A victory for Joy would represent a major demographic breakthrough in Malappuram, a district traditionally characterized by Muslim-majority electoral patterns.
Congress candidate V S Joy is poised to create history in Malappuram district, as he leads in Thavanur seat against sitting legislator and former minister K T Jaleel, contesting as an Independent. If Joy wins, it would be the first time a Christain candidate has won from Muslim-dominated Malappuram.
In 1995, the Congress’s A K Antony had won from Tirurangadi seat in Malappuram in a by-election, but the party’s pre-eminent Christian face was at the time the sitting chief minister.
Given Kerala’s highly diverse and polarised social composition, the dominating community in a constituency is a big factor in who wins. Joy, the Malappuram district president of the Congress, does not have any community vote base in Thavanur where Christian population is only around 1.4%. Muslim population comprises more than half, at 54%, with the rest Hindus.
But Joy’s victory is also to a large part due to the efforts of its ally IUML (Indian Union Muslim League), which put its weight behind the Christian leader.
While Joy’s good rapport with the IUML in Malappuram made him acceptable to the party, the party that has a solid base among Muslims in the state wanted to defeat Jaleel, who has been a big critic of the IUML and its leadership.
In 2006, Jaleel had defeated IUML strongman P K Kunhalikutty from the now-defunct Kuttipuram seat – making the Thavanur fight a matter of prestige as well for the party.
Joy, incidentally, had been passed over by the Congress after his name figured for the by-election last year from the Nilambur Assembly seat. However, he had gone on to work whole-heartedly for the party’s chosen nominee, Aryadan Shoukkath, and helped ensure his win.
With the counting still on, Jaleel admitted his defeat, posting on Facebook: “I accept the people’s mandate. My congratulations to V S Joy. I have only love towards the people of Thavanur.”
Curated by Aisha Patel
