How Arctic thaw aggravates climate concerns, ignites geopolitical competition 

The recently published ‘Arctic Report Card 2025’ by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revealed that this year the Arctic experienced its highest air temperatures in the last 125 years of recorded meteorological history. The last 10 years have been the 10 warmest on record in the Arctic.

Shrinking glaciers, continued warming of the ocean, unprecedented extreme weather events, as well as record heat and record low sea ice are among the major drivers behind the changes in this once reliably frozen region. Although the melting of the Arctic has accelerated climatic concerns globally, it is also seen as creating economic prospects, including new maritime trade routes and access to the region’s incredible natural resources.

Therefore, many countries, including India, are seeing the Arctic as a region of emerging strategic and economic significance. In this context, the Joint statement issued by India and Russia during President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Delhi highlighted India’s interest in playing an active role as an Observer in the Arctic Council and in deepening trade and investment cooperation in the Far East and the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, preferably through the Northern Sea Route (NSR).

But why is the Arctic considered a unique geographical region? How does its melting impact ecosystems, wildlife and local populations? What are its geopolitical implications, and how does India seek to advance its Arctic interests?

The Arctic, the northernmost part of the Earth, covers 4 per cent of the global area and is characterised by harsh climate, very low population density and underdeveloped resources. It is the region where North America, Europe and Asia all three continents meet.

Politically, the Arctic region is governed by the Arctic Council, which has eight circumpolar countries as its members: the US, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, Greenland/Denmark, Finland, and Canada.

The Arctic is rich in natural resources like critical minerals, oil, and natural gas. The melting of ice is making the region more accessible through new maritime routes thus making it prone to resource exploitation. Melting of sea ice in this region can drastically reduce the travel time between Europe and Asia, making the region economically and strategically very important.

The Arctic is warming more than twice as fast as the global average – a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Rising temperatures increase evaporation and precipitation and lead to intensification of ‘atmospheric rivers’, which are relatively long, narrow regions in the atmosphere like rivers in the sky. Rising temperatures also induce thawing of permafrost, which releases iron and other toxic metals, thus rusting rivers, degrading their water quality, habitat and biodiversity.

The Arctic generally remains snow-covered for much of the year. During this winter, this snowpack was above average but rapid melting occurred in the following spring months. The June snow cover was half of what it was in the 1960s. Losing snow cover in late spring and summer months also means exposed surface, which lowers the albedo of the region. This results in more absorption of direct sun rays, further increasing the warming of the region.

The sea ice is also vanishing faster, as seen in March, a month which registered the maximum snow extent of the year, recorded its lowest in the 47-year satellite record. The oldest and thickest Arctic sea ice (ice with more than 4 years of lifespan) has witnessed more than 95 per cent decline since the 1980s.

Another significant consequence is Atlantification – a process where water properties of the Atlantic Ocean located in lower latitudes reach into the Arctic Ocean. Driven mostly by climate change, this phenomenon is increasing and has reached the central Arctic Ocean, causing significant changes like ocean warming, increased mixing of layers of different densities, sea ice loss, shifts in natural ecosystems and threatening ocean circulation patterns. The warmer Arctic is witnessing a rise in phytoplankton productivity and chlorophyll, reshaping fisheries and food security.

But these physical and ecological transformations have direct geopolitical consequences, too.

The thawing of sea ice in the Arctic, coupled with modern technology that facilitated advances in navigation, satellite monitoring, etc., has opened maritime routes through previously unnavigable waters. Northern Sea Route (NSR), also known as Northeast Passage (NEP), is an Arctic shipping route connecting the Pacific with the Atlantic Ocean. Earlier, it was inaccessible due to the presence of thick sea ice, but climate change has led to the receding and thinning of this ice.

Growing concerns over energy security and increasing demand for critical minerals are the primary reasons why many countries are looking towards the Arctic’s largely unexploited natural resources. For example, China is not an Arctic state but declared itself a ‘near-Arctic state’. In 2018, it initiated a “Polar Silk Road” project through developing the Arctic shipping routes as a part of its Belt and Road Initiative.

Notably, there is also a lack of cooperation and consensus among Arctic states. The situation worsened following the Russian invasion of Crimea (2014) and its ongoing war with Ukraine. Subsequently, Finland (2023) and Sweden (2024) joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), making all the members of the Arctic Council part of this military alliance except Russia.

The lack of cooperation, overlapping claims, and geopolitical uncertainties are prompting countries to establish their presence. China and other non-Arctic countries, including India, want to see the Arctic as an internationalized area accessible to all countries.

Russia, isolated by Western sanctions, is seeking partners to develop the NSR, which requires a lot of investment in infrastructure development and modern technologies such as ice-breaking ships. It is also of great interest for countries like China and India as NSR can reduce the distance between Eastern Asia and Europe by 40 per cent compared to the present Suez Canal route.

India has a long association with the Arctic, as it is one of the signatories of the Svalbard Treaty signed on 9 February 1920 in Paris. However, it was not until 2007 that India’s first scientific expedition to the Arctic was launched, and a research station, Himadri, was established in the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard in 2008.

India got observer status in the Arctic Council in 2013. In 2022, it released its Arctic Policy, which lays down six key pillars: 1. Strengthening India’s scientific research and cooperation.

2. Climate and environmental protection. 3. Economic and human development.

4. Transportation and connectivity. 5. Governance and international cooperation.

6. National capacity building in the Arctic region.

A study by India’s National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR) in 2024 shows that melting in the Arctic impacts upper atmospheric circulation (e.g., Rossby waves and Jet streams), which could also increase the unpredictability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR).

Since 2021, India has been supporting infrastructure development for the Northern Sea Route with Russia to diversify its supply of energy resources and critical minerals. Through this, India wants to further enhance the infrastructure capacity of its Chennai-Vladivostok route, which became operational in 2024. This route reduces the travel time between India and Europe by about two weeks.

In contrast to the Antarctic, where natural resources are protected by the Madrid Protocol of 1991, the Arctic lacks such protection. If the climatic trends move in the current direction, it will increase accessibility and commercial activities like mining and oil and gas exploration.

India can utilise its experiences of working in similar other cryosphere regions like the Antarctic and the Himalayas. It needs to invest in strengthening its scientific capabilities, climate monitoring and research on the impact of the warmer Arctic on the Indian monsoon.

Cooperation and meaningful engagement with all the Arctic states, alongside noted diplomatic presence would help Delhi fulfil its Arctic ambitions. The future of the Arctic will be shaped by the cooperation between countries of the Third Pole (e.g. China, India) with that of the North Pole.

Finally, cooperation and constructive engagement with all Arctic states, along with a credible diplomatic and scientific presence, will be essential for advancing India’s Arctic interests. The future governance of the Arctic is increasingly shaped by interactions between the North Pole states and emerging stakeholders from the “Third Pole”, including countries such as India and China, making inclusive and rules-based cooperation imperative.

How does the loss of Arctic sea ice and snow cover alter the Earth’s albedo balance, and what are its long-term implications for global climate systems?

Explain the process of Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean. How does it affect ocean circulation and marine ecosystems? Discuss the impact of permafrost thaw on Arctic river systems and biodiversity. Why is this a matter of global environmental concern?

Critically examine the role of the Arctic Council in managing environmental and geopolitical challenges arising from Arctic melting.

Analyse how Arctic melting influences India’s climate security, particularly monsoon behaviour and extreme weather events.

Evaluate India’s Arctic Policy, 2022 in the context of emerging environmental, economic, and geopolitical challenges in the Arctic region. How can India leverage its experience in the Himalayan and Antarctic regions to contribute to sustainable Arctic governance?

(Abhinav Rai is a Doctoral candidate at the Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi.)

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