Russian energy: Taiwan's weak link in China conflict?

Trade data suggests that levels of Russian naphtha, a refined crude oil product, flowing into Taiwan remain steady despite Taipei saying it would reduce volumes.

A report published in October by the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) revealed the Asian country had become the world's biggest importer of the fossil-fuel derivative from Russia.

Ciaran Tyler, lead naphtha research analyst at Brussels, Belgium-based commodity data analytics firm Kpler, says Taiwan's imports of Russian-origin naphtha have not slowed significantly, even though they have said they would not renew contracts to buy the product.

Kpler data shows that naphtha volumes from Russia imported by Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC) — the Taiwanese company almost entirely responsible for the surge in naphtha imports — remained steady in November and December.

"Formosa won't renew buying for new term contracts next year, but fulfilling contracts already set up is something they have not backed away from, seemingly," he told DW.

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Tyler expects import volumes to decline rapidly early in 2026, as annual and quarterly contracts expire.

Luke Wickenden, one of the co-authors of the CREA report, told DW that he believes Formosa is sincere in its commitment to pull back.

The CREA report, written in conjunction with Taiwan's Environmental Rights Foundation and the exiled Russian environmental group Ecodefense, had revealed that in the first six months of 2025, Taiwanese imports of Russian naphtha had surged six times what they were in 2022.

Naphtha is needed to make chemicals required for high-tech manufacturing, including semiconductor manufacturing.

"It's essentially a base feedstock for producing all sorts of chemicals that fund its semiconductor industry," said Wickenden. "It's an incredibly important chemical."

The report prompted debate in Taiwan over possible dependence on Russia, with lawmakers arguing that China could leverage the dependence against Taiwan in the future, given the increasingly close ties between Beijing and Moscow.

After the report was published, Formosa issued a statement saying that as a private company, it was not restricted from buying Russian naphtha, but that it requires traders and suppliers to "comply with international sanctions."

It claimed that due to "global market conditions," it had been buying higher shares of Russian naphtha. "This is purely the result of market circumstances, not a deliberate shift in procurement strategy," the company added.

Jheng Rui-he, a senior analyst at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, a government think tank based in Taipei, says it's important to see Formosa's purchases of Russian naphtha in that context.

"Based on the spirit of free trade, governments can't interrupt the commercial behavior of private companies," he told DW.

Taiwan's minister of economic affairs Kung Ming-hsin, subsequently, told Taiwanese media that Formosa's contracts for Russian naphtha were soon due to expire and that the company had "agreed not to purchase Russian naphtha in the future."

For CREA's Wickenden, the case shows how it was possible to put pressure on companies that continue to buy Russian hydrocarbons. "It clearly shows that with coordinated pressure from NGOs and other think tanks, there is an opportunity to make real changes," he said.

Although Taiwan has taken swift action to cut Russian imports and reduce the risk of dependence, it has shone a light on the island's energy mix.

More than 80% of Taiwan's energy is currently powered by imported coal and LNG, although the share of coal is gradually falling, with renewable energy taking some of the share. Around 97% of Taiwan's energy is imported.

Jheng Rui-he says Taiwan's dependence on imports for its fuel means it faces "significant geopolitical risks."

Coal was also a focus of the CREA report. It pointed out that Taiwan had largely succeeded in reducing Russian coal dependence, with imports of the fossil fuel from Russia falling by 67% in the first six months of 2025, compared with the same period in 2024.

In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Taiwanese imports of Russian coal had climbed steadily, partly because it became affordable. "It's pretty natural that Taiwan essentially just started to try and make as much profit from importing cheaper Russian coal as they could," said Wickenden.

Taiwan actually became the fifth-largest buyer of Russian coal during the war. The fall in coal imports in 2025 has been largely driven by the Taiwanese government, with state-owned companies such as Taipower and the Taiwan Cement Corporation slashing coal purchases from Russia.

Wickenden says he is still concerned about private companies buying coal from Russia, even if it is currently in relatively small quantities. However, he notes that the "risk isn't huge anymore."

Beyond coal, Taiwan still imports small volumes of LNG from Russia but overall, it does not currently look vulnerable to coercion from Moscow or Beijing.

Jheng Rui-he noted that energy diversity is a core principle for the government but added it is important to remember that costs will always mean there is a chance of Russia being in Taiwan's energy mix in some form.

"Although countries' imports from Russia would be criticized, in reality, factors such as inflation, the burden on consumers, and industrial competitiveness also need to be considered," he said. "I think it's very hard for politicians to achieve balance."

Luke Wickenden believes that while Taiwan is a positive example of how energy flows from Russia can be cut, the European Union must maintain and step up pressure on refined Russian oil products in particular.

The EU has recently stepped up sanctions on refined exports from Russia. It has called on traders and operators to have due-diligence procedures in place to limit the risks of products made with Russian crude oil coming into the EU. The bloc has laid a specific focus on goods coming from Turkey, China and India, due to those countries' high recent purchases of Russian crude.

However, the EU itself has pointed to the fact that oil cannot be physically segregated once mixed, "it is impossible to certify the origin of all crude molecules imported into the EU."

Wickenden believes the language and legislation is still not strong enough regarding direct imports of refined products, of the kind that Taiwan found itself the focus of.

"At the moment it's only importers of crude and then exporters of refined products to say, EU countries, that are being scrutinized," he said.