Germany: Trust in the United States is eroding

There had been indications for some time that the US had its sights set on Venezuela. However, themilitary intervention in the South American country came as a surprise to many people. On the night of January 3, Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife were arrested on suspicion of drug trafficking and taken to the US.

When asked, seven out of ten Germans consider the action unjustified. This is according to the latest ARD Deutschlandtrend survey, for which pollster infratest-dimap surveyed 1,323 eligible German voters between January 5 and 7.

Half of all respondents believe that Germany and the European Union should strongly criticize the US action, even if this might anger US President Donald Trump. It is only the majority of supporters of the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), Germany's biggest opposition party, who advocate restraint on this matter.

Can NATO still rely on the US?

While the German government is exercising restraint, individual lawmakers have said the military intervention violates international law.

The action has further damaged the US's reputation among German voters. Eight out of ten respondents are dissatisfied with the US president. Many say they are concerned that world politics is increasingly governed by "the law of the jungle." Sixty-nine percent are worried about security in Europe and 62% about the relationship between Germany and the US.

Only about one in seven respondents currently considers the US to be a trustworthy partner for Germany, the lowest figure ever recorded in the monthly poll. Only Russia enjoys less respect, with 83% rating it as untrustworthy.

German citizens have serious doubts about whether the US can continue to be relied upon as a protective power within the NATO alliance. A good half of the respondents said they support the idea of a European military alliance that is more independent of NATO.

As in previous months, a clear majority of German voters are dissatisfied with the government's work. Overall, only one in five eligible voters is happy with the federal government's performance.

Respondents to the survey rated the economic situation in Germany as only slightly better than a year ago. Dealing with immigration to Germany also remains a challenge for the government. Although doubts about the state's ability to control and manage immigration have declined significantly overall, 61% still says that the government does not have the situation under control.

Only among supporters of the Green Party does a clear majority believe that immigration is being managed well or very well. Among supporters of the SPD, CDU/CSU, and Left Party, opinions are evenly divided. Almost all supporters of the AfD, which is partly right-wing extremist, continue to say that immigration is not being managed successfully.

Will the coalition between the CDU, CSU, and SPD hold?

Dissatisfaction with the ruling coalition of center-right Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) with the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) remains, eight months after it came to office.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz remains widely unpopular, with one in four eligible voters saying he is doing a good job. That is slightly worse than the numbers for SPD Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil.

Dissatisfaction with the government stems primarily from government infighting. Only about half (48%) consider it likely that the coalition government will survive the next twelve months, while just as many (45%) expect it to fail.

It is unclear which parties could govern in what constellation after new elections. Based on the current poll numbers, the incumbent coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD would no longer have a majority.

The CDU/CSU improved by one point compared to December, to 28%. Support for the SPD declined by the same amount and, as last summer, stands at 13%. The AfD remains in second place with 25% nationwide. The Greens and the Left remain unchanged at 12% and 10%, respectively. Other parties, including the economically left-wing, politically conservative populist Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), would not pass the 5% threshold for representation in the Bundestag.

This article was originally written in German.

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