Are Trump's threats to Iran helping or harming protesters?

US President Donald Trump repeated his warnings to Tehran this weekend, as protesters inside Iran mount yet another challenge to the regime of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

"We are monitoring this situation very closely," Trump told reporters. "If they (the Iranian government) start killing people like they have in the past, I think they will be hit very hard by the United States."

Trump's comments follow over a week of unrest in Iran. According to human rights groups, at least 16 protesters have been killed, dozens injured, and a large number arrested. In one of the latest incidents, security forces reportedly attacked a central hospital in the western city of Ilam, where many injured protesters were receiving treatment.

The pressure from Washington amid the escalating violence is fueling a debate inside Iran: Some argue that Trump's statements could encourage the protesters, while others warn they are also likely to be used by the regime to justify and intensify their repression.

Kamran Matin, professor of international relations at the University of Sussex in the UK, says the experience of the 2009 Green Movement shows that the lack of Western support made the Islamic Republic bolder in suppressing protesters.

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"Trump's threat of action against the regime, especially after what happened to Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro, is likely to strengthen protesters' morale and reduce the regime's confidence in using force," Matin says.

The Green Movement emerged after Iran's disputed 2009 presidential election. The regime claimed that the vote was handsomely won by then incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, while the opposition alleged widespread electoral fraud. Protesters took to the streets to support Ahmadinejad's rival Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who had used the color green as one of his campaign symbols.

The movement, however, received no firm political backing from Western governments, including the United States under President Barack Obama. Despite demonstrators chanting Obama's name and appealing for US support, Washington refrained from overt intervention.

The ensuingcrackdown on the Green Movement led to the arrest of thousands of government opponents. Dozens of demonstrators were killed, and the regime endured and continued its political repression to this day.

As Iranians both inside the country and in exile respond to Trump's statements, they seem to do so according to an ideological pattern: Right-wing opponents of the regime, particularly monarchists and some ethnic opposition groups, are more welcoming than others.

Other parts of the opposition remain skeptical, and some opposition figures have notably chosen to stay silent.

Behrooz Asadi, an Iranian-German politician and award-winning human rights activist, says international support should be given "without conditions, without dependency, and without interference in Iran's national interests."

"If such support defends the right to peaceful assembly in line with international conventions, it can be welcomed," Asadi says.

At the same time, he strongly warns against military action. "We are firmly opposed to war and military attacks. No war has ever brought democracy," he told DW.

Political analyst Abdolreza Ahmadi takes a more positive view. He says Trump's message has "opened a new window" and allowed protesters to feel international backing more directly.

"After the message was published, the protests expanded," Ahmadi argues."The threat sends a legal and political deterrent signal, and the European Union cannot remain neutral."

By contrast, Taghi Rahmani, an Iranian political activist and the husband of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, says Trump's approach undermines the international legal and ethical order established after World War II.

"There is an international system in which the United Nations addresses human rights violations through law," Rahmani says. "Trump's message suggests that the United States, as the world's most powerful country, can act on its own. This is not acceptable within today's legal and ethical framework."

Rahmani also raised the issue of Trump's reliability in light of the recent US intervention to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

Trump "has made contradictory statements, even on Venezuela," Rahmani told DW. "These shifts make US intervention unpredictable and potentially harmful."

Tehran has strongly criticized Trump's statements, with regime officials calling them "reckless and dangerous" and accusing Washington of interfering in Iran's internal affairs.

Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said comments by US and Israeli officials had revealed the "real forces behind the unrest."

He warned that US involvement would lead to instability, adding that "interference in Iran's internal affairs would mean chaos in the region and damage to US interests." He also cautioned Americans to "watch out for their soldiers," accusing Trump of pushing the country toward dangerous adventurism.

Ali Shamkhani, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, also responded sharply. He said Iranians were familiar with US military involvement abroad, referring to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Gaza.

"Any hand that approaches Iran's security under any pretext will be cut off with a painful response," Shamkhani said. "Iran's national security is a red line and not a subject for adventurous tweets."

Iran has also formally raised the issue at the United Nations, calling Trump's remarks irresponsible and a threat to regional stability.

Tensions between Washington and Tehran have escalated further following the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities last year and the preceding war with Israel. On one hand, this violence has heightened fears of a broader regional conflict, while on the other, it has bolstered the hopes of Iranian protesters for change — or even the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.