As Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray formalised an alliance ahead of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, past results underline why alliances have long been central to winning Mumbai’s civic body.
Unlike Assembly or Lok Sabha polls, BMC elections are fought ward by ward in a city where voters rarely rally behind a single party. Over the past two decades, Mumbai has consistently delivered split verdicts, forcing parties to rely on alliances, seat sharing, and tactical coordination rather than outright popular support.
Data from the last four BMC elections shows that no party has crossed the 30 per cent vote share mark since 2002. Control of India’s richest municipal corporation has therefore depended less on sweeping mandates and more on who can prevent vote division and convert narrow leads into seats.
It is this arithmetic of fragmented votes that explains the renewed push for alliances.
Mumbai voters have consistently spread their support across parties. In 2002, the Shiv Sena emerged as the largest party with 28.10 per cent of the vote, only slightly ahead of the Congress, which secured 26.48 per cent. Fifteen years later, in 2017, the situation was similar. Despite major political changes, no party crossed the 30 per cent mark.
This is largely because Mumbai does not vote the same way everywhere. Different parts of the city respond to different issues. Language, income levels, religion, and occupation all influence voting choices. Suburban middle-class areas often vote differently from older localities or industrial neighbourhoods.
Because of this, alliances have usually played a key role in BMC elections. Even small shifts in the combined vote share can change the results in many wards.
For many years, the Shiv Sena was the dominant force in the BMC. But its vote share shows that its support base did not expand significantly. In 2002, the party polled 28.10 per cent of the vote. In 2017, it was almost unchanged at 28.29 per cent. In the 2007 and 2012 elections, its share fell to around 22 per cent.
Even so, the Sena won a large number of seats, 97 in 2002 and 84 in both 2007 and 2017. This was possible because votes against it were divided among several parties, and for long periods it had an understanding with the BJP.
However, the two parties decided to call off their alliance for the BMC elections in 2017, and despite contesting almost the entire city independently, both failed to cross the 30 per cent vote share mark.
That situation has changed in the current political context. With the Eknath Shinde-led Sena split and traditional Marathi voters no longer united, Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena needs new alliances to remain competitive. This is why a tie-up with Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) has gained importance, not because it guarantees victory, but because it could prevent further loss of votes.
The rise of the MNS in 2012 is often cited as a turning point. That year, the party secured 20.67 per cent of the vote but won only 28 seats.
While it did not come to power, it altered outcomes across many wards by cutting into the Sena’s support base. By 2017, however, the MNS vote share dropped sharply to 7.73 per cent, and its seat tally fell to seven.
The main beneficiary of this decline was not the Shiv Sena, but the BJP.
For nearly 15 years, the BJP was a minor player in Mumbai’s civic elections. Between 2002 and 2012, its vote share remained below nine per cent, and its seat tally ranged from 28 to 35. In Mumbai, it remained overshadowed by the Shiv Sena.
That changed in 2017, when the BJP decided to step out of the Sena’s shadow and contest independently.
Its vote share jumped to 27.32 per cent in a single election, and its seat count rose to 82, just two fewer than the Sena. This marked the biggest shift seen in any BMC election.
What stood out was that the BJP achieved this without a formal alliance. It benefited from the steady decline of the Congress and the NCP, the sharp fall in the MNS vote, and the fact that votes were split among several parties in many wards.
However, the breakaway did not fully deliver the desired outcome. Despite being in power at both the Centre and the state, the BJP was unable to dislodge the Shiv Sena as the single-largest party or breach the 30 per cent vote share barrier.
It is for this reason that, despite its position of strength, the BJP continues to see the need for an alliance with the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena to gain control of Mumbai.
Two decades of BMC elections show that Mumbai rarely gives any party a clear majority. No party has crossed the halfway mark required to govern the 227-member municipal corporation on its own.
Elections are usually decided by how well parties manage divided votes rather than by who is most popular overall.
For the Thackeray brothers, coming together could help reduce vote division and improve their chances in closely fought wards. But the 30 per cent ceiling still applies to all parties.
As the next BMC election approaches, the lesson from past results is clear. In Mumbai’s civic politics, alliances remain the most reliable route to power.