The UK pushed hard to secure the release of Jimmy Lai, the newspaper publisher and British citizen who was a leading light in Hong Kong’s brutally suppressed pro-democracy movement. So, too, did press freedom and human rights campaigners. But the Beijing-appointed high court judges in the former colony convicted him anyway, finding Lai guilty last week on fake charges of trying to “destabilise” the Chinese Communist party (CCP). For Xi Jinping, China’s dictator-emperor, there is no greater crime.
Protesting to China’s ambassador, the UK’s foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, condemned the trial as “politically motivated”. She’s right, of course – but her angry words will make no difference. Beijing’s contempt for Britain’s views is as painfully obvious as the UK’s weakness and indecision in the face of Chinese hubris. The breaking of its solemn promise to respect Hong Kong’s freedoms after the 1997 handover typifies the arrogance and untrustworthiness of Xi’s CCP.
The Lai travesty forms a sombre, unpropitious backdrop to Keir Starmer’s planned trade and business-focused visit to Beijing and Shanghai in January. Any half-decent Chinese fortune-teller would deem it ill-starred and suggest he stay home. Yet speaking at a City banquet this month, Starmer said it was his “duty” to go, to improve relations with a country he called “a defining force in technology, trade and global governance”. While admitting China posed “national security threats”, he downplayed them.
This was typical Starmer, pursuing a balancing act amid overwhelming imbalances, seeking firm middle ground in a plashy bog. It’s true Britain’s stagnant economy badly needs foreign investment. It’s true China is a major export market. The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, visiting China in January, spoke of a £1bn opportunity for jobs and growth.
Yet in terms of Britain’s security and democracy, the global order and national self-respect, the price of doing business with this predatory authoritarian regime, in uncertain hope of future, dependency-creating economic, financial and tech benefits, is too high – and potentially undermines UK sovereignty. Starmer risks walking into a bear trap in Beijing like the one he blundered into this year in Washington set by Donald Trump, another powerful authoritarian bully.
China’s hostile regime is Britain’s undeclared enemy. The threat it poses takes many forms. Warnings about espionage, cyber-attacks and intimidation of exiled dissidents are heard almost daily. Yet another hack was revealed on Friday, this time at the Foreign Office, reportedly by China. MI5 says businesses, parliament and MPs are routinely targeted by Chinese intelligence agents. Yet a strange reluctance to act is discernible in Whitehall.
It’s still unclear, for example, why the prosecution of two Britons accused of spying for China collapsed this autumn. The Commons intelligence and security committee complained last week the government was “dragging its heels” over designating China a major threat to national security. And in a very political public debut, MI6’s new chief, Blaise Metreweli, deftly skirted the China question.
Here’s what Metreweli didn’t say. China’s CCP leadership fundamentally challenges Britain’s values and interests around the world through its gross human rights abuses in Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet; persecution of its Christian minority; aggressive trade polices (such as curbs on rare earth mineral exports and the “dumping” of subsidised steel); military threats to Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines; partnerships with Russia, North Korea and Iran; and through its support for Moscow’s illegal war in Ukraine.
China’s record-level global export income and rapid nuclear and conventional weapons buildups underpin its ambition to replace the collaborative international rules-based order with a “great power” system it seeks to dominate. A world remade in the CCP’s totalitarian image would be the antithesis of the liberal, lawful democratic model ostensibly championed by Britain.
Starmer surely knows all this, yet tries to have it both ways – by separating politics and security from business and trade in much the same futile way people try to separate politics from sport. “Protecting our security is non-negotiable – our first duty. But by taking tough steps to keep us secure, we enable ourselves to cooperate in other areas,” Starmer argued. That’s why officials disingenuously downplay the threat. They worry untimely criticism could spoil his pitch.
It’s a naive approach. The CCP has a hand in everything Beijing does. China’s security state, economy and commerce are intimately intertwined and ultimately inseparable, as a previous UK government recognised when banning Huawei from Britain’s 5G telecoms network. That’s how authoritarian regimes work. And centralised party control has tangibly increased under Xi. Any deals Starmer makes will inevitably have national security implications.
Beijing is already demanding a down payment. It wants to build a big fortress-embassy near Tower Bridge. If permission is not granted by mid-January, Starmer’s as yet unconfirmed trip may be canned. How crushing a snub that would be. And revealing of how, in China, politics and security intersect.
Starmer should have learned his lesson by now. His urgent need for favourable post-Brexit trade deals with another predatory regime – the Trump administration – has become inextricably mixed up with the repulsive politics of Israel-Gaza and UK defence policy – for example, its recent decision to buy US combat jets. And like Xi, Trump cannot be trusted: see how he just reneged on Starmer’s much-trumpeted £31bn US-UK “tech prosperity deal”.
All is not lost. A commonsense geopolitical alternative is available. Instead of kowtowing to hostile Xi and treacherous Trump, Labour could and should be more energetic and braver in rebuilding ties with Europe. In facing shared security threats, tackling economic challenges and upholding democratic values, Europe is Britain’s natural home.
In navigating the world, Starmer should follow a simple rule: hug friends close – and know your enemy. In this spirit, he should make his China visit contingent on the prior release of Lai.