Silver at record highs: Can the rally sustain to cross $100 in January?

Silver prices traded above $91 per ounce today on COMEX, intensifying speculation over whether the white metal could breach the psychological $100 per ounce mark before January ends.

The rally, which has gained steam in recent sessions, is being closely monitored by market participants as a mix of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and structural factors converge to fuel bullish sentiment.

Driving this surge is a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand.

Jigar Trivedi of Reliance Securities attributes the price momentum to tightening physical markets, where mine output has struggled to keep up with rising industrial consumption.

The increased use of silver in energy transition technologies, electronics, and electrification, areas where viable substitutes remain limited, is reinforcing the metal's critical role beyond just a precious asset.

This industrial push is being met with a favourable macroeconomic backdrop. Expectations of lower real interest rates and a softer US dollar are reducing the opportunity cost of holding precious metals. In parallel, geopolitical risks have heightened silver’s appeal as a safe haven investment.

Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, believes that these factors are providing solid support for silver, but adds that breaching $100 within the month may still require an extraordinary catalyst.

A sustained breakout above the $92 to $93 zone, she notes, would be an important technical step before $100 can come into realistic view.

Despite the upward momentum, caution is also being advised.

Trivedi points out that the path to $100 is unlikely to be linear, with elevated volatility, supply side responses, and potential policy surprises posing meaningful constraints. He adds that while a test of higher price bands remains plausible, long term sustainability would depend on whether structural deficits persist beyond short term speculative interest. Notably, he also sees MCX Silver March contracts potentially appreciating to Rs 300,000 per kg during the month.

Voicing a more guarded tone, author and investor Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, had also warned followers on his social media platform X that “silver is peaking”, suggesting a pullback may be imminent before the next leg up.

While reaffirming his bullish stance, stating he would buy silver up to $100, he cautioned that widespread profit booking by retail speculators could trigger a sharp correction in the near term. Kiyosaki, who has invested in silver since the 1960s, emphasised patience and urged investors to remain wary of market overexuberance.

As silver trades near its highest levels in over a decade, the market remains at a pivotal juncture. Whether the rally has enough momentum to touch the elusive $100 mark in the coming weeks will depend on a delicate interplay of industrial demand, supply constraints, macroeconomic cues, and investor behaviour.