How coup leader Doumbouya might govern democratic Guinea

After four years as a military leader, Mamadi Doumbouya now holds a fresh mandate as Guinea's president following his resounding victory in this week's election.

Doumbouya came to power in the West African nation in a 2021 military coup that ousted President Alpha Conde.

He initially vowed not to stand for the presidency, but reversed course after a new constitution in September lifted a ban on elected posts for military officers and extended presidential terms from five years to seven years.

"It is the good old military regime, but they have changed the clothing to make it look civilian in nature," Adib Saani, a foreign policy and security analyst at the Jatikay Center for Human Security and Peace Building in Accra, Ghana, told DW.

Despite his reservations, Saani said the election marked the end of Guinea's transitional process to civilian rule.

"It is not surprising that [Doumbouya won] the elections convincingly just to prove to the international community that yes, Guinea is now a democracy," Saani said.

Regional bodies such as ECOWAS and the African Union had pushed for Guinea's swift return to democracy.

The mineral-rich but impoverished West African nation has now held elections, however Saani warns that more is needed to deepen democratic governance.

"Democracy goes beyond elections," he said.

"To what extent the institutions are democratic?" Saani asked. "To what extent we have ombudsman human rights bodies? I mean, how effective are all of these? Is what comes together to form a modern democracy that we want it to be right now?"

Doumbouya's victory was aided by a weakened and fragmented opposition, as key figures were either barred or in exile before the vote, leaving no strong challengers.

More than 50 political parties were dissolved last year in a move authorities claimed was to "clean up the political chessboard" despite widespread criticism.

Yero Balde, a former government minister, came in a distant second with just 6.51% of the vote. AFP news agency reported that another candidate, Faya Millimono, complained of "electoral banditry" linked, he said, to influence exerted on voters.

Bram Posthumus, a journalist and West Africa analyst, told DW that he does not expect Doumbouya to soften his stance on dissent.

He said that reports of enforced disappearances and kidnappings, which have multiplied in recent years, "have contributed to an atmosphere of fear, plus the exclusion of the old-style politicians."

"The repression is in place. The machinery is in place," Posthumus added. "Expect more of the same going forward."

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For many Guineans, the peaceful nature of the election was enough reason to celebrate.

"Fortunately, the elections took place without incident or killings like before, and that is truly commendable. We want Guinea to move forward, and we have many issues to resolve," said Oumar Keita, a resident of Kobaya.

Mariama Konkon expressed strong support for the president.

"President Mamadi Doumbouya has made a decisive move because we love him," she said. "We're the ones who forced him to run. We're behind him and he won."

Beyond the euphoria of victory, Guinea faces the challenge of economic recovery.

The country boasts some of the world's richest iron ore reserves and is the second-largest producer of bauxite, a key source of aluminum. According to the World Bank, mining contributes about 35% to Guinea's GDP.

When Doumbouya seized power, he sought to streamline Guinea's mining sector. The Simandou project — a 75% Chinese-owned mega iron ore venture — has been central to his plans.

Last month, Guinea shipped its first iron ore cargo from site after decades of delay, sending 200,000 tonnes of high-grade ore to China.

Doumbouya built his election campaign around the promise of this project. Posthumus emphasized its importance.

"Everything in Guinea is about Simandou, literally everything. It's supposed to be the goose that will lay the golden eggs," he said.

"There is a program called Simandou 2040, which is an agenda that runs from education to healthcare to agriculture to infrastructure to intermediate technology to IT, all going to be helped along on the strength of what Simandou will bring in in terms of revenues."

However, Posthumus warned that lack of transparency could undermine progress.

"If you see that pattern repeating itself, you need to break that pattern before you can actually talk about all the other things, because that's where the money is concentrated," he told DW.

"And if it doesn't get distributed equally, we're still having the same problems."

Guinea's transition from military to civilian rule has sparked speculation that Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger might follow suit. But Saani doubts this will happen soon.

"The situations in these countries differ [from Guinea]," he said. Still, he hopes that successful reforms in Guinea could inspire others to return to democracy.

Saani noted that in order for Guinea to succeed, Doumbouya must tackle corruption and strengthen governance.

"They would have to curb corruption. [Corruption] is synonymous with a lot of governance, whether it is military or even so-called democratic in West Africa and the wider African continent," he said.

"There's a need for them to build democratic institutions, make governance more effective and efficient. They need to address the marginalization of certain groups within their countries."

"Guinea is essentially, always has been an annexed extractive economy," he said.

"And extractive economies have this tendency to create little islands of prosperity around the mining operations from which nobody else profits."