Nigeria: Can US airstrikes weaken Islamist militants?

The United States' recent strikes against Islamic State militants in northwest Nigeria have stirred debate about the true impact of this military action in Africa's most populous nation.

"Nigerians are frustrated that in the last 15 years, their lives have not been taken seriously," Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, of the Abuja-based Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), told DW.

He adds that while Nigerians welcome external support, they remain cautious: "The issue is whether this foreign intervention is going to really help to deal decisively with this insecurity in Nigeria is what many people are not sure of."

Security and policy analyst Olajumoke Ayandele told DW that while counter-terrorism efforts are not solutions on their own, "international intervention can be tactically effective, especially in the short term."

"Precision attacks can disrupt leadership of Islamic State-affiliated groups, degrade their capabilities, and even buy the military time," US-based Ayandele added.

So far, the Nigerian government has confirmed it approved the strikes, saying they followed "extensive intelligence gathering, operational planning, and reconnaissance."

"A total of 16 GPS-guided precision munitions were deployed using MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial platforms, successfully neutralizing the targeted ISIS elements attempting to penetrate Nigeria from the Sahel corridor," the government stated.

However, even days after the strikes, authorities remain unable to confirm whether there were any civilian casualties or deaths among the targeted militants. DW correspondents monitoring the aftermath reported that while some structures were destroyed, casualty figures are still unknown.

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"The number of terrorist casualties is not yet known because these territories are not where people can go easily," DW's Abuja-based reporter Ben Shemang said, adding that militant silence could be strategic to maintain resilience.

The Nigerian government emphasized the targeted camps foreign Islamic State elements working with local affiliates were using the camps to plan large-scale attacks inside Nigeria.

"The ongoing operations are geared towards securing the state and ensuring the protection of lives and property," the state government said.

Miriam Adah, researcher at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), said the Nigerian government's confirmation that it had knowledge of the strikes "shows that there has been intelligence sharing between the two countries."

She told DW: "This is probably going to open pathways for the US to sell weapons to Nigeria which will aid Nigeria's fight against terrorism and insecurity across different regions."

Analyst Ayandele told DW the strikes are a precedent for further United States involvement: "This has not been described as a one-off intervention or campaign. I think it's going to depend on how Washington assesses the evolving threat environment and whether Nigeria requests continued support from the US."

Ayandele stressed Nigeria's desire to maintain operational control: "Nigeria wants flexibility, especially when it comes to high-end capabilities when necessary. But they also want to maintain their operational control."

Nigeria has fought Islamist insurgents for over a decade, but the appearance of foreign fighters linked to IS signals an escalation. The US strikes around Christmas time hold symbolism following President Trump's October warning that Christianity faces an "existential threat" in Nigeria. Trump previously threatened military intervention over violence allegedly targeting Christian communities. But many analysts argue the terror threat affects all Nigerians regardless of religion.

Conflict researcher Adah cautions against overestimating the impact of the air strikes: "So far there's no casualties, there's no fatalities. We don't have the full picture yet."

While Trump described the US military action as a "powerful and deadly strike," Adah told DW: "We cannot say that one air strike or a few air strikes will quell insecurity in the region or will protect Nigerians from activities of terrorists or bandit groups across the country."

For Olajumoke Ayandele, long-term security depends on "local governance, state presence, economic opportunities, and rebuilding trust between civilians and security forces."

She added: "Without this, military gains might be in vain. External partners like the US can support, but ultimately stability has to be built within Nigeria."