Syria: Deadly Aleppo clashes raise fears of wider war

Tensions between Syria's government and Kurdish forces have boiled over into deadly clashes in the country's northern city of Aleppo. Since Tuesday, at least 12 civilians have been killed, while several members of government forces and one Kurdish fighter have also died, according to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. More than 60 people have been wounded.

The violence has also triggered a significant displacement crisis. Aleppo's Central Response Committee reports that 142,000 civilians have sought shelter as of Thursday. Schools are closed, and air traffic to and from the airport remains suspended.

According to Syria's government in Damascus, the military operations are "solely aimed at preserving security, preventing any armed activity within residential areas."

Damascus declared Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsoud and Achrafieh neighbourhoods, two Kurdish-held districts in the city, as "closed military zones" after humanitarian corridors allowed civilians to leave the areas on Wednesday and Thursday until midday. However, according to estimates, around 100,000 people remain trapped.

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which govern the region, denied any military targets in these areas. Instead, they accused the military of targeting civilians and warned that the conflict could drag Syria back into full-scale war..

"The Aleppo escalation carries direct implications for Syria's stability," Nanar Hawach, senior Syria analyst at the International Crisis Group, an independent organization working to prevent wars, told DW, adding that in case of a prolonged stand-off, localized violence could spread to further areas.

Meanwhile, both sides trade blame over who started the fighting while Turkish and US mediators are trying to de-escalate the situation. Stephane Dujarric, spokesman for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, also called on all actors to "immediately deescalate, exercise maximum restraint and take all measures to prevent further harm to civilians." He further urged a prompt resumption of negotiations to implement the March deal.

On March 10, 2025, three months after Syrian longtime dictator Bashar Assad was ousted by a rapid offensive led by the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces signed a landmark integration deal with Syria's interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa. The agreement stipulated an end of the hostilities between the Turkish-backed Syrian forces and the US-backed Kurdish forces.

It also specified that the Kurdish-controlled area with a population of around 2.5 million Kurdish people, and the region's significant oil- and energy sources will come under the control of the central government. The deal further underscored the recognition of Kurdish communities as part of a unified Syrian state.

The key sticking point, however, has been the inclusion of the around 60,000 Kurdish fighters into Syria's national army by the end of 2025.

In the past ten months, negotiations have been stalling and the latest clashes erupted a few days after the deadline expired.

Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, links the deadlock to fundamental political differences. "There is continued discord between the government vision for central control over the country and the SDF push for a federalized model that gives them a strong degree of continued regional autonomy," he told DW.

For Guido Steinberg, senior associate at the Berlin-based think tank German Institute for International and Security Affairs, and author of several books on terrorism in the Middle East, the positions of the Kurds and the administration in Damascus are irreconcilable.

"The Kurdish side will not give up its weapons as it would be tantamount to suicide, given what happened to the Alawites and Druze," he told DW. Since al-Sharaa assumed power, various bouts of violence against religious minorities have killed thousands.

"While Damascus detests the Kurds, it has a pragmatic leadership that wants a [unified] nation state," Steinberg said.

But he sees Damascus as too weak to force the Kurds to surrender their weapons and integrate into the Syrian army. "Without Turkish help, this will not happen," he told DW. Yet, he doubts that Turkey would seek military intervention in view of Turkey's domestic situation.

Turkey considers the SDF a terrorist organization due to its links to the now  dissolved Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. Also, observers widely agree that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to remain president for a fourth term in office. This requires a constitutional amendment for which Erdogan depends on the support of pro-Kurdish parliamentarians in the upcoming presidential elections in 2028.

On Thursday, a Turkish defence ministry official said that Turkey's military was ready to "support" Syria in its battle against Kurdish fighters if Damascus asks for help. However, another statement specified that the Syrian army was entirely responsible for the operation in Aleppo, framing Turkey as willing to assist de-escalation rather than intervene directly. Turkish Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus said that Turkey was ready "to provide all kinds of support for the immediate end of the clashes in Aleppo and the establishment of peace and stability."

Meanwhile, Crisis Group's Nanar Hawach warns that the violence in Syria's northeast compounds an already fragile political situation and severe humanitarian crisis which was prompted by more than a decade of civil war, a devastating earthquake in February 2023 and a particularly strong winter 2025-2026. "Once more, tens of thousands of displaced civilians need shelter and extended fighting will strain services in areas that are already stretched thin," Nanar told DW.

On Tuesday, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs also warnedthat, of the required $112 million (€96.2m) to deliver life-saving winter assistance, only $29 million (€24.8m) has been received, leaving a 74% gap.

Immediate priorities include emergency heating, shelter repairs, distribution of winter supplies and clearing roads to maintain access to humanitarian aid — efforts that are under increased strain due to funding shortfalls and security constraints, the UN says.