Maduro's downfall deals China new cards in US rivalry

Hours after the US' controversial seizure of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro this weekend, China's Foreign Ministry stated Beijing was "deeply shocked" by the "blatant use of force against a sovereign state."

The Asian nation also appealed to Latin American and Caribbean countries, calling them "good friends and good partners" and assuring them Beijing was willing to work with them and "navigate the changing international landscape with solidarity and coordination."

While criticizing the United States for attacking Venezuela, Chinese diplomats have also sought to portray their own country as a responsible global power.

Those remarks are likely to resonate strongly across Latin America. With US President Donald Trump reviving the Monroe Doctrine — a foreign policy stance first articulated over 200 years ago about Washington's supremacy in the Western Hemisphere — the kidnapping of Maduro is seen as a grim warning and a demonstration of US power in the region.

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William Yang, a senior Northeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank, said Beijing is likely to tap into such concerns to challenge US international standing and to "further deepen its influence among countries across the Global South."

China will also "closely monitor how the US handles the situation in Venezuela in the coming weeks and months," Yang added.

Trump's swift seizure of Maduro, the leader of a key Chinese ally in Latin America, could significantly impact the world's second-largest economy.

Under Maduro, China formed an "all‑weather strategic partnership" with Venezuela and became the country's largest oil buyer after the US sanctions escalated in 2019.

China has also sold weapons to Venezuela — with deliveries worth $615 million (€526 million) just between 2009 and 2019, according to a US estimate. Perhaps most significantly for China, its officials have provided billions in credit to Venezuela, and Caracas is nowhere near paying off its debt.

US-based think tank AidData puts the total Chinese lending to Venezuela at $105.5 billion, which includes $17-19 billion in outstanding principal from China Development Bank's oil-for-loans program.

Hours before his capture on Saturday, Maduro welcomed a Chinese delegation in what he described as a "pleasant meeting" to reaffirm their political and economic partnership.

But US media has since reported that the Trump administration is insisting that the interim government in Venezuela must sever economic ties with China, Russia, Iran and Cuba. On social media, Trump has stated that Venezuela would deliver between 30 million and 50 million barrels of its oil to the US.

"The United States' brazen use of force against Venezuela and its demand for 'America First' when Venezuela disposes of its own oil resources are typical acts of bullying," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a press conference.

However, analysts caution that China's rhetoric should be taken with a grain of salt.

"China didn't give a hoot about international law," said Elizabeth Freund Larus, adjunct senior fellow at the Pacific Forum, pointing to China's military assertiveness in the South China Sea and its reluctance to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"We can translate China's warning to Washington… as 'Beijing needs its money back!' and 'We demand that the US continue Venezuelan oil flows to China!'" Larus added.

Also, despite Beijing's strong language, China has yet to take any action in retaliation to the US attack on Venezuela.

"Beijing is unlikely to go beyond symbolic expressions of disapproval," said Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution.

Hass also said he did not expect the incident would significantly alter the trajectory of US-China relations.

"America's actions in Venezuela will only play into the US-China relationship if they cause the United States to get distracted and bogged down in a quagmire in Venezuela," he said.

Over the weekend, Chinese social media closely followed Trump's capture of the Venezuelan leader, with nationalist users saying the operation offered a way for China to handle tensions with Taipei.

Beijing claims Taiwan, a self-governing democracy, as its own territory and has vowed to take over the island by force if necessary.

When asked to comment on the speculation regarding Taiwan on Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian reiterated Beijing's standard line that the Taiwan controversy was "an internal affair" and "no external forces are in the position of making any interference."

But analysts say that the situations in Venezuela and Taiwan are hardly comparable and that Beijing's calculus is unlikely to change due to the US seizing Maduro.

"Venezuela is a shattered state that was run by a strongman ruler. Taiwan is a vibrant democracy," Hass said. "China could not achieve its aims on Taiwan simply by capturing Taiwan's elected leader."

Beijing "has intended to grab Taiwan long before this and will long after," he told DW. "China hasn't done it yet because China isn't guaranteed success yet. That day is getting closer, regardless of Trump."