Project-75I: How India’s $8 billion submarine upgrade reshapes the Pakistan, China equation | India News

NEW DELHI: More than five decades after Indian naval strikes crippled Karachi during the 1971 war, undersea power is once again at the heart of New Delhi’s strategic thinking. As German Chancellor Friedrich Merz began his visit to India on Monday amid a more volatile regional and global security environment, discussions around Project-75I have acquired fresh urgency.The Indian Navy’s plan to induct six next-generation conventional submarines equipped with air-independent propulsion reflects a convergence of hard lessons from history, renewed friction with Pakistan following recent crises, and China’s expanding undersea presence in the Indian Ocean. Together, these factors are pushing India towards one of its most consequential naval procurement decisions in years, one that blends deterrence, indigenisation and long-term strategic signalling.

The project envisages indigenous construction, long-term technology transfer and the creation of a domestic submarine-building ecosystem. The estimated cost was over Rs 40,000 crore at the RFP stage, with current assessments placing the final contract value closer to $8 billion, or about Rs 72,000 crore, based on configuration and lifecycle support.For the Indian Navy, the programme addresses a critical gap.

Its conventional submarine fleet is ageing even as undersea activity by China and Pakistan increases in the Indian Ocean and along India’s maritime approaches.

AIP allows submarines to remain submerged for weeks without surfacing or snorkeling, reducing detection risk. In contested waters, endurance and silence are decisive. The Type-214’s AIP technology is widely regarded as operationally proven, while competing systems are still undergoing validation.In undersea warfare, reliability and survivability often outweigh novelty. That calculus appears to have guided the Navy’s choice.

MDL’s prior experience building Scorpène-class submarines under the earlier Project-75 strengthened its case as the Indian strategic partner.

The ministry of defence has repeatedly stressed that Project-75I is not only about acquiring platforms but about absorbing complex submarine design and construction technologies, as outlined in the 2021 PIB release.

During the 1971 war, the Indian Navy’s attacks on Karachi port crippled Pakistan’s maritime logistics and fuel supply, accelerating Islamabad’s defeat. That episode stressed how control of the seas can shape outcomes on land.The relevance of that lesson resurfaced during Operation Sindoor in May 2025, when tensions with Pakistan escalated following a major terror provocation. Between May 8 and May 11, India placed its naval forces on heightened readiness, with Karachi again emerging as Pakistan’s most critical vulnerability.

Karachi handles the bulk of Pakistan’s maritime trade and energy imports. India’s ability to credibly threaten that hub, even without firing a shot, highlighted the deterrent value of naval and undersea power. New submarines with extended underwater endurance would sharpen that leverage.

Chinese submarines have docked at regional ports and conducted patrols close to Indian waters, while Pakistan, with Chinese assistance, is also upgrading its submarine arm. For Indian planners, this twin challenge has made restoring conventional submarine strength an urgent priority.

Project-75I is designed to plug that gap by giving India a survivable, persistent undersea capability suited to monitoring choke points, tracking adversary submarines and conducting sea-denial operations.

The project will serve as a bridge to the future P-76, under which conventional submarines will be constructed based on totally indigenous design,” a source told TOI.Despite the pause on the Scorpene extension, officials indicated that France’s broader strategic partnership with India remained strong. Negotiations progressed on additional Rafale fighters for the Indian Air Force’s proposed 114 multi-role fighter aircraft programme, as well as a collaboration to co-develop a powerful jet engine with French major Safran for India’s fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft was nearly finalised.At the time, the Navy’s conventional submarine strength stood at six Scorpenes, six ageing Russian Kilo-class boats and four German HDW submarines, alongside two nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. China, by comparison, operated more than 50 diesel-electric and around 10 nuclear submarines and was in the process of supplying eight Yuan-class AIP-equipped submarines to Pakistan, a development seen as a major capability boost for Islamabad, TOI reported.

MDL’s role would be strengthened, and a specialised domestic supply chain would be deepened.

Project-75I marks one of the most consequential naval procurement decisions India has taken in years. It addresses hard lessons from 1971, recent operational realities with Pakistan, and the growing challenge posed by China’s undersea expansion.As Germany’s chancellor arrives in India, the submarine negotiations underscore how defence industrial cooperation has become central to New Delhi’s foreign policy. From Karachi’s burning docks in 1971 to the silent depths of the Indian Ocean today, India’s maritime strategy is being reshaped through capability, indigenisation and strategic foresight.