CAR: Touadera expected to win 'peaceful' election

As voters in the Central African Republic await results of the December 28 elections, attention is already turning to how the country can consolidate security gains and transition into economic recovery.

Incumbent President Faustin-Archange Touadera, 68, seeking a third term, is widely tipped for victory following constitutional changes in 2023 that removed term limits. The vote, which African Union observers described as "step forward towards democracy," took place against a backdrop of a fragile economy and a complex regional geopolitical landscape.

Beverly Ochieng, senior analyst at Control Risks in Senegal, told DW that President Touadera's dominance partly stems from his long tenure, and changing the constitution to consolidate his power.

She added Touadera does have a record over the last 10 years "of trying to push for peace across the country whether through peace agreements with various rebel groups or even paramilitaries."

In an exclusive interview with DW, President Touadera said his record speaks for itself.

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"Take a look at the situation in 2016 when I took office. There was no state authority throughout the country. You couldn't go out without an escort," he said, adding: "Our defense forces were completely non-existent. Today, we see a country that is gradually recovering, that is raising its head."

During the last election, in 2020, only 50% of sub-prefectures were able to host polling normally, and the election was disrupted an attempted coup by rebels from the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC).

Analysts agree that CAR is far more secure than it was a decade ago.

"Let us not forget in December 2020 there were rebels literally at the doors of Bangui, and the situation has changed," said Lewis Mudge, Central Africa Director at Human Rights Watch.

Mudge credits several factors: "The bilateral agreements he's made with Russia and Rwanda, the UN peacekeeping force, but probably most importantly are these peace deals that he's signed recently with three main rebel groups over the last few months."

Ochieng adds: "10 years ago at the point when Touadera and various other candidates were seeking election, state presence was very minimal outside of Bangui and there has been progress even, though there have been various setbacks."

Touadera himself emphasizes the role of international partners and bilateral allies.

"We have gone from 5,000 armed forces personnel to more than 23,000 on the ground today," he told DW, adding that Central African troops now operate alongside international partners, including the UN mission MINUSCA (Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic).

Still, insecurity persists in areas such as Haut-Mbomou, which is in the far east of the country, bordering on the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan. Touadera points to disarmament efforts as evidence of progress: "We had identified 14 armed groups. Today, 11 armed groups have declared their self-dissolution."

Despite these gains, critics warn that CAR's reliance on foreign support — particularly from Russia — could narrow political space.

"The fight for peace and security is not over," Touadera told thousands of supporters in Bangui during his campaign, pledging to strengthen the armed forces to preserve national unity.

CAR remains one of the poorest countries in the world, and pressure is mounting on the government to deliver economic reforms.

In fact, analyst Beverly Ochieng tells DW that despite consolidated security efforts, "without inclusion, it will be difficult for there to be much economic gain."

Touadera's main rival, Anicet-Georges Dologuele, who was defeated in 2016 and 2020, made the economy the centerpiece of his campaign.

"We no longer have an economy. What kind of country is this that produces nothing, that exports nothing?" Dologuele told DW.

He described the vote as: "A choice for national survival; a choice between resignation and hope."

Analysts agree that gaining security is fundamental for economic progress.

"You can't even have these conversations about the economy unless the country is secure," Mudge told DW.

In Bangui, young people expressed both frustration and cautious optimism.

Brunel, a trainee jewelry maker, said: "Our concern is first of all to have stability so the authorities can create favorable conditions for the sons and daughters of the country to work."

At the University of Bangui, student Leslie Monika called for education reform: "I would like the Ministry of Education to bring more rigor to fight corruption, and to truly value education."

For metalworker Icome Ikar, security and jobs go hand in hand: "If the country is secure, we will be able to work properly and feed our families."

Analyst Lewis Mudge acknowledges Touadera has attempted to bring prosperity to the CAR: "You do have a president who is trying everything he possibly can to try to generate some type of investment, some type of interest in growth in this country. But none of that is going to come without a meaningful sense of security."