Yemen's Houthis would benefit if fighting begins again

On Friday, Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes on a military camp held by the United Arab Emirates-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) in eastern Yemen's Hadramout province.

According to a report by the news agency AFP, the at least seven strikes killed seven people and injured dozens.

Mohammed Abdulmalik, who heads the Southern Transitional Council in Wadi Hadramout and Hadramout Desert, said a ground attack was repelled.

These strikes mark the latest escalation between the STC and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, which is represented by the Presidential Leadership Council, or PLC, under Rashad al-Alimi.

They also contrast an earlier statement on Friday by the region's newly appointed governor, ⁠Salem al-Khanbashi, who had promised that "this operation is not a declaration of war, nor an attempt to escalate tensions."

Al-Khanbashi was not only appointed governor with full military, security and administrative authority but also tasked with the operation "Takeover of Camps" as commander of the Saudi-backed Homeland Shield Forces. On Tuesday, the STC had agreed to allow the troops back in the area.

The Saudi-aligned forces argued that the strikes followed the STC's refusal to withdraw from military positions.

In December, the STC gained control over swathes of government-controlled territory in the provinces Hadramout and Mahra, as well as Aden. In response to the advance, Yemen's government officially asked Saudi Arabia for support against the STC and in its efforts to take back lost military positions.

On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia targeted a shipment of weapons allegedly sent by the United Arab Emirates in the port of Mukalla, the capital of Hadramout. The Saudi government claimed that it was destined for the STC. However, Abu Dhabi has denied sending weapons.

"The Ministry confirms that the shipment concerned did not include any weapons, and that the vehicles unloaded were not intended for any Yemeni party, but were shipped for use by UAE forces operating in Yemen," the UAE news agency WAM reported.

Following those strikes, Yemen's government canceled its defense pact with the United Arab Emirates, the key regional backer of the STC, declared a 90-day state of emergency, and ordered all UAE forces to leave Yemen within 24 hours.

Farea al-Muslimi, a Yemen researcher at the London-based think tank Chatham House, wrote on X that this was a "face-saving measure" to deescalate.

The province of Hadramout is considered a key element of the Yemeni economy because of its oil and gas reserves. It is also home to one of the major border crossings into Saudi Arabia. This gives the province a crucial role in both border security and trade.

The province of Mahra, with its ports and well-developed transport routes, is seen as Yemen's economic powerhouse.

Both sides continue to trade blame over air traffic restrictions. On Friday, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Yemen blamed the STC for refusing landing permissions for a Saudi plane while Saudi Arabia reportedly demands that airplanes leave from Aden's international airport to stop in Saudi Arabia's Jeddah for security checks.

Analysts say the current escalation between the Gulf countries marks the most significant rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE in decades.

The STC is backed by the UAE, who are aligned with Saudi Arabia in their war against the Iran-backed Houthis, which ousted the Yemeni government from the capital, Sanaa in 2014. Saudi Arabia and the UAE fought side by side from 2015 until a 2022 ceasefire largely ended the war, with the Houthis controlling the north, and the Presidential Council and the STC controlling the south.

Despite their joint fight against the Houthis, the UAE differs from Saudi Arabia on keeping Yemen unified: The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council wants Yemen's south to secede.

The Houthis — who were redesignated as terror organization by the United States in 2024 — are likely to benefit most from the crisis in the south, which pits the Gulf countries against each other. According to several media reports, the group commented on the conflict as " a crisis between two occupiers"

On Friday, the European Union called for deescalation.

The Arab Parliament, the legislative body of the Arab League, highlighted the importance of making every effort to deescalate the situation. "Prioritizing dialogue, understanding and wisdom is essential to serve the best interests of the Yemeni people," the group of 22 Arab states said on Friday.

This would be in the interest of Yemen's population, who still suffer from one of the world's worst humanitarian crises after years of war. According to UN estimates, about 60% of the estimated 377,000 deaths in Yemen from 2015 through early 2022 were the result of causes such as food insecurity and lack of access to health services. As of 2025, 5 million people remain at risk of famine.

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