Taiwan: China's massive military drills stir invasion fears

The Chinese military launched its most extensive war games around Taiwan on Monday, saying the live-fire drills would simulate a blockade of the self-governing island's key ports.

Beijing claims Taiwan as Chinese territory and has vowed to "reunify" it with the mainland by force if necessary.

The drills, code-named "Justice Mission 2025," serve as what Beijing has called a stern warning against Taiwan's "separatist forces and external interference," reported the state-run Xinhua news agency.

Taiwan, which rejects Beijing's territorial claim, urged China "not to misjudge the situation and become a troublemaker in the region."

Condemning China's move as "irrational," Taiwan's Defense Ministry said it had established an emergency response center and deployed appropriate forces to respond.

The Chinese military did not clarify how long the latest round of drills would last, but given the name of the exercise, it is widely expected to run for two days and end before the start of 2026.

In an official statement, the Chinese military said its multiple forces will conduct drills that surround Taiwan "in close proximity from different directions" to test their joint operations capabilities.

Shi Yi, the spokesperson for the Chinese military's Eastern Theater Command, also said the exercise would focus on training for maritime and aerial combat readiness patrols, sealing off key ports and areas, and conducting multidimensional deterrence.

"This indicates an effort to gain air and maritime superiority and cut off external military support," Su Tzu-yun, a research fellow at the military-backed Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei, told DW.

This marks China's seventh major round of war games around Taiwan since 2022 when then-United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island.

William Yang,  a senior Northeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank, said these types of drills simulating a blockade of Taiwan have gradually become "a routine" of their military operations.

However, Yang sounded the alarm over the shrinking window between the announcement and the start of the exercises.

"This shows that the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) is becoming increasingly capable of rapidly deploying forces to combat-ready positions," he said.

China's latest military move came days after the United States unveiled an $11.1 billion (€9.45 billion) arms sale package for Taiwan. If approved by Congress, it would be the largest-ever American weapons deal with the island.

"The PLA is testing how the US government will respond," Yang said.

Last week, Beijing imposed sanctions against 20 American defense-related companies and 10 executives as a way to protest the US arms sales to Taiwan. But Yang said these sanctions are largely "symbolic" with little real impact.

"That's why Beijing still feels the need to conduct large-scale military exercises to directly demonstrate its dissatisfaction," he added.

Relations between the world's two largest economies have remained highly competitive over the past year, even as communication channels have stayed open.

In a new national security strategy released earlier this month, the Trump administration emphasized trade competition with China, while the Pentagon's latest report to Congress highlighted China's military build-up and modernization in the context of potential preparations for a Taiwan invasion.

By launching another round of military drills, Beijing could also be testing whether the US will respond with strong actions or take a more measured approach to preserve the conditions for President Donald Trump's visit to China next year, Yang said.

In November, Trump said he agreed to visit Beijing in April and invited Chinese President Xi Jinping for a state visit later next year.

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China's announcement also came after Beijing expressed anger over comments by Japan's new nationalist Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who suggested that Japan's military could get involved if China were to take action against the island.

The tension between the two countries has sharply escalated since then, with Beijing demanding a retraction while Tokyo stands by the substance of the remarks.

Meanwhile, China's Xi has carried out a major purge of senior military officials in recent years. Recent reports have also suggested that Defense Minister Dong Jun may be under investigation, which no official announcement has confirmed.

Su, the military research fellow in Taipei, said that Takaichi's remarks and the ongoing power struggle within the PLA could have prompted the "hasty" announcement of military drills around Taiwan.

Another factor is Taiwan's current political landscape, in which the presidency is held by the ruling party while the legislature is controlled by opposition parties, which promote closer economic ties with Beijing.

Against this backdrop, several policy initiatives have encountered legislative hurdles.

Last month, Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te outlined a plan to invest an additional $40 billion over eight years in a special defense budget aimed at strengthening the island's defense capabilities. The proposal was later blocked by the opposition-controlled legislature.

"I think Beijing has also noticed this rift, which allows it to continue exerting influence," Yang told DW.

"Through this large-scale military exercise, what they [Chinese authorities] are likely hoping to see is Taiwan's opposition parties stepping up criticism of Lai, while using their advantage in the legislature to continue blocking the Lai administration's efforts to pass the defense budget."