Opinion | Why Russia is gambling on a protracted war in Ukraine

When countries committed to supporting Ukraine met in Paris earlier this month to discuss Ukraine’s post-war security, Russia answered with fire. Just days after the summit, Moscow launched a strike that killed civilians and plunged Kyiv into darkness and cold, while also firing its nuclear-capable hypersonic Oreshnik missile towards Ukraine’s Lviv region, attacks widely seen as intimidation rather than a battlefield necessity. The world wants peace. So why does Russia keep firing?

Moscow is playing a different game. US President Donald Trump needs a deal before the US midterm elections, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky needs security guarantees to rebuild a shattered country and Europe wants relief from aid fatigue and energy costs; they’re all racing against time. Russia bets that it can outlast them all.

Russia has structural advantages that make this gamble rational. Unlike other major powers, it’s barely integrated into the global financial system. Its economy runs on commodities that people need regardless of geopolitical tensions. While sanctions hurt, Russia has increased trade with India and China.

The messier the world gets, the more valuable Russia’s disruptive capacity becomes. Prolonged conflict keeps energy prices volatile, distracts Western attention and strains alliances. This isn’t spite; it’s strategy. Russia doesn’t need global order to thrive. It needs leverage.

Politically, Moscow has time without accountability. Russian President Vladimir Putin faces no real electoral challenge. Meanwhile, Trump needs political victories before voters judge him. European leaders face parliaments questioning endless aid. Russia can sustain years of grinding conflict, free from the political costs that might cripple other Western leaders. This asymmetry is Russia’s core bet: Western impatience will crack before Russian endurance does.

To Moscow, the stakes are existential. A fully Western-oriented Ukraine that could potentially join Nato is seen as striking at the core of Russian security, eliminating buffer zones and placing Western military infrastructure on Russia’s doorstep. These aren’t manufactured concerns; they’re deeply rooted in Russian strategic thinking. If Russia can wait out Western resolve, it preserves not just territorial gains but its entire security architecture.