Seoul has been putting its weight behind lowering the temperature on stalled US-North Korea denuclearisation talks. The issue remains fraught with tension: Washington has grown increasingly sceptical of the prospect of Pyongyang’s complete denuclearisation and attempts to engage North Korean leader Kim Jong-un have met with limited success.
For Pyongyang, any discussion of its nuclear programme appears to be a red line. Kim has brooked no compromise on the issue, which is domestically important and seen as a cornerstone of Pyongyang’s deterrence, as the US, South Korea and other countries continue to undertake joint military exercises.
Despite the gulf, there are signs that Seoul can lay the groundwork for reviving talks and has enough leverage to coordinate the expectations of Pyongyang and Washington.
The Trump administration has dropped any explicit pledge to ensure North Korea’s denuclearisation in its latest national security strategy. The omission sends a powerful message to Pyongyang that Washington could be open to resuming diplomatic talks where denuclearisation is not an end goal.
This generates the space to opt for softer goals, such as coordinating expectations on nuclear risk reduction. Pyongyang has tended to view US-led military exercises as a threat to regional stability and is likely to construe future drills as a challenge to its sovereignty. Seoul’s pledge to make US-South Korea military exercises an issue open to consultations can ameliorate some of North Korea’s threat perceptions and encourage its return to negotiations.
Optimism stems from several factors. First, the continuation of these exercises can saturate the space for meaningful dialogue around security needs. In 2019, the US and South Korea announced they would replace large-scale engagements with smaller exercises. Large-scale drills resumed in 2022 when Yoon Suk-yeol became president.
Pyongyang’s concern that these exercises qualify as rehearsals for invasion can be assuaged. By taking the initiative to prompt Washington to rethink the exercises – their timing, scale and stated objective – Seoul is prioritising the role of diplomatic efforts over joint military drills.