Beyond fiscal math, why Congress data head’s post on Tamil Nadu debt has touched a political nerve

On December 28, Praveen Chakravarty, the head of the Congress’ data analytics wing, described Tamil Nadu’s debt position as “alarming”, citing its absolute outstanding liabilities, rising interest burden and debt-to-GSDP ratio.

His post on X sparked a debate across political circles — not just over the fiscal arithmetic, but also because of who was saying this, and when.

The remarks by Chakravarty, who also heads the All India Professionals’ Congress, come at a time when the Congress is beginning its poll negotiations with the DMK, and as it quietly reassesses its long-term relevance in the state.

The moment has raised questions over ideological direction, leadership anxieties, and internal coherence within a party struggling to define its future in a state it once ruled.

In his post on X, Chakravarty said Tamil Nadu has the highest outstanding debt of all states, calling the situation “alarming”.

He also posted that while Uttar Pradesh had more than double the debt of Tamil Nadu in 2010, TN now had higher debt than UP.

“TN’s interest burden (%) is 3rd highest after PB & HR… TN’s debt/gdp is still much higher than pre-covid levels,” he posted.

Experts disagree with Chakravarty’s view about the Tamil Nadu economy, which is one of the fastest growing in the country. The state has a strong manufacturing base, a diversified services sector, and a high level of urbanisation — factors that allow an economy to carry and service debt.

One expert, Madras Institute of Development Studies Director M Suresh Babu, told The Indian Express that Tamil Nadu’s debt needs to be viewed alongside its growth trajectory.

“There is a growing tendency to compare absolute numbers, much like how global economic rankings are often cited without context. But absolute figures can be misleading. What matters is not the size of the economy or debt in isolation, but how those numbers relate to underlying capacity,” he said.

Babu, also a former adviser to the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, pointed out that in fiscal analysis, “what matters is the denominator — whether we are looking at per capita income or debt as a share of GDP. When that context is removed, one number gets highlighted and projected as alarming”.

“Globally, many advanced economies carry high levels of debt. What determines sustainability is not the number itself, but whether that debt is productive — whether it supports growth and generates the capacity to repay,” he said.

Babu also noted that Tamil Nadu has, in recent years, recorded one of the fastest growth rates among Indian states. “The economy is expanding, and the capacity to service debt is embedded in that growth,” he said, adding that this is often overlooked in headline-driven debates.

The economist also underlined structural constraints facing states. “Fiscal space for states is shrinking across India. At the same time, transfers from the Centre are not rising proportionately, even for better-performing states. Within those limits, Tamil Nadu has largely stayed within Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management norms.”

Calling the recent commentary “somewhat sensationalised,” he added that while no government prefers high debt levels, “it is misleading to discuss these numbers without acknowledging the broader economic context, the quality of spending, and the state’s long-term capacity to absorb and service debt.”

Yet, the controversy was never purely economic. It unfolded against the backdrop of internal tensions within the Congress, especially over its longstanding alliance with the DMK.

Half-a-dozen senior Congress leaders who spoke to The Indian Express admit that a section has grown restless with its subordinate role. The party governed Tamil Nadu from Independence till 1967. Ever since, the rule has oscillated between the Dravidian parties. And while the Congress has been part of several ruling coalitions in Tamil Nadu, it has failed to expand its organisational footprint there.

The 2026 Assembly election has intensified this anxiety. “Certain leaders who are worried about their own irrelevance in DMK are using this to disrupt the alliance with DMK,” said a senior leader.

In recent weeks, Chakravarty’s comments — and his recent meeting with actor-politician Vijay — were read as more than personal opinions. To many in the party, they appeared to signal a willingness to explore alternative political alignments.

The meeting with Vijay, confirmed by both sides, deepened that perception. While Chakravarty insisted the interaction was informal, senior leaders within the Tamil Nadu Congress were unsettled. “It creates confusion,” one leader said. Another leader said “Chakravarty has already done the unpardonable things to the DMK government”.

“Had it been any other party, he would have been sacked by the leadership. But it is very different in our party. Let it be Shashi Tharoor or Chakravarty, Sonia Gandhi or Rahul Gandhi wouldn’t take extreme steps like sacking people. They want these people to leave on their own. Chakravarty should not be exploiting that space of confused democracy to destroy us,” one senior Tamil Nadu Congress leader said.

The growing unease prompted an intervention from one of the party’s most seasoned figures. Former finance minister P Chidambaram publicly reaffirmed the Congress’s commitment to the DMK-led alliance on Thursday, making it clear that strategic decisions would not be shaped by individual statements or speculative debates.

Asked about Chakravarty’s tweet, Chidambaram said the Union government’s data released earlier this month shows Tamil Nadu registering highest nominal growth in the country. “I don’t want to engage in a public discussion with intellectuals. I don’t think I am qualified enough,” he said sarcastically.

Privately, senior leaders concede that Chidambaram’s intervention helped cool tempers. “It was necessary,” a Congress leader said. “Things were beginning to spiral. The party needed a line, and he drew it.”

With the state Congress unit torn between loyalty to a powerful ally and some individual leaders’ fear of irrelevance, the leadership in Delhi appears cautious while sections of its state leadership are impatient and restless.

According to senior Congress sources, a faction within the party believes it no longer benefits from remaining tethered to the DMK and has begun pressing Rahul Gandhi to explore an alternative alignment, even with actor-turned-politician Vijay. This group, which includes Chakravarty, Manickam Tagore and Tamil Nadu Congress Legislature Party leader S Rajesh Kumar, is learnt to be behind almost all major confrontational demands raised with DMK.

A senior state Congress leader alleged that this group is also backed by the senior central leader, K C Venugopal.

“K C Venugopal also shares the feeling that a Vijay-led formation could deliver greater political leverage. They argue that an alliance with TVK could potentially offer Congress up to 50 seats, even if the party’s actual winning chances remain uncertain,” this leader said.

They group also hopes that an alliance with Vijay would help them win in Kerala, a state where the actor has a huge fanbase.

A senior DMK leader said the developments have deeply unsettled the party, particularly as the Congress leadership in Delhi appears reluctant to rein in what is increasingly seen as a parallel line of political engagement.

“Luckily, what Rahul Gandhi needed is MPs in Delhi in 2029, not MLA seats offered here in 2026. But still, a section is trying to make Rahul Gandhi believe that Vijay is going to be the next Tamil Nadu CM, and alliance with TVK will ensure a Congress CM in Puducherry, and the same will improve Congress chances in Kerala too,” a senior Congress leader said.