2026: Key political flashpoints, battles to watch out for in year of reckoning

The new year is set to mark some crucial political developments that may shape the broader trajectory of politics and governance in the country. From the high-stakes state elections to some contentious legislative proposals, to leadership change or transition in major parties – 2026 is likely to be a year of reckoning for several leading political players including the ruling BJP and the principal Opposition Congress.

After a sub par performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has regained its momentum. With the exception of Jharkhand, the party has since secured victories in the Assembly elections in several states, including Delhi, Haryana, Maharashtra, and Bihar. Although the Jammu and Kashmir election was clinched by the National Conference-led Opposition, the BJP delivered a strong showing in the Jammu region, reinforcing its organisational strength there.

For the Opposition, the upcoming electoral cycle could not be more critical. It is in urgent need of political momentum, and the first test will come in the form of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections scheduled for January 15 along with 28 other municipal corporations across Maharashtra.

The control of India’s wealthiest civic body carries not just administrative power but immense symbolic value.

Following the BMC polls, a series of high-profile Assembly elections will take place in the first half of 2026, involving states like West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry.

West Bengal is going to witness one of the most closely watched contests. The principal Opposition BJP is once again mounting an aggressive challenge to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, looking to dislodge the Trinamool Congress (TMC) from power after three consecutive terms. However, the TMC’s organisational network at the grassroots and its support base remain formidable, even as Banerjee continues to command significant political capital.

Unlike some other states, political polarisation in Bengal does not automatically translate into gains for the BJP. The TMC retains the loyalty of an estimated 30% of the Muslim electorate.

The Left and the Congress, both of which failed to win a single seat in the 2021 elections, face an uphill task to merely re-establish their political relevance.

Tamil Nadu’s political landscape has been traditionally bipolar, dominated by the Dravidian majors — the DMK and the AIADMK. The ruling DMK entered this election cycle with confidence, bolstered by its welfare-driven governance model and a weakened, divided AIADMK.

However, the entry of popular film star Vijay into politics has added a layer of uncertainty. His presence raises several questions: Will he divide the Opposition vote? Will his appeal cut across party lines? Could he enter into an informal understanding with the AIADMK to prevent any vote splits.

And, will the DMK’s populist policies be sufficient to secure a second consecutive term under Chief Minister M K Stalin? The polls slated for April would answer these questions.

In Assam, the Congress faces yet another test as it attempts to return to power after a decade in the Opposition. The BJP enters the contest with a strong alliance that includes the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL). Polarising rhetoric has often worked to the BJP’s advantage in the state.

The Congress has stitched together a broad coalition involving parties such as the CPI(M), Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad, CPI, CPI(ML), Jatiya Dal-Asom, and the Karbi Anglong-based All Party Hill Leaders Conference. However, its decision not to align with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) could lead to a division of Muslim votes, potentially weakening the Opposition’s electoral prospects.

Kerala’s elections may mark a turning point in state politics. If recent local body election results are any indication, the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) appears to be on a shaky ground, while the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is buoyant. A defeat for the Left would mean that, for the first time in nearly five decades, India would have no Communist CM.

The BJP is looking to make its mark in Kerala politics, hoping to make incremental gains. It is targeting a double-digit seat tally in the upcoming state elections. The contest will also test internal equations and dynamics within the Opposition INDIA bloc as both the Left and the Congress are its major constituents.

One of the most contentious political debates during 2026 could be centred on the Narendra Modi government’s proposal for synchronised Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in the country, which is commonly referred to as “One Nation, One Election”.

Long-standing ideological goals of the BJP such as the abrogation of Article 370, the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, and the push for a Uniform Civil Code have already been pursued. Synchronised elections are now emerging as part of the party’s new political projects.

Parliament is expected to consider at least two polarising Constitution Amendment Bills: one to align the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, and another to enable the removal of Union or state ministers facing serious criminal allegations after being detained for a minimum of 30 days. Passing such amendments requires a special majority, which the BJP currently lacks in both Houses, resulting in intense political negotiations and debates.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah has set March 2026 as the deadline to eliminate the Left-wing extremism or Naxalism in the country. The past year has seen intensified anti-Maoist operations, including the killings of senior Naxal leaders and a rise in Maoists’ surrenders, in Chhattisgarh and some neighbouring states.

With limited political opposition to the Centre’s security approach against Naxals, some debates are likely to focus on comparing the NDA’s strategy with the UPA’s handling of the issue. Notably, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had once described Naxalism as “India’s most serious internal security threat”.

After an unprecedented 16-year gap, India’s decadal Census will finally begin in 2026. It will be the country’s first fully digital Census and the first since Independence to include a caste count. The initial houselisting phase will run from April to September 2026, followed by population enumeration in February 2027.

The Census delay had already led to various controversies, and the issue of delimitation—mandated after the first post-2026 Census — is expected to fuel political tensions. Southern states fear losing parliamentary representation if population becomes the sole criterion for delimitation. While the process of delimitaton will only begin once final Census data is available, the Centre is reportedly exploring alternative formulas to balance competing interests.

The BJP is going to formally install its new leadership in the first half of 2026, with Bihar minister and five-time MLA Nitin Nabin, the party’s newly-appointed national working president, set to be elected as the party president. Nabin’s challenge would be to sustain the BJP’s electoral winning streak while expanding its footprint in eastern and southern India. The Opposition grouping has remained fragmented. The Congress has signalled a renewed focus on livelihood and economic issues, planning to undertake a nationwide campaign over the replacement of the MGNREGA with the G Ram G law 2025.

The biennial elections to the Rajya Sabha for 59 seats across 17 states in April and June are likely to marginally benefit both the BJP and the Congress, with the ruling NDA expected to make more significant gains based on the existing Assembly numbers in various states.