Endless rains to El Nino: How climate has stopped being seasonal

NEW DELHI: It is beginning to look a lot like Christmas.... It did not, actually. Christmas recorded a 14° average temperature in Delhi. And then suddenly, a cold wave slapped us in our faces with the coldest New Years Eve in five years.

2026 began with cold and toxic conditions with dense fog in Delhi and large parts of north India.For centuries, human life has been framed by the rhythm of the seasons — the cool promise of winter, the renewal of spring, the blazing certainty of summer, the quiet retreat of autumn. For farmers, festival-goers, students, and ritual-makers, these transitions were so ingrained as to be almost unquestionable. But in recent years, that rhythm has begun to falter.

What was once predictable now feels uncertain. “February feels like April,” many meteorologists say, and the seasons we grew up with are slowly — and alarmingly — fading.Also read: Experts warn of disappearing seasons amid climate shifts

Seasonality refers to the regular and repeating changes in weather and environmental conditions that occur every year, such as summer heat, winter cold, monsoon rains, or dry seasons, and it is defined by how strong these changes are and how reliably they repeat over time.

Explaining the importance of seasons, Geography professor from Jawaharlal University (JNU) Dr Milap Punia referred to it as nature's timetable, helping ecosystems and human societies plan and function smoothly. "In the natural world, plants and animals depend on seasonal cues to decide when to flower, migrate, reproduce, or rest, so their life cycles match the availability of food and resources. Many species survive because their timing fits seasonal peaks, such as birds raising chicks when insects are plentiful, while seasonal variation also allows different species to thrive at different times.

Seasonal patterns influence disease spread by affecting human behavior, immunity, and insect populations," he said. For humans, seasons provide predictability, especially in agriculture, where farmers rely on timely rains and temperatures to sow and harvest crops. Dr Punia explained, "When seasons shift or become erratic, food security, health, and livelihoods are put at risk. Seasonal rhythms also shape human biology, energy demand, economic stability, and cultural traditions tied to rainfall or temperature cycles.

In simple terms, seasonality works like a traffic signal system when it functions properly, everything moves in order, but when the signals fail or change unexpectedly, confusion and disruption spread across both nature and society.

The familiar four-part cadence of the year is dissolving. Winters are becoming milder, summers arrive early and in unpredictable bursts, rainfall patterns have grown erratic, and events once seen as rare — like earthquakes and landslides — are increasingly talked about in the same breath as climate transformation.

This is not fiction or poetic exaggeration; it is the lived reality in many parts of the world. The Earth’s thermostat has been reset, and humanity is struggling to adjust.

Traditional seasons are no longer behaving as they once did, with some shrinking, shifting or disappearing altogether. In many parts of the country, the long-standing “seasonal clock” that people relied on for generations is breaking down. Giving example of Kashmir, Dr Punia explained that the springtime rainy season known as sonth, which once acted as a bridge between winter and spring, has largely vanished, replaced by prolonged dry spells following earlier-than-usual snowmelt.

Indian summer monsoon rainfall has shifted westward, with western India seeing stronger rainfall intensity, while the Indo-Gangetic Plain and northeast India historically reliable agricultural regions are experiencing increasing dryness. This reorganisation is linked to warming of the Indian Ocean, which diverts moisture-laden winds toward the Arabian Sea and away from traditional farming belts. "Biological signals further reveal this seasonal confusion, as farmers report that natural indicators such as insect emergence no longer align with planting or harvesting times, and in Himalayan regions fruits like raspberries are ripening up to two months earlier than in the past.

These changes mirror global scientific projections suggesting that by the end of the century, summers could stretch close to six months while winters shrink dramatically," said Dr Punia.

"For a country like India, where culture, food security, and livelihoods are deeply tied to predictable seasonal rhythms, the gradual fading of traditional seasons represents not just a climatic shift, but a serious social and ecological challenge."

Climate change is not merely about warmer weather — it amplifies the extremes, making weather less predictable in ways that ripple across human and ecological systems.Delhi University's Kirori Mal College (KMC) Geography professor Dr Seema Mehra Parihar believes that both the timing and intensity of seasons have changed across most regions due to the climate crisis, with signs of wetter seasons and longer dry seasons, or earlier springs and shorter winters. "Data from IMD-driven weather models, satellite images, ecological records, and human reports all show that seasons are becoming less predictable, shifting, losing distinctness or weakening suddenly, leaving little time for adjustment. In India, 99% of days from January to September 2025 experienced extreme weather. About 60% of districts, covering 76% of the population, face high-to-very-high heatwave risk.

Sea levels are rising along the Indian coast. By 2040, models project significant land submergence in Mumbai, Panaji, Chennai, and other coastal cities without primary mitigation. Urban heat islands are common. Examples and case studies from the Himalayas and coastal regions could go on indefinitely," said Dr Parihar.Unpredictable rainfallRegions that depended on seasonal rains are now seeing patterns that don’t match the old calendar.

Monsoons stall or surge, dry seasons last longer, and storms strike unexpectedly — a dangerous combination for farmers, water managers, and disaster planners.Heatwaves on the riseIn 2025, the Indian subcontinent experienced a severe heat wave that began unusually early — by April — and delivered extreme temperatures far above normal seasonal averages. Scientists attributed this to broader shifts in climate norms rather than isolated weather variability.Linked hazards: Earthquakes, landslides, volcanoesWhile climate change does not directly cause earthquakes or volcanic eruptions, its indirect effects can influence geological hazards. For example, rapid melting of glaciers and ice sheets alters stress on Earth’s crust; increased rainfall and rapid snowmelt saturate slopes, elevating landslide risk; changes in water levels can destabilize faults. Scientists continue to investigate these complex connections, but local communities already feel them as part of a broader pattern of environmental uncertainty.In effect, the neat calendar boxes of winter, spring, summer and autumn no longer match the climate reality on the ground.

At the heart of these seasonal disruptions is global warming — the long-term increase in Earth’s average surface temperature due largely to the burning of fossil fuels and rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Over decades, data shows that overall temperatures have risen significantly beyond pre-industrial baselines, reshaping atmospheric, oceanic, and ecological systems.Global warming is altering both the timing and intensity of seasons by disturbing the Earth’s natural heat balance. As greenhouse gases trap increasing amounts of heat, temperatures rise more rapidly throughout the year, causing summer-like conditions to arrive earlier in spring and persist well into autumn. Winters are becoming shorter and less distinct, while seasonal transitions are growing increasingly erratic.

This shift is particularly pronounced in polar regions, where melting sea ice exposes darker ocean surfaces that absorb and retain more heat, further amplifying warming.In the tropics, especially around India, warming oceans play a central role in reshaping seasonal patterns. Rising temperatures in the equatorial Indian Ocean enhance ocean-driven convection, reorganising atmospheric circulation and redirecting moisture-laden winds towards the Arabian Sea.

This has contributed to a rise in extreme weather events across central India and Uttarakhand. At the same time, the spatial pattern of the Indian summer monsoon has shifted, with rainfall intensifying in some regions while declining in traditionally productive agricultural belts.

Global warming also weakens the temperature contrasts that once helped contain extreme events. In the Pacific Ocean, faster warming near the equator reduces temperature differences, allowing atmospheric convection to spread more easily and increasing the frequency of intense El Niño events.

Put simply, global warming has loosened the climatic controls that once anchored the seasons, enabling heat and moisture to move more freely.

As a result, summers are arriving earlier, lasting longer, and increasingly overwhelming the cooler seasons on which societies and ecosystems have long relied.As seasonal patterns continue to shift and intensify, heatwaves are becoming longer and more frequent, rainfall more erratic, and agricultural risks more severe.

Farmers face growing threats from mistimed rains, heat stress and shortened growing periods, raising the likelihood of crop failures and undermining food security.

In agrarian economies such as India, and particularly within semi-arid ecosystems like Rajasthan, livelihoods are strongly shaped by seasonal cycles. In these regions, even small shifts in seasonal timing and intensity can have a disproportionate impact on agriculture, water security, and biodiversity.The predictability of seasons is critical for agricultural systems, says Dr Punia. "These systems are dependent on rainfall during the Kharif season and increasingly irrigation-dependent during the Rabi season. The changes in the onset and end of all seasons disrupt the crop calendars, thereby exposing them to heat stress, moisture deficits and unseasonal rainfall during the critical growth stages. The significant rise in minimum temperature and winter warming has led to earlier crop peak and harvesting in the Rabi season.

In contrast, the erratic rainfall during the monsoon season increases the risk of crop loss. The farmers often respond to these changes by intensifying irrigation, increasing input use, or adjusting cropping calendars, which increases livelihood vulnerability, particularly for small and marginal farmers."In semi-arid Rajasthan, biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are closely tied to narrow seasonal cycles and water-scarce conditions.

Disrupted seasonality, compounded by groundwater depletion, is reducing soil moisture and reshaping habitats. Prolonged heat and moisture stress weaken ecosystem resilience, heightening vulnerability to invasive species and increasing the risk of localised declines in plant and animal populations. The resulting loss of biodiversity diminishes essential ecosystem services, placing additional strain on agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods.More broadly, the erosion of traditional seasonal patterns, alongside rising climate extremes, is creating a cascading crisis in water sustainability across semi-arid Rajasthan, pushing already fragile socio-ecological systems closer to critical tipping points."The implications for water security in semi-arid Rajasthan are especially severe. "Due to the very limited area under the public canal irrigation systems, most farmers are almost entirely dependent on groundwater resources for agricultural and domestic needs.

The expansion of irrigated agriculture, particularly during the Rabi season, has substantially increased groundwater extraction. At the same time, changing seasonality, especially erratic rainfall and rising temperatures, has disrupted natural recharge rates.

The extreme heat during March, which now occurs more frequently and with greater intensity, further increases irrigation demand and accelerates groundwater depletion.

As a result, the water tables are declining rapidly, thereby undermining long-term water security and agricultural sustainability," Dr Punia added.The collapse of clear seasons touches almost every corner of human life:AgricultureCropping cycles were built around predictable seasonal windows. When seasons shift or shorten, farmers face mistimed planting and harvesting, increased pest pressures, water stress, and unpredictable yields.Ecosystems & BiodiversityPlant and animal species — from insects to birds to big mammals — are tuned to seasonal cues like temperature and rainfall. Disrupted cycles can lead to mismatches in food availability, migration timing, and breeding success, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem health.Culture and traditionsFestivals, rituals, and societal rhythms often align with seasonal markers — like spring blossoms, winter harvests, or monsoon celebrations.

As those rhythms blur, cultural practices may need to adapt or risk losing their context.Human healthLonger heat exposure increases heat stress and heat-related illnesses. Unpredictable rainfall affects mosquito-borne disease cycles. Water scarcity and quality issues also intersect with seasonal disruption, amplifying public health challenges.

It is like a ship that has already struck an iceberg: while it has not completely sunk, water is flooding the lower decks, and the window for preventing catastrophic failure is rapidly closing.

As Dr Perihar points out, we are already in the midst of the climate crisis, and it will only intensify in the coming years.

"It is not a future event waiting for 2030, as SDG-driven, or 15 years away in 2040, but here too, escalation and escalation thresholds are visible all around. Last year, 2024, was one of the warmest on record for India. By 2050, India’s average temperature is expected to rise another 1.2-1.3 degrees if emissions continue at moderate levels.

"Meanwhile, for millions of people, particularly in the world’s most vulnerable regions, the crisis is already a lived reality.

International organisations such as Oxfam note that climate-related disasters now displace more than 20 million people each year—nearly one person every two seconds—making extreme heat, erratic rainfall, floods and storms part of everyday life rather than distant threats. Viewed this way, climate change is not a future risk but an ongoing humanitarian emergency.From a scientific perspective, while researchers debate whether the planet has entered a phase of irreversible global collapse, there is growing agreement that several key systems—including glaciers, Arctic sea ice and permafrost—have already crossed thresholds that lock in long-term decline.

These shifts trigger dangerous feedback loops, as melting ice exposes darker surfaces that absorb more heat and further accelerate warming.

At the same time, a small minority of scientists argue that concerns about climate change are overstated, pointing to natural climate variability and questioning whether current changes meet the definition of a true crisis."Despite these differing views, a growing body of research suggests that humanity is now facing an imminent planetary emergency.

Even if the most extreme outcomes have not yet fully unfolded, the combined stresses of global warming, ecosystem degradation, pollution, and resource depletion are pushing natural systems closer to irreversible damage. In simple terms, it is like a ship that has already struck an iceberg: while it has not completely sunk, water is flooding the lower decks, and the window for preventing catastrophic failure is rapidly closing," opined Dr Punia.

Scientists warn that if greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current trajectories, seasonal disruptions will grow more pronounced. Models suggest longer summers, shorter winters, and compressed transitional periods by the end of the century — potentially altering ecosystems and economies irreversibly.Yet, understanding these trends is not merely academic. Recognizing that the Earth’s climate is crossing thresholds of seasonal familiarity is the first step toward adaptation — and mitigation.The once-familiar cadence of the seasons is under threat. What used to mark the passage of time with comforting predictability now signals an era of climatic uncertainty. When February feels like April, or when winter melts into summer without warning, humanity is faced with a stark truth: our planet’s climate is no longer behaving the way it once did. And with that shift come profound implications for nature, for our cultures, and for how we live.The year that climate stopped being seasonal may not be an exact calendar event — but it is increasingly a lived reality. And recognizing that shift is the first step toward understanding, adapting to, and — we hope — mitigating the challenges ahead.