Uganda election: Chances for change?

Ahead of Uganda's presidential election on January 15, tensions are running high. Military vehicles and soldiers seem to be on every street corner of Kampala. Though around 21.6 million voters have registered for the 2026 election, many Ugandans doubt the election will proceed in an orderly manner.

Uganda has not experienced a peaceful transfer of power since independence in 1962. On the streets of Kampala, those willing to speak to DW expressed a desire to vote, but were under no illusions of what the election might bring.

"Historically, no election here has ever been completely fair," says Opolot Jerome, adding: "Machines can break down, the network can fail. Still, I hope many of those who didn't vote last time will cast their ballots this time."

Maria Taremwa looks to election day with concern: "People are being beaten in the streets, especially opposition supporters."

A government instruction to leave polling stations after voting also worries her: "Many want to protect their vote – that's understandable, but it could easily lead to chaos."

Taremwa speaks to another fear — possible internet blackouts: "Facebook has been restricted since the last election. And that limits our freedom of expression."

Meanwhile, another Kampalan, Jacob Nuwashumbusha  hopes political leaders will "urge their supporters to remain calm."

"Normally I wouldn't expect a violent outbreak, but we're sitting on a powder keg," he tells DW.

President Yoweri Museveni, 81, has ruled since 1986 and is seeking his seventh mandate.

This was made possible by constitutional amendments he initiated, which removed age and term limits.

Museveni presents himself as a guarantor of stability. In a New Year's address, he defended the tough actions of the security forces, describing the use of tear gas against the "criminal opposition" as "legal and non-lethal."

Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, known as Bobi Wine, is widely viewed as Museveni's biggest challenger. The 43-year-old musician-turned-politician is the leader of the National Unity Platform (NUP), and is popular among younger voters. In the 2021 general election, he won around 35% of the vote.

During the campaign, he declared this election was "not just another election, it is a revolution."

Museveni and Bobi Wine are among the eight approved candidates. Other well-known opposition figures, like Kizza Besigye, have been detained. Human rights lawyer and government critic Sarah Bireete was also arrested and will remain in detention until after the election. Doubts about the independence of institutions are widespread.

Political scientist Frederick Golooba-Mutebi told DW: "Almost every election in Uganda has been accompanied by accusations of manipulation against the government and the commission. This election will probably be the same."

Allegations of violence have overshadowed campaigning, with at least three Bobi Wine supporters already allegedly killed. Videos show Bobi Wine wearing protective gear, and recordings of attacks on journalists are also circulating.

Speaking to the Associated Press, Wine said that "the military has largely taken over the elections."

The government, meanwhile, has rejected those accusations.

Instead, President Museveni has touted his record of stability and economic development to Ugandans, and that continuity is vital for the nation to progress.

Museveni told supporters: "You have seen with your own eyes the fighting in the DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo). You cannot play with our peace and security by voting for someone else."

Golooba-Mutebi told DW that since President Museveni first ran in an election in 1995, campaigns in Uganda have repeatedly been "accompanied by violence."

"Any Ugandan who has followed the campaigns will acknowledge that these campaigns have been marked by violence," he said.

Amnesty International warned of a "brutal campaign of repression" and has documented the use of tear gas, arrests, and mistreatment of opposition members. There are also allegations of torture and arbitrary detention.

In the run-up to the vote, authorities have banned live broadcasts of unrest, though Nyombi Thembo from the Uganda Communications Commission told reporters: "There is currently no decision to shut down the internet."

Analyst Adolf Mbaine considers another victory for Museveni likely: "He controls the security forces, he appoints the electoral commission. He also runs a good campaign."

Under these conditions, a change of power is hardly conceivable, Mbaine says. For that to happen, the opposition would have needed to unite behind a single candidate.

Golooba-Mutebi is also skeptical about potential changes after the election: "Real change would require either a new government or a completely different composition of the current party – that is very unlikely."

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Frank Yiga in Uganda contributed to this article.