Crime fears drive South America's sharp turn to the right

This is WEEKEND EDITION from NPR News. I'm Daniel Estrin. 2025 brought seismic political change to Latin America. Conservative and even far-right leaders won elections in several South American countries. And this ideological swing comes as the Trump administration has stepped up military might and political pressure throughout the region. Here's Secretary of State Marco Rubio right before Christmas, defending the new U.S. actions in the region.

MARCO RUBIO: The goal here is to bring security and stability to the hemisphere, to the region - the region we live in, OK? - which has not received enough attention.

ESTRIN: To understand what this means for South America, we go now to NPR's correspondent Carrie Kahn in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Hello, Carrie.

CARRIE KAHN, BYLINE: Hello, Daniel.

ESTRIN: So let's start just talking about this big turn to the right in the region.

KAHN: Yes. It's been in the last few years. In some ways, it's part of the natural swings, the, you know, power alternations here. The left had big gains before but started losing major elections recently, especially in Argentina and in Ecuador last year. And this year, we saw decades of socialist rule in Bolivia fall, and an ultraconservative candidate just flipped Chile last month.

ESTRIN: So what is the big issue here for voters? Is it anti-incumbency? Is it something else?

KAHN: Partly it is. But overwhelmingly, voters are concerned about crime, violence and security and, in the case of Chile, also illegal immigration. That, to me, is the significant shift in the landscape here. When the left took power, the major emphasis back then was economic inequality, social issues, the environment. Now it's safety, and the left just has not come through with either effective policies to combat the organized crime violence or credible promises that they're going to do something better. And the right has really straightforward, tough-on-crime plans and slogans. And I'm not commenting on the quality of the right's proposals. All I'm saying is that they are resonating better with voters.

ESTRIN: OK. So what are some of those measures?

KAHN: Get tough on crime, like those made Infamous in El Salvador - the Mano Dura, Iron Fist policies that are just being emulated everywhere. Bring in the military to patrol the streets. Build maximum security prisons. Toughen sentences. And in many places, the population is more than willing to curb civil rights to combat that crime. Also, many just want to crack down on illegal immigration. Remember, nearly 8 million people have fled the authoritarian rule of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, and most have stayed here in this region. And the right has deftly conflated and merged the high crime fears and illegal immigration, like with the recent win in Chile by the ultraconservative there. He pledged to build fences, even dig huge ditches along the border, as well as start mass deportations of migrants.

ESTRIN: Wow, which sounds a lot like Trump's pledges here in the U.S.

KAHN: Yes. No surprise that Trump's policies get a very warm reception, and they're being mirrored here, too. Among conservative voters and antileft voters, his military intervention against Venezuela and drug traffickers is very popular. Trump's also stepped in for many of his favorite candidates and his allies. There was that $20 billion bailout for Argentina's far-right libertarian president, Javier Milei, that came right before he was facing a tough midterm election. And Trump pledges support for the new right leaders in Bolivia and in Chile. And the populist anticrime rhetoric is really working. Some have even coined it with the new term security populism. Will Freeman of the Council on Foreign Relations was talking to me about that. And he says it's not surprising that this is gaining so much popularity, given how powerful and rich organized crime groups have become here.

WILL FREEMAN: The sheer kind of corrupting force of that money is more than any country's institutions can really deal with.

KAHN: And we're seeing countries like Uruguay and Chile that had relatively strong institutions just falter in the face of these crime gangs.

ESTRIN: Why are these crime groups becoming so powerful right now? I mean, hasn't organized crime been a problem for a long time in Latin America?

KAHN: Sure, but they're richer than ever. They're making billions, and not just from drugs but migrant trafficking and, increasingly, illegal gold trafficking. Gold prices are soaring right now. And so is demand for drugs in the U.S. and Europe, and especially cocaine. It's on the rise, the use in the U.S., but cocaine use is at an all-time high in Europe. And so is coca production, and that happens mainly in Colombia.

So most cocaine smuggling and transportation goes through Ecuador, and I just spent a lot of time there this year. And I spent time with this one banana farmer, and I just want to tell you a little bit about him. He battles extortion and kidnapping attempts by the cartels. He told me this one story that has stuck with me so much. He was visiting friends in Europe, and they were all partying. And someone pulled out cocaine, and he said he was just floored. He told them, don't you know what that has done - your consumption has done to my country? And he said just - the people at the party just could not connect the dots with him.

ESTRIN: Oh, wow. Are we going to see more of this shift to the right in the coming year?

KAHN: We have some big elections next year - here in Brazil, where leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is struggling with his own messaging problems and his age. He's 80. In Colombia, leftist President Gustavo Petro has taken on a very public fight with President Trump. Not sure how his party's going to fare there. And security is still going to dominate politics. That's a given. It doesn't look like gold prices are plunging or the drug supply or demand is dropping, so these gangs and their corruption, their power and their violence will still be top issues for voters here.

ESTRIN: OK. NPR's Carrie Kahn in Rio de Janeiro in Brazil talking about the shift to the right and far right in South America. Thank you, Carrie.

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