Why Iran's communication blackout could become permanent

As the world watches Iran, those inside the country are dealing with a communications shutdown that makes it nearly impossible to get any message out. For many Iranians, both home and abroad, isolation and chaos have been piled on top of more existential concerns over the future of their country.

Precise information is difficult to come by, but estimates suggest between 95 and 99% of the country's communication network — from mobile phone and internet signals to landline telephones — has been blocked since Friday.

The ability to call out to international numbers was partially restored for some on Tuesday morning but incoming international calls are still barred and the internet is still unavailable to the general public, causing ripples well beyond person-to-person communication.

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"It's affected so much. Cheques can't be cashed, the money flow is disrupted, business is disrupted, truck drivers are not working as usual so goods are not getting from factory to the consumer — it's all of everyday life," Iranian digital rights expert, Amir Rashidi, told DW, adding that a consistent picture was hard to establish, given huge differences between areas of the country.

Generally speaking, Rashidi said, communications stop entirely in the early evening, while basic everyday functions such as card machines and ATMs are not functioning, making life very difficult.

The blackout was imposed by Iranian authorities as part of a wider violent crackdown to quell the uprising sweeping the nation and stop protestors from organizing as effectively.

Some videos of clashes have emerged from the country in recent days, with some Iranians using a host of online tools designed to bypass censorship, including Telegram proxies, browsers and a secure messaging service called Delta Chat at significant risk, given the position of the authorities.

Iranian student, N, 28 now living in Cologne, told DW she finally reached her brother in Iran, who had wanted to join the protests, after trying for several days. N's real name, and those of other Iranians DW spoke to, have been anonymized for safety reasons.

"A friend told me that a friend of his knew someone who could somehow get connected. I don't really know how. I gave them my brother’s number, and eventually they sent me back a voice message from him. I was in tears. He said they were all fine and that he wasn't going out anymore, especially at night. He said my family wanted me to stop worrying and focus on my exams. I have no idea how many people that message passed through before it reached me, but I didn't care."

"I know this kind of communication isn't safe, but at that point I didn't care anymore. I tried to be as indirect as possible and avoided mentioning that my brother had wanted to join the protests," she added.

Elon Musk's Starlink service is also reportedly still working at a lower capacity in the country despite a ban that existed before the latest protests, which have seen over 640 deaths and over 10,700 detentions, according to human rights organizations. Starlink has been used often in such blackouts, including in Ukraine, Sudan and previous uprisings in Iran. US President Donald Trump has said he would talk to Musk about restoring internet in Iran without mentioning Starlink specifically.

Rashidi said that the Iranian government has engaged in "whitelisting," granting access to pre-approved sites, usually those owned or approved by the clerical authorities that run the country.

Even before the latest crackdown, Iran had strict internet controls on social media sites and VPNs (virtual private networks), with the country's Supreme Council of Cyberspace (SCC) trying to direct Iranian traffic onto its National Information Network (NIN), essentially a state intranet.

He added that authorities can also allow access to certain demographic groups through the whitelisting process. This means one website may be available to men but not women, to government workers but not business owners or old people but not young people.

Iranians living outside their homeland are distressed and worried for those cut off. Lily A, a 31-year-old Iranian now living in Berlin, told DW she has not been able to reach her family since the blackout began.

"Only one friend from a small city has managed to reach out, but my friend also has difficulty calling others inside the country, so I have not been able to indirectly contact my family either," she said, adding that her friend's job in an office that requires internet access is on "indefinite pause" given the blackout.

"It's quite unusual for me to be cut off from my family for such a long time, as they are old and we are used to talking almost daily, even if just in the form of a short call. I am afraid that the news of the unrest might be stressing them out and causing adverse health outcomes and it has been difficult to focus on my daily life because of this."

Lily added that she hopes a de-escalation in tension might see communications return but considers that "the absence of safety and stability for the people inside is the real source of fear for me, whether the internet connection comes back or not."

Rashidi said the authorities believe the current protests, driven by a wide range of economic, geopolitical and cultural flashpoints, require a stronger shutdown than ever before.

"Things are more serious. That's why I'm saying we should expect a minimum of 10 days [shutdown] if not more. I wouldn't be surprised if the internet is shut down for longer," he said, before adding that even a resumption of any service would likely see restrictions remain.

"Whenever they shut down the internet, usually we don't go back to how it was in normal times. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the damage is there forever," he said. "In the scenario that the rights protests are suppressed, people go back off the streets and we go back to the normal Islamic Republic, the internet would not be the same."

Additional reporting by Monir Ghaedi.