Scientists predict that 2026 will be one of the hottest years since 1850, as heat-trapping emissions continue to boil the planet.
Earlier this month, data from Copernicus warned that 2025 is currently tied with 2023 as the second-warmest year on record, with the global average temperature from January to November 2025 hitting 1.48°C above preindustrial levels.
2024 remains the hottest year since records began, and the first to exceed 1.5°C over the 1850-1900 baseline.
The UK’s Met Office has released its latest outlook for the global average temperature, warning that 2026 is likely to become the fourth year where global average temperatures climb 1.4°C over the preindustrial average.
Researchers predict temperatures will reach between 1.34°C and 1.58°C, with a central estimate of 1.46°C, above the average for the preindustrial period.
“The last three years are all likely to have exceeded 1.4°C and we expect 2026 will be the fourth year in succession to do this,” says Professor Adam Scaife, who led the team behind the global forecast.
“Prior to this surge, the previous global temperature had not exceeded 1.3°C.”
In 2015, almost 200 nations signed a legally-binding treaty to hold the “increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels” and pursue efforts to “limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels”.
Dubbed The Paris Agreement, the treaty is often seen as one of the biggest environmental commitments in history. However, with rising temperatures showing no sign of slowing down, scientists fear these targets will soon be surpassed.
According to the UN, to limit global warming by 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest and decline 43 per cent by 2030.
“2024 saw the first temporary exceedance of 1.5°C, and our forecast for 2026 suggests this is possible again,” warns the Met Office’s Dr Nick Dunstone.
“This highlights how rapidly we are now approaching the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target.”
Scientists have consistently warned that exceeding the 1.5°C target risks a whole host of “severe” consequences - such as extreme weather, loss of GDP, and reduced mortality.
It’s why the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) latest report calls for a global change in direction to secure a healthy planet and “prosperity for all”.
This includes transitioning to circular economy models that “reduce material footprints”, rapidly decarbonising the energy system, shifting towards sustainable diets, reducing waste and restoring degraded ecosystems.
