While US-China relations are likely to warm in 2026 and US President Donald Trump’s National Security Strategy strikes a comparatively softer tone, the long-term trajectory of the two nations’ rivalry remains irreversible. Strategic competition will only intensify, focusing ever more on economic and security issues in the Pacific Rim.
Notably, the Pentagon’s call for a major US military overhaul centred on the Pacific Rim could raise the risk of security confrontation. This dynamic will further accelerate the geopolitical shift of influence from the Atlantic to the Pacific.
US-China relations in 2026 are expected to be relatively stable. With two summit meetings scheduled – one in Beijing in April and another possible in mid-December at the Group of 20 summit in Florida – and the US midterm elections in November, the volatile Trump administration is likely to avoid risking ties with China to safeguard Republican electoral wins.
Adding to this summit-driven optimism, Washington’s 2025 National Security Strategy adopts a more moderate tone. It recognises China’s evolution from one of the poorest countries to a “near-peer” competitor and reclassifies it from being a strategic competitor to an economic rival, prioritising economic competition over direct geopolitical confrontation.
However, the rhetorical softening does not signal a fundamental shift in US-China strategic competition. Far from smoothing relations, this approach focuses on shoring up America’s economic foundation – rooted in the principle that economic security is fundamental to national security – while bolstering Pacific Rim security architectures. Indeed, it reflects a shift to a “pragmatic containment” strategy.
This explains China’s official indifference to concepts such as the “G2” – which garnered global attention after Trump framed his South Korea summit with President Xi Jinping in those terms – and the proposed “C5”, or “Core Five”, which was reportedly outlined in the National Security Strategy’s longer, unpublished version, and would include the United States, China, Russia, Japan and India.