After Venezuela, alarm bells in Mexico, Colombia, Cuba: What’s behind Trump’s latest threats?

Soon after the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, US President Donald Trump threatened action against two other Latin American nations — Colombia and Mexico — if they failed to reduce the flow of illicit drugs into the US. He added that Cuba, a close ally of Venezuela, “looks like it’s ready to fall” on its own.

It’s not just the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, which asserts the western hemisphere as a zone of US influence, that’s behind these threats. A mixture of factors such as ideology, drugs, immigration and strategic partners is also behind Trump’s ire.

In a joint statement, the governments of Spain, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Uruguay said that the US actions “constitute an extremely dangerous precedent for peace and regional security and endanger the civilian population”.

Colombia has traditionally been a major ally of the US and its closest security partner in South America over the past 25 years. Since the US-Colombia Free Trade Agreement was passed in 2012, the US has been Colombia’s largest trading partner, accounting for 34% of the country’s total trade.

Colombia also comprised $5.4 billion of the $16 billion in US crude oil imports in 2023. Coffee and roses are also major Colombian exports. However, Colombia is best known today as the leading global producer of the illicit drug cocaine, as well as the coca plant from which it is derived. It accounts for over two-thirds of the total production of the drug, and the plant.

In the past, the US has helped Colombia with financial assistance to fight the war on drugs. This has yielded mixed success – while incidents of political violence have largely reduced and the country was able to demobilise extremist groups, production of coca and cocaine has grown since 2013.

There were 1.6 million people of Colombian origin recorded in the US in 2021, or one in four South American immigrants. However, bilateral relations have been strained ever since Gustavo Petro became Colombia’s first-ever leftist president, seeking to distance the country from the US.

While US president Joe Biden designated Colombia as a major non-NATO US ally in 2022, Petro has been unwilling to cooperate with US-backed drug policies, expressed an interest in joining the BRICS+ grouping, which is regarded as a prominent critic of Western hegemony, and decided to break ties with Israel, a major US ally.

Under Trump, these relations have devolved further. In January 2025, his administration threatened major repercussions against Colombia after initially refusing to accept US military aircraft carrying Colombian deportees. Trump’s move to cut US foreign assistance, tariff announcements and the recent US military build-up in the Caribbean Sea have all earned Petro’s consternation.

Over the weekend, Petro called the US attacks on Venezuela an “assault on the sovereignty” of Latin America that would lead to a humanitarian crisis.

The US and Mexico share a chequered history over centuries, but today, they share deep economic ties. Mexico was the US’s largest trading partner in 2023, accounting for $798.9 billion in total goods. The implementation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2020 has helped to boost bilateral trade.

The 3,145-km border, however, has posed significant challenges, most notably the movement of undocumented immigrants and illicit drugs. Mexico also leads in the global production and trafficking of fentanyl, a highly potent synthetic drug, which has contributed to a rise in drug overdoses in the US, the report noted.

Trump’s first presidential campaign succeeded in part because of his promise to erect a border wall between the US and Mexico, promising that Mexico would fund its construction. This was a bust. Subsequently, the two nations agreed to curtail the flow of illegal immigrants into the US with a stricter asylum programme.

On returning to the White House last January, Trump sought to revive construction on the wall. He also announced punitive tariffs against Canada, China and Mexico for failing to curb fentanyl trafficking. He also designated eight Latin American criminal organisations have been designated as Foreign Terrorist Organisations, and threatened to launch drone strikes into Mexico to combat drug trafficking.

His proposal to allow American troops into Mexico to fight suspected Mexican drug cartels last April was rebuffed by Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum.

Unlike the other two countries, the US has historically had a troubled relationship with Cuba. Today, Cuba remains dependent on Venezuela for oil, and has received large-scale foreign investment from China and Russia. With the fate of the Venezuelan economy uncertain, Cuba may turn to Russia, building on their increased military and economic cooperation in recent years.

During the Cold War, a group of revolutionaries led by Fidel Castro seized control of Havana, the capital, and overthrew Fulgencio Batista’s US-backed government. Following the Cuban revolution, the new regime sought to distance itself from the US – deepening ties with the Soviet Union, nationalising American-owned properties and placing tariffs on US imports.

The US responded in kind, imposing economic sanctions and strict travel restrictions, despite recognising Fidel Castro as the new leader. During this period, the US attempted to invade Cuba to unseat Castro in the infamous Bay of Pigs invasion, failing to do so. This result proved to be a decisive point in the Cold War, pushing Castro closer to the Soviet Union and its leader, Nikita Krushchev.

Subsequent US administrations bolstered the American sanctions and trade embargo, with US President Ronald Reagan designating Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism in 1982. As a result, the Cuban GDP declined by 35% between 1989 and 1993.

It was only in 2008 that the first real efforts at normalising bilateral relations would be made, under President Barack Obama, who eased the travel restrictions and allowed Cubans in the US to send remittances back home. A full restoration of diplomatic ties in 2014 meant the removal of Cuba’s terrorism sponsor designation. The two nations reopened their embassies and signed a series of bilateral agreements.

However, any progress thus made was completely reversed by Trump’s ascent to the White House. In his first term, Trump doubled down on the goods embargo, and reintroduced sanctions on Cuba over its growing proximity to Venezuela. The first Trump administration sought to limit oil exports from Venezuela into Cuba, banned Cuban officials from entering the US and redesignated Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism.

In his second term, Trump reversed Biden-era initiatives, which had restored Obama-era normalisation measures. Additionally, Trump introduced sanctions targeted towards Cuba’s tourism industry, a major driver of the Cuban economy, which contributed 10% of GDP before the Covid pandemic. Since 2020, Cuba has been in an economic recession, with its GDP contracting 1.1% and inflation at 24% in 2024.

On Sunday, Trump said that the Cuban economy is in tatters and will slide further now with the ouster of Maduro, who provided the Caribbean island with subsidised oil. “It’s going down. It’s going down for the count.” Trump said of Cuba.