While US, Ukrainian, and European politicians and diplomats explore the details of a peace proposal put forward by the US, Ukrainians in the war-torn country are also discussing the future and what kind of agreement would be acceptable. Which "red lines" must not be crossed under any circumstance?
According to a number of polls, the majority of Ukrainians do not want to accept a peace plan that involves territorial concessions and does not provide security guarantees. A study by the New Europe Center, a Ukrainian non-profit, found that almost 65% of the population believes that Ukraine should not enter into negotiations with Russia without security guarantees, and more than 86% is convinced that freezing the front line would only delay another Russian aggression.
A survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) shows that 75% of Ukrainians reject the US-proposed plan, which envisions the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbasand limiting the size of Ukraine's army. "The majority are open to negotiations and ending the war through diplomatic means, and are even willing to make difficult compromises," the executive director of KIIS, Anton Hrushetskyi, told DW. "At the same time, however, most reject plans that are perceived as surrender." Thus, he explained, a good majority of Ukrainians were willing to endure the war for as long as necessary.
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This clear stance in Ukrainian society is beneficial for the Ukrainian government. Oleksiy Haran from the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation said that this was not a new phenomenon. "Even under President Petro Poroshenko, the public drew clear red lines that could not be crossed. Today, public opinion is helping [Ukrainian President] Volodymyr Zelenskyy to counter pressure from the US and make it clear what the Ukrainian people will not accept. Public opinion is an argument for Zelenskyy in negotiations with the US. He can point out that discontent could destabilize Ukraine and provoke conflict within the country — and that is exactly what [Russian President] Vladimir Putin wants."
Thus, he predicted, the Ukrainian government will not sign any agreements that could trigger protests. Oleh Saakjan, a co-founder of the National Platform for Resilience and Cohesion, a Ukrainian civic initiative, explained that a recent corruption scandal surrounding the president had weakened him and strengthened the role of the public as a kind of safeguard in the negotiations. "Zelenskyy's options for compromise have become even more limited," he told DW. "In the US, some were pleased about the scandal and hoped that Zelenskyy would now be more willing to compromise on a peace agreement," he said while pointing out that actually, the opposite had happened. Ukrainian society is leaving Zelensky little room for maneuver in the negotiations, he explained.
Surveys also show that Ukrainians are prepared to protest against an unfair dictated peace. According to one conducted by the New Europe Center, half of all Ukrainians would take to the streets if their government made compromises that they found unacceptable. Saakjan said that Ukrainian society had a crucial role to play when it came to rejecting simply unacceptable agreements and the government was aware of society's red lines thanks to several polls
These would include a failure to put in place adequate security guarantees, territorial concessions and the holding of elections without appropriate safeguards, he said. However, he explained that the population would be willing to accept the country dropping its bid to join NATO if this were "the only bitter pill of an agreement." He said that for this to be possible the agreement would have to include guarantees in line with those provided by Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which obliges NATO members to support allies in the event of an attack.
Oleksandr Sushko from the International Renaissance Foundation, a Ukrainian NGO, told DW that the crucial question was how the polls matched the political reality faced by the Ukrainian government in the negotiation process.
"Ukrainian society takes the question of the price of peace very seriously. Despite all the tragedies of the war and the high toll Ukraine is paying for the daily continuation of hostilities, Ukrainians clearly want the outcome to not jeopardize the sovereignty, independence, and fundamental pillars of the state, especially its defense capabilities," Sushko said, adding that the relationship between the government and the population would be tested by the search for compromise.
To prevent internal tensions rising, he recommended that the government engage in an honest dialogue with the population on the question of security guarantees, limiting the size of the army and other sensitive issues, particularly if these were already the subject of concrete talks.
This article was originally published in Ukrainian.
