Middle Eastern governments are watching Iran's protests

Unrest is continuing in Iran, with protesters calling for a change of government. US President Donald Trump has threatened Iran's regime and Israel's spy agency, the Mossad, has expressed support for protesters.

It is unclear what impact the protests will have. The economically motivated demonstrations have been smaller than the last major uprisings, brutally repressed, in Iran in 2022.

There have been few overt reactions from Iran's allies, neighbors and enemies in the Middle East. But, given the level of involvement Iran has in the internal politics of many countries int he region, there's no doubt that leaders are watching carefully — some likely with concern, others potentially sensing opportunity should protests weaken Iran's government.

Until comparatively recently, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates considered Iran a geopolitical rival.

Iran is a Shiite Muslim-majority country. Most Gulf Arab states are Sunni Muslim. Additionally, Iran has also always expressed its opposition to the US and Israel, while the Gulf Arab states are beholden to the US for their defense and most have unofficial working relationships with Israel, at minimum.

Historically, this saw Iran and the largest Gulf states competing for influence and power in the Middle East.

Recently, this changed. Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Iran back in 2016, but restored them in early 2023 when China brokered what is now referred to as the "Beijing agreement."

The countries may still distrust one another. But "for the Saudis, regional stability comes first since economic prosperity cannot occur in a destabilized scenario," Eleonora Ardemagni, a research fellow at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, wrote in July.

And, despite ups and downs in diplomatic relations, the UAE has been one of Iran's strongest trading partners — the Emiratis are often described as providing a "lifeline" to the heavily sanctioned country — and restored diplomatic ties in 2022.

Iraq has a troubled relationship with Iran, with which it shares a 1,599-kilometer border. It fought a devastating war against Iran between 1980 and 1988, while dictator Saddam Hussein was in charge. Hussein was toppled by the 2003 US invasion of Iraq and, over the two decades since, Iran has become an increasingly powerful political player in Iraq.

Iran supports a number of the Iraqi paramilitary groups known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF. Although first formed by Iraq's Shiite Muslim communities to fight the extremist group known as the "Islamic State," the PMF have since evolved to become a powerful part of Iraq's political and military system. Some pledge loyalty to Iranian religious and military leadership because Tehran has provided them with financial, logistical and even spiritual support.

The PMF groups are considered part of Iran's "Axis of Resistance," which is made up of groups opposed to the United States and Israel, and which also includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Hamas in Gaza. Supporting nonstate actors is part of Iran's "forward defense" strategy, which keeps fighting between Iran and its enemies, via these proxies, away from Iran's own borders.

Iran has long been involved in Lebanese politics because of its sponsorship of the Lebanon-based, Shiite Muslim group, Hezbollah, which was created during the Lebanese civil war with the goal of expelling Western, US and Israeli forces.

Hezbollah not only has an armed wing, which has sworn opposition to Israel, but a wider social network, too, that includes welfare assistance for its supporters and their families, as well as politicians in Lebanon's diverse, multiconfessional parliament. Iran supplies Hezbollah with weapons and other military support, as well as helping to pay for the group's social work.

Lebanon and Iran have formal diplomatic ties, although recently Lebanese-Iranian relations have been more fraught. A ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, brokered by the United States in late 2024, requires Hezbollah to disarm and makes the Lebanese government and military responsible for that.

The new Syrian government is unlikely to be a big fan of Iran's regime. During the 14-year civil war, Iran's military and the Iran-supported Hezbollah group fought on the side of dictator Bashar Assad. Iran was deeply embedded in Syria's politics, military and society, and experts believe that Iran's regime, a longtime Assad ally, spent over $50 billion on this effort as it tried to maintain influence in a key base on the Mediterranean.

Syria's new government is headed by members of a militia that toppled the Assad regime. Its members likely battled Iranian troops or Hezbollah fighters during the civil war.

Nonetheless, Syria's new government, which doesn't have much military power of its own and is dealing with internal security issues as the country rebuilds, has said it is open to future ties with Iran — but only if Iran does not interfere in Syrian politics.

On Wednesday, Israel's spy agency posted on its Farsi-language X (formerly Twitter) account, that it supported Iranian protesters. "Go out into the streets together. The time has come. We are with you," Mossad wrote.

Iran's prosecutor general, Mohammad Movahedi-Azad, told state media that "any attempt to turn economic protests into a tool of insecurity, destruction of public property, or implementation of externally designed scenarios will inevitably be met with a legal, proportionate and decisive response."

Israel and Iran traded bombs and missiles in June. The Israeli government will come under "pressure from inside Israel in 2026 to exploit this window of opportunity to weaken Iran further," Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa and expert on the region, told UK-based media outlet The New Arab in December, Earlier this week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was apparently discussing striking Iran again soon during his meeting with US President Donald Trump, sources told media outlet Axios.

When it comes to Iran, Jordan is trapped between long-standing defense agreements with the United States, a 1994 peace treaty and necessarily pragmatic dealings with Israel, and its alignment with the rest of the Arab world and the cause of Palestinian rights.

Hard-line Iranian politicians have previously criticized Jordan for its Israeli ties. Jordan has also been condemned by Iran for shooting down Iranian rockets as they crossed Jordanian airspace on the way to Israel in 2025.

"In recent years, Amman has engaged in high-level contacts with Tehran, hoping to defuse tensions and complement the parallel rapprochement efforts underway in the Persian Gulf [with the Saudis and Emiratis]," experts wrote in The Cairo Review in autumn. But progress, they report, has been "lackluster."

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