A small group of soldiers appeared on Benin's state television station on a Sunday morning in early December and announced that President Patrice Talon had been "removed from office as president of the republic."
The mutineers cited the poor handling of the deteriorating security situation in northern Benin "coupled with the disregard and neglect of our fallen brothers-in-arms" — a reference to Beninese soldiers killed in clashes with militants near the borders with Burkina Faso and Niger.
Within moments, a familiar fear rippled across West Africa, a region that has recently seen a resurgence of coups amid widespread insecurity and economic crises.
However, the coup was quickly thwarted following a swift response from loyal army forces, who were joined by air attacks and troops deployed from neighboring Nigeria.
Countries like Chad, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and most recently Guinea Bissau have been overtaken by military juntas in recent years.
For decades, Nigeria was the region's de facto "big brother" that made the continent the center of its foreign policy.
From its intervention in deadly conflicts in Liberia and Sierra Leone to its influence over the West African bloc ECOWAS, Nigeria has played a central role in maintaining peace, promoting democracy and supporting faster economic development in the region.
In 2003, the continent's most populous nation was instrumental in restoring democracy in Sao Tome and Principe and reinstated President Fradique de Menezes who had been toppled in a military coup.
Even as its influence waned, Nigeria took a firm stance against what ECOWAS termed an "unconstitutional change of government in Gambia in early 2017.
Abuja helped force out Gambia's longtime strongman Yahya Jammeh after he initially refused to concede defeat to businessman and political newcomer Adama Barrow.
Today, blighted by insecurity and economic crises, Nigeria's efforts to deter regional instability have waned, analysts told DW.
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In 2013, Nigeria withdrew some of its 1,200 soldiers from the UN peacekeeping mission in Mali to beef up security in its embattled northern region.
For more than a decade now, Nigeria has been faced with a complex security crisis, with Islamist groups waging a bloody insurgency in the northeast while criminal gangs known among locals as bandits prowl its northwest.
"Nigeria's economic and security challenges have made it insular and absent from regional power projections as it has had to commit troops to fighting homegrown terror threats in the form of multiple Islamic insurgencies and banditry," said Confidence MacHarry, a senior analyst at the Lagos-based consultancy firm SBM Intelligence.
"And these have all combined to take a huge toll on the country's economy which has largely affected its ability to take on regional commitments."
Nigeria has long invested heavily in ECOWAS, which relies on the country for funding, military muscle and political leadership, as it accounts for half of West Africa's population and its largest economy.
Abuja often used this military and economic strength to lead security cooperation and promote democratic norms.
A less assertive Nigeria means that the bloc grapples with enforcing its security and democratic mandates effectively.
In 2023, following the putsch in Niger, the bloc slapped a series of sanctions on Niamey and even threatened military intervention. But couldn't see through the threats.
This led to further balkanization with the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a confederation that was formed by the junta-led nations of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
"The internal security challenges have become so significant that Nigeria can't afford to undertake a significant or sustained military intervention outside its borders," James Barnett, a security expert, told DW.
"The military is simply too overstretched. This was one reason that ECOWAS's ultimatum to Niger's junta in 2023 was unpersuasive."
Barnett nnoted that Nigerian forces would have struggled to reach Niamey because "much of the surrounding countryside is occupied by armed groups."
The absence of a confident Nigerian lead has not only weakened the regional bloc, but also enabled other actors to fill the vacuum, MacHarry noted.
The vacuum is being filled especially in terms of defense cooperation with foreign mercenaries such as the Wagner Group, now rebranded as Africa Corps. In Mali, the Corps has asserted itself and extended into neighboring Niger and Burkina Faso.
Many of these interventions have proven antithetical to Nigeria's foreign policy which has extensively been pro-West "and for the region as these actors are stepping into the voids to severely undermine Nigeria's credibility and leadership in the region. So what this means is less cohesion and less integration," MacHarry concluded.
Nigeria's most recent general elections were marred by irregularities, with observers raising concerns about transparency and voters' trust.
The vote left the country deeply polarized and complicated its ability or that of ECOWAS to enforce constitutional order elsewhere.
"Nigeria has certainly been a major force in ECOWAS over the years, but it's not the only one, and the challenges ECOWAS has faced are not solely linked to Nigeria's growing domestic troubles," Barnett said.
"The fact that some West African leaders have employed questionable or blatantly undemocratic measures to stay in power has undermined the group's credibility and helps feed AES-aligned propaganda," Barnett added.
The consequences of Nigeria's retreat invariably feed back into its internal dynamics.
Instability in neighboring Niger and by extension in Mali and Burkina Faso has heightened fears of spillovers, including cross-border arms smuggling and movement of armed groups from the Sahel region.
The country shares a 1,600-kilometer (994-mile) porous border with Niger alone.
More than two years after Nigeria, alongside several other ECOWAS members, tried to reverse the coup in Niger despite threatening military action, relations between the two countries have been frosty amid growing security threats along the Nigeria-Niger border, James Barnett said.
Barnett argued that this likely influenced Nigeria's decision to act quickly in Benin while the coup attempt was still in process.
"There was a narrow window of opportunity for Nigeria to potentially help halt the coup attempt in Cotonou, whereas if he [Tinubu] had prevaricated and the coup had succeeded, Nigeria would have faced another hostile military regime next door at a time when jihadists are spreading along the Benin-Nigeria border."
