Maduro's capture in Venezuela sends warning signal to Iran

The unprecedented US military attack in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolas Maduro and his wife set alarm bells ringing for Iran's leadership.

Tehran is one of the closest allies of Maduro, who remained in power in 2024 after massive election rigging and is not recognized by Germany or the European Union as the legitimate president of Venezuela. After his dramatic capture on Saturday, Maduro appeared in a New York courtroom on Monday on narco-terrorism charges.

With this surprising intervention, US President Donald Trump has demonstrated that his government is willing to use military measures to overthrow an enemy regime, in violation of the UN Charter and international law, sending a clear warning signal to other authoritarian countries.

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Iran has demanded Maduro's immediate release following his arrest by US military. "The president of a country and his wife have been kidnapped," said a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry on Monday. "There is no reason to be proud. This is an illegal act."

Relations between Iran and Venezuela can hardly be explained by traditional foreign policy standards. Venezuela is located in the Caribbean and has a predominantly Catholic population, while Iran is on the Persian Gulf and is largely Muslim. Bilateral trade remains modest, and there are no direct flights between the two capitals.

Instead, they have a common enemy: the United States. They are also united by their approach to international sanctions and their ability to survive in a US-dominated world order. Over the past three decades, this combination of political sympathy and anti-American rhetoric has developed into a complex web of cooperation involving oil, finance, industry and security.

These ties remain unchanged, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said. "Our relations with all countries, including Venezuela, are based on mutual respect. And that is how it will remain." The government in Tehran is in contact with the Venezuelan authorities, the spokesperson added.

The political developments in Venezuela come at a sensitive time for Iran. Nationwide protests have been ongoing for more than a week, sparked by skyrocketing prices and an ailing economy. Demonstrators are demanding social, economic and political change, piling the pressure onto the leadership in Tehran.

Trump has not been shy about issuing warnings to Iran, this week making a fresh threat about an attack should protesters in Iran be killed.

While traveling on Air Force One back to Washington on Sunday, Trump said the US is keeping a close eye on the protests. "If they [the Iranian government] start killing people like they have in the past, I think they will be hit very hard by the United States."

There was no detail available on which steps the US might be considering. Back in June, the US Air Force attacked Iranian nuclear facilities as part of the Israeli-Iranian war to destroy the country's nuclear capabilities.

"The reactions I am now receiving from Iran are ambivalent," said Bundestag Vice President Omid Nouripour, who was born in Tehran and emigrated to Germany with his family at the age of 12. "Many people there want regime change. But the interventions of recent years, and now also in Venezuela, show that Trump has no plan for the day after. That's why I'm very cautious."

But the message to Iran is getting through, according to Damon Golriz, an analyst for international politics and researcher at the Institute for Geopolitics in The Hague, Netherlands. Tehran knows that its political leadership could become a US military target.

Golriz sees Maduro's arrest as part of Trump's course change. Last summer, the US president had been reluctant to support Israeli plans to target Supreme Leader Ayatollah  Ali Khamenei and Iran's other military leaders.

But Tehran's rhetoric has also been also strident. "The US should take care of its soldiers," warned Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, on X this week. The US has up to 45,000 US soldiers stationed in various countries in the Middle East, including Iraq, Syria and Qatar.

In June, Iran attacked the largest US military base in the Middle East in Qatar in retaliation for the bombing of its nuclear facilities. No one was injured. According to Trump, the US had been given prior warning by Iran.

Maduro's ouster also has implications for Iran's security and military apparatus, said Golriz. There, the search for a successor to Khamenei is already underway. Unlike Venezuela, Iran has no significant opposition within its highly personalized power structure.

The US attack on Venezuela has also had a psychological impact on Iran, said Reza Talebi, an Iranian journalist living in exile in Turkey. Decision-makers in Tehran face a key question: "If the US has successfully carried out such a coup in the Western Hemisphere, why wouldn't it do the same elsewhere?"

This could alter Iran's strategic calculations in its dealings with the US and Israel, he said. Over the weekend, Israel issued a strong warning to Iran, with former Israeli prime minister and current opposition leader in the Knesset, Yair Lapid, reminding Tehran to keep a close eye on developments in Caracas.

However, the intensification of external threats could also provide the Iranian government with an excuse to crack down even harder on the ongoing protests.

Talebi said that hopes for military intervention by the US or "an external savior" could weaken the Iranian civil society's will to protest, but added: "The assumption that the Trump administration's pressure is primarily intended to support the Iranian people is naive and superficial."

This article was originally written in German.