Ideology, incumbency, polarisation: Key Indian elections to watch in 2026

As India heads into a politically charged 2026, four key States and a Union Territory are heading for Assembly elections. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will try to breach the southern obstacle to continue its winning streak, and a fragmented Opposition will fight to stop the saffron party’s juggernaut.

Incumbency could be tested, while language, central-State relations and migration, besides communal polarisation, could be the major poll planks in most of the States going to elections this year.

The Election Commission of India has sounded the poll bugle with the announcement of a Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls, which the poll body says is a clean-up process. This very process has turned into a political row with poll-bound States seeing lakhs of names deleted from the draft rolls. While the BJP and its allies support the Election Commission’s stand, the Opposition parties cry foul, saying it paves the way for disenfranchisement. The Congress has gone one step further and alleged that the ECI, in connivance with the ruling party, is indulging in ‘vote theft’. The Opposition’s campaign has not converted into electoral wins last year; will it bear fruits this year?

Here are the upcoming elections that you can keep track of in 2026 and why it matters the most.

Elections are scheduled for the north-eastern State of Assam in March–April 2026 to elect its 126 members. It is the home turf of BJP leader and Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who rose to become a prominent face and strategist for the party within a few years of joining. The Congress, on the other hand, is pushing forward the idea of an “anti-people BJP government”, with Lok Sabha Deputy Leader of the Opposition Gaurav Gogoi emerging as the lead voice, alongside other regional alliances. The AIDUF has established itself as a key party in the State and is popular among Muslims.

The Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) is also a prominent player. The party, led by Hagrama Mohilary—a maverick former extremist who ruled the Bodoland Territorial Council for 17 years until 2020 — won 28 of the autonomous council’s 40 seats, dislodging the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) and the BJP from power.

“Illegal migration”, both from within the country and across the border has been a contentious issue in the State. Assam has witnessed several protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act granting Indian citizenship to persecuted religious minorities from neighbouring countries.

A renewed push on NRC and the protection of Assamese identity remain key talking points for the BJP and its allies. The Congress on the other hand projects itself as a party that would stand against religious hatred.

The elections in Tamil Nadu will be a contest between DMK’s ‘Dravidian ideology’ focusing on social justice, State autonomy, rationalism, and Tamil identity, against the BJP’s national push for Hindutva. The DMK is seeking a second consecutive term under Chief Minister M.K. Stalin, who has “fixed a target” of 2.5 crore votes for the DMK-led alliance, citing its 2.09 crore votes in the 2021 Assembly election and the 1.86 crore beneficiaries of the government’s welfare schemes.

The AIADMK, is also banking on the performance put up by it and its key ally, BJP during the 2024 Lok Sabha election. At that time, the two parties headed separate coalitions, which, put together, obtained around 41% of votes polled. The NDA, headed by AIADMK in the state, is also targetting the government on various issues such as women’s safety, drug menace, and the rising debts of the State.

The State saw more than 97.3 lakh electors removed from the draft roll, which is the highest number of deletions in the country. The DMK and AIADMK are being vigilant against the deletion of genuine voters in order to keep their vote bank intact and mobilise them around the elections.

Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) founded by popular Tamil actor Vijay, which will be entering the electoral fray for the first time, is said to be basing its strength on its belief that on the ground that it has at least one supporter in every ration card out of a total 2.28 crore ration cards in the State.

Kerala is also set for polls in mid-year. The factor of incumbency will play a major role in the polls with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan leading the Left Democratic Front (LDF), which currently holds a strong majority in the 140-seat Assembly. However, the revival of the United Democratic Front (UDF) in the recently concluded local polls reflects the shift of momentum in the State. The UDF led in overall vote share with around 38.8% and won a majority of gram panchayats, block panchayats, municipalities, and four of the six municipal corporations.

The inroads made by the BJP in the State, with a historic win in the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal election, make them a serious contender, taking away the fight from being a duopoly traditionally.

Kerala is also the only State ruled by Left parties.

The Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, has been in power for the past 15 years in West Bengal. The strong presence of Ms. Banerjee as a leader will certainly face pressure of incumbency as the BJP raises the issue of illegal immigration, law and order, and allegations of “mahajungle raj”

Despite BJP’s claims of over one crore “illegal migrants” in the State, the draft electoral roll published after the SIR process excluded over 58 lakh electors. The TMC has raised objections over the SIR process in the State, including the deployment of 4,500 micro-observers. Ms Banerjee continues to criticise the Centre’s discrimination in terms of allocation of funds towards Bengal, leading to a lack of infrastructural development in the State. The TMC also continues to use the “Bangla Nijer Meyekei Chaye” (Bengal wants its own daughter) narrative to paint the BJP as a party of “outsiders”.

Back in February 2025, Ms. Banerjee announced that the TMC would go solo in the upcoming polls, stating that the Congress has no base in West Bengal and that the TMC would not try to strengthen the Opposition alliance at its own cost. The Left bloc and Congress fought the Lok Sabha elections together, but they fell out after the combine won just one seat.

The Puducherry election is set to be a closely watched contest, with major parties like the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC), Indian National Congress (INC), and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) vying for control of the 30-member House. The Puducherry Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) is set to carry out a 15-day-long yatra covering the 23 constituencies in the Puducherry region of the Union Territory in January 2026. Meanwhile, the BJP’s new working president recently concluded his visit to the Union Territory. Chief Minister N. Rangasamy, while answering the repeated questions on whether his party’s alliance with the BJP will continue for 2026 Assembly polls, said “we are having an NDA government in Puducherry”.

The Rajya Sabha elections are on the cards, with around 75 seats becoming vacant as members’ six-year terms end throughout the year. Vacancies will arise across States including Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and several northeastern States. Key leaders whose terms will end in 2026 include Mallikarjun Kharge, Sharad Pawar, H.D. Deve Gowda, and Digvijaya Singh, among others, adding further political interest to the upcoming candidate lists.

The BJP, which is currently the largest party in the upper House, is 20 seats short of majority. The NDA is also 31 seats short of a two-third majority, which is needed to pass constitutional amendements. The ruling alliance is hoping to bridge this number in the coming year.