Beyond the drills: Why China’s ‘Justice Mission 2025’ is the boldest warning to the US, Taiwan yet

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) fired off rockets near Taiwan and conducted military drills for a second day on Tuesday (December 30), as part of its “Justice Mission 2025”.

In response, Taiwan termed the Chinese government “the biggest destroyer of peace.” Several media reports indicated that these were among the largest drills conducted near Taiwan in recent years.

When asked to react to these events, US President Donald Trump told reporters that China has been “doing naval exercises for 20 years in that area”. He said he was not worried about the possibility of an attack on the island, which is located about 160 km off the southeastern coast of China. However, China’s official messaging directly targeted the United States government and its support for the government of Taiwan.

What happens during these drills?

Such drills usually involve flybys and military planes entering Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ). These zones are self-determined by countries, beyond the official airspace that extends 12 nautical miles beyond the shoreline (what are called territorial waters). Countries monitor and identify aircraft in the ADIZ region in the interest of national security.

Over two days, Chinese naval and air force units also simulated strikes on maritime and aerial targets and carried out anti-submarine drills around the island, according to a Reuters report.

China is known to conduct such drills and engage in heightened military activity near the island, which it claims as its own territory, and it has not ruled out the use of force to seize control. Taiwan has its own democratically elected government and political system, but China has cited historical claims as the basis of the “reunification” rhetoric.

While Taiwan has historically been an important strategic concern for China, its actions have increasingly taken an aggressive posture under President Xi Jinping, who has led the Chinese Communist Party since 2012. Another factor at play is Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which has been in power continuously for almost a decade. DPP leaders, including President Lai Ching-te, have increasingly asserted that Taiwan is already an independent nation. The Chinese government, in turn, has referred to the DPP as “separatists”.

A recent US Department of Defense report said that “From 2020 to 2024, China has increased the scope, scale, and frequency of its military pressure activities against Taiwan… via routine air and maritime incursions.” It added that this was “on top of the increasing quantity of day-to-day PLA aircraft and ships patrolling around Taiwan and the steady cadence of near weekly joint patrols pressing Taiwan.”

Other analyses have also confirmed the increased frequency. The Guardian recently reported: “In 2022, 1,727 Chinese military planes flew into Taiwan’s de facto ADIZ, double the previous year’s total… In 2024, there were more than 3,000.”

And what message does China want to send through the drills?

The current round of drills follows the US government’s recent approval of the sale of weapons worth $11 billion to Taiwan.

The US and Taiwan do not have official diplomatic ties, since countries that recognise China cannot do the same for Taiwan, under the “One China” policy. However, under several agreements between China and the US (known as the Three Communiques), the US government is allowed to “maintain cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan.”

The Third Communique of 1982 specifically mentioned arms sales. While China wanted the US to gradually reduce such sales, the US government stated that this would not be done unconditionally.

Then US President Ronald Reagan wrote in an internal memo, “The U.S. willingness to reduce its arms sales to Taiwan is conditioned absolutely upon the continued commitment of China to the peaceful solution of the Taiwan-PRC [People’s Republic of China] differences. It should be clearly understood that the linkage between these two matters is a permanent imperative of U.S. foreign policy.” Thus, the US made the prospect of any future sales to Taiwan “conditioned entirely on the threat posed by the PRC”.

It also comes after weeks of diplomatic tensions between China and Japan over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments about Japan militarily intervening if China chose to attack Taiwan in the future.

An official Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson described the drills as “a punitive and deterrent action against separatist forces who seek ‘Taiwan independence’ through military buildup.” The drills were described as “necessary” for defending national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

An editorial in the official state media organisation Xinhua further specified their targets, saying that the drills were “a clear reminder for the DPP that the trend of national reunification is unstoppable, and that the will of the people cannot be defied”.

“The DPP’s fanciful attempts to pursue ‘Taiwan independence’ by relying on US support will only heighten tensions in the Taiwan strait and push the island’s residents toward the brink of conflicts,” it added.