US tariff impact: India is finding newer markets, strengthening old trade routes to compensate

Last month, we noted that India’s trade data for November had shown a continued resilience in exports despite mounting U.S. tariffs. Not only did India’s overall exports grow, but shipments to the U.S. also rebounded. However, the exact drivers were harder to discern at the time, as detailed data were still awaited.

Foreign Trade Performance Analysis data show several new trends. This analysis focuses only on items where India’s export dependence on the U.S. was already significant. To isolate the impact of the tariffs, the figures for September through November 2025 were compared against the 2023-24 average for those same months.

As shown in the chart below, not all commodities exported to the U.S. were impacted by tariffs. Notably, exports of telecom instruments to the U.S. — most of which are not tariffed, particularly smartphones — surged by 237% between the periods considered. Exports of electrical machinery also grew by 15%.

That brings us to the items hit by the U.S. tariffs and other challenges. Exports of pearls and precious stones declined by about 78.5% between the periods considered. Gold jewellery exports to the U.S. declined by 39%, cotton fabrics by 23%, marine products by 17% and readymade cotton by 4.6%.

Overall, the surge in smartphone exports to the U.S. masked the decline in sectors hit by tariffs. This explains why total exports to the U.S. rose despite the new duties. But what about the items that did suffer?

The explanation follows two distinct paths: for some commodities, the blow from U.S. tariffs was partially blunted, while for others, Indian exporters managed to not only absorb the hit but also increase overall exports by diversifying into other markets. The chart below shows the change in total exports between September-November 2025 and the 2023-24 average for the same months

Consider marine products, where overall exports grew by roughly 17% between the considered periods, despite a near-identical decline in shipments to the U.S. Moreover, the U.S. continued to be a dominant buyer in 2025 with a market share exceeding 30%.

So, exporters did more than just absorb the blow in a traditionally dependent market; they also pivoted to other destinations, driving total export even higher than before in marine products. As shown in the table below, marine exports to China — already a robust buyer — grew by 23% during the same period.

Simultaneously, India made significant inroads into relatively newer territories — between September and November 2025, India exported over $50 million worth of marine products to Spain.

This expansion extended across Europe, with marine shipments to Belgium surging by 124%, while exports to the Netherlands (56%), Germany (65%), and Italy (23%) all posted substantial gains. So, the gap left by the U.S. was filled by a mix of strengthening alliances and discovering new ones.

“Shipments to the EU and China have increased over the past few months. We request the Centre to intervene and have Free Trade Agreements with other countries to help the aqua sector,” Seafood Exporters Association of India (SEAI) Andhra Pradesh president K. Anand Kumar said.

A similar strategy was recorded in the case of readymade cotton garments also, with increases in exports to European markets helping here too. The table below shows India’s readymade cotton garments exports to various countries between September to November of 2025

“The Rupee at 90 is a good instrument for Indian exporters to locate new markets. It helps push exports to various markets,” said Siddhartha Rajagopal, Executive Director of the Cotton Textiles Export Promotion Council.

With inputs from Rajulapudi Srinivas and M. Soundariya Preetha