past seven games, including four by Zach Charbonnet. Seattle's duo of Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III carried the ball 33 times for 171 yards in the season-ending win over the 49ers; that sort of performance seems entirely possible against a Packers run defense that looked exhausted against the Ravens' Derrick Henry in Week 17.

The Seahawks' defense has simultaneously grown to completely suffocate opposing offenses. They lead the league in EPA against per play and points allowed per drive over the past seven weeks. They've held four teams to nine points or fewer, limited the Colts to one touchdown and had the Titans at 10 points late in the fourth quarter before two garbage-time scores. The Rams are the only team that has had sustained success moving the ball on the Seahawks during their win streak.

Can the Packers keep up with that sort of effectiveness? I'm just not sure. I know I just suggested that they could score 31 points on the Bears, but look at what the 49ers did against the Bears in Week 17 and what they did the following week against Seattle. Green Bay hasn't been consistently effective running the football most of the season, and Josh Jacobs' injury won't help its chances of getting the run game going against Seattle. If the Packers had Parsons, I might believe that they could terrify Darnold into a few turnovers, but the Seahawks should be able to win with their defense and run game.

Prediction: Seahawks 20, Packers 10

Another trip to Philadelphia for the Rams, who had their 2024 playoffs ended in the snow by a pair of Jalen Carter pass rushes and then lost earlier this season thanks to a blocked field goal by Jordan Davis. Stopping the interior of the Eagles' line is a must for Sean McVay, and the Rams will need guard Kevin Dotson back in the lineup by this point of the postseason.

The Eagles came back from a 26-7 deficit in the second half to win in September, a product of them abandoning a run game that wasn't working and simply targeting the weakest link of Chris Shula's defense -- the cornerbacks -- with vertical routes. I'd expect the Eagles to get to that solution earlier in the game this time around, but Los Angeles' corners (particularly Emmanuel Forbes Jr.) are better now than they were earlier in the season. The Eagles also had Lane Johnson for only 10 snaps of that game before the star tackle left with a stinger, so if they have Johnson back in the fold from a foot injury for the rematch, that should make life easier for Jalen Hurts.

On the other hand, while there were a couple of big-play bursts from Saquon Barkley late in the season, the Eagles haven't really run the ball well. They were 22nd in success rate on designed runs by the end of 2025, and that was down from only 17th while Johnson was on the field earlier in the year. The Eagles are a bad matchup in terms of physicality for the Rams, who want to load up the field with defensive backs and play dime at the highest rate in the league (32.4%). The Eagles overpowered a Rams sub-package with bigger bodies for a long Barkley touchdown run last season; they'll need to force the Rams out of those groupings and into their base defense by running the football, and that hasn't been a successful habit for them.

Meanwhile, the Rams turned 31 carries into 160 yards when these teams played earlier this season, and we saw the Bears run for 281 yards on these very Eagles in Philadelphia in November. The Rams have unlocked a new counterpunch with their 13 personnel (one back, one wide receiver, three tight ends) packages, and the Eagles are 24th in EPA per play on defense when teams have three tight ends on the field. I'd expect the Rams to run the ball and run it well in a rematch here.

Matthew Stafford didn't have his best game against Philly, going 19-of-33 for 196 yards, two touchdowns and a pick while missing a couple of key throws. The Rams were still good enough to make it into the red zone four times, though, and they went just 1-for-4 once they got there. The Eagles can't count on forcing the Rams to kick field goals or blocking those attempts this time. I think the defending champs' reign stops here.

Prediction: Rams 27, Eagles 21

And then we get another rematch in the AFC Championship Game. The Bills and Patriots split their regular-season matchups, with the Pats winning 23-20 at Buffalo before the Bills came back from a 21-point deficit to get their revenge 35-31 at New England. The Patriots ran for a whopping 246 yards and four touchdowns in that second game, but Drake Maye threw for only 47 yards after the break, and the Bills scored touchdowns on five consecutive drives.

After a dismal first half, the Bills were able to flip the script on Maye in the second half by shifting into more two-deep looks and disguising their intentions to keep the Patriots from just checking to designed runs. With a lead and facing those two-high looks after the snap, the Patriots dropped back to pass 83.7% of the time in the second half, a remarkable figure given how inefficient they were throwing the ball. New England can't get outcoached with regards to adjustments if the Bills make in-game shifts again.

This was especially frustrating given how effectively the Patriots ran the football. With a 21-0 lead and the Bills struggling to stop the run all season, the Pats should have had no qualms about staying on the ground. They averaged an unreal 9.8 yards per carry in this game, the highest for any team in any game this season that didn't involve the Giants. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels probably can't count on 52- and 65-yard touchdown runs from TreVeyon Henderson again, but with left tackle Will Campbell (knee) back in the mix, the Pats should be able to lean on their ground game and keep the Buffalo offense off the field.

The Pats didn't do a great job slowing down the Buffalo offense for long in either game. The Bills averaged 38.2 yards per drive in Week 5 and 35.4 yards per possession in Week 15. The only game in which the Patriots allowed more yards per drive came against the Dolphins, all the way back in Week 2. The Bills turned nearly 85% of their series into a first down or a touchdown in the December rematch, the highest rate allowed by the Pats in any game this season.

The difference between the two games from the Pats' perspective, again, came in the red zone. This was the league's third-best red zone offense against its worst red zone defense. In the first game, the Patriots allowed the Bills to make four trips into the red zone, but they came up with an interception and forced a field goal. The Bills also fumbled the ball away inside their own 10-yard line, handing the Pats a short field that they turned into three critical points.

In the rematch, the Bills were merciless. They made five trips into the red zone and scored five touchdowns. (They did technically make a sixth trip, although that ended with Josh Allen kneeling to end the game.) Allen & Co. faced a third down only twice during those five drives while they were inside the red zone. Red zone performance can be inconsistent, and the Patriots will have defensive tackle Milton Williams, who was missing for the December game, but this was their soft spot all season. And I wouldn't want to face a Bills offense using all four downs and willing to throw Allen into the run game with a chance to make it to the Super Bowl.

Again, this would be a matchup of a defense with great cornerbacks and less imposing linebackers and safeties in coverage facing a Bills offense that just wants to exploit those middle-field defenders with bigger personnel groupings. I don't anticipate Maye and the offense shutting down in the second half again, but I'm not confident the Pats can stop Allen for four quarters.

Prediction: Bills 31, Patriots 27

Hey, look, another rubber match in a conference championship game! We've seen these teams play eight quarters of football, and for most of that time, the Rams have controlled the action. They've forced Sam Darnold to throw six interceptions, won the first game handily and were in control of the second game with a 30-14 lead and nine minutes to go.

Of course, what happened next mattered. A Rams team that had scored on its six prior possessions against an elite Seahawks defense failed to score on five drives in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks got a punt return touchdown, then took advantage of a short field after a shanked punt to tie the game. Harrison Mevis missed a 47-yard field goal that would have given the Rams the lead in regulation. And in overtime, the Seahawks responded to a Rams touchdown by marching down the field, scoring and picking up a two-pointer to win the game. All that matters.

I'm just not positive it overcomes the majority of what we've seen between these teams. While the Seahawks did slow the league's most efficient run game in the second matchup, Matthew Stafford threw for 457 yards on 49 dropbacks without being sacked. The Seahawks haven't found a way to cover Rams receiver Puka Nacua, and while they shut down the 13 personnel groupings in the first matchup, McVay was able to lean on them and score four touchdowns out of 13 personnel in the rematch. The Rams also were without receiver Davante Adams in the loss because of a hamstring injury, and the veteran standout should be back in the postseason.

Stephen A. has no faith in Sam Darnold

Stephen A. Smith details his concerns about Sam Darnold heading into the playoffs.

What's more important, though, is the two-month funk Darnold has been in since playing the Rams the first time. Darnold deserves credit for hitting a number of meaningful throws in the fourth quarter and overtime, but the Seahawks basically tried to turn him into a horizontal passer in the first half of that game to get the ball out quick and avoid mistakes, and Darnold got trapped into two interceptions afterward. I don't think the Seahawks can beat this Rams team in a rematch if they get the Darnold who has been one of the NFL's worst quarterbacks for two months.

Prediction: Rams 24, Seahawks 10

This would be fun, huh? Matthew Stafford vs. Josh Allen. Sean McVay vs. Sean McDermott. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams vs. ... Khalil Shakir and Brandin Cooks. I don't think many people would argue that the Bills have the better roster here, but they have Allen, and sometimes that's enough.

These teams played a wildly entertaining game in Los Angeles last season, with the Rams coming out on top in a 44-42 win. That game was the Allen show, as the non-Allen Bills ran for a total of only 21 yards. Allen didn't turn the ball over and wasn't sacked once, and the Bills scored six touchdowns on nine drives.

That still wasn't enough, in part because the Rams turned the only sudden change of the game into a touchdown when they blocked a punt and returned it for a 22-yard score. They gave the Bills no hope on defense, with Stafford's unit scoring five touchdowns and a field goal across its first seven meaningful possessions.

That Bills team had no answer for Nacua, who caught 12 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown and even added five carries on the ground for 16 yards and a score. I'm not sure this Bills team does, either. Maxwell Hairston might nominally have been drafted to be that sort of cornerback, but he has been sidelined by an ankle injury and has struggled with his focus and concentration at times. The Rams are the wrong sort of team to have those lapses against.

More concerningly, this would be a nightmare of a matchup for the Bills' biggest weakness, pitting the worst run defense in the postseason against one of the most efficient and consistent rushing attacks of the past decade. The Bills were 31st in EPA per play allowed when facing designed runs this season. The Rams' rushing attack was fourth in EPA per play on designated rushes, improving to second over the second half of the season. The run game mismatch would give the Bills fits and keep Allen off the field.

I do like the matchup for Buffalo on offense, where it is very comfortable running and throwing the ball out of multiple tight end groupings against lighter defenses. The Rams would face a real conflict in terms of sticking with their sub packages when the Bills come out with three tight ends, the same conflict the Rams put opposing teams in with their own offense. But the Bills can't move the ball when Allen is standing on the sideline.

If the Bills had an X receiver who could physically overwhelm Los Angeles' cornerbacks, that might be enough to swing the game their way. Amari Cooper, of all people, had 95 yards and a whopping 14 targets when these two teams played a year ago. Because the Bills don't have that guy, though, Allen would need to be perfect to keep up with Stafford, Nacua and the Rams' run game. Allen was something close to that when these two teams played last season, and the Bills still lost. Allen has turned the ball over and taken sacks more often this season, and while he's capable of being the best player on the planet in any single game, I'm not certain he can singlehandedly beat the better team in this matchup.