Does the renewal of Ganga Water Treaty need a basin-centric approach?

Amid strained bilateral relations since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in 2024, India and Bangladesh have begun negotiations to renew the Ganga Water Treaty, which is set to expire in December 2026.

The two nations face the critical task of renegotiating the agreement that balances historical commitments with contemporary hydrological realities and future climate uncertainties. It would require a basin-wide river management, rather than the present focus on the quantum of water.

But how would a basin-centric approach help address the changed hydrological, developmental, and climatic realities? Let’s explore. But first, a brief overview of the Ganga Water Treaty and its key provisions.

India is the upper riparian state in the Ganga Basin, which covers a total area of approximately 1.08 million sq km. Approximately 79 per cent of the total basin area lies in India. The River Ganga (called the Padma in Bangladesh) flows for 260 km within Bangladesh, forming a transboundary flow with India before joining the Jamuna (Brahmaputra) at Goalandaghat, some 72 km west of Dhaka.

Concerns over water-sharing arose in 1975 when India constructed the Farakka Barrage, located just 10 kilometres from the India-Bangladesh border. Designed to divert water to the Hooghly River to maintain navigability of the Kolkata port (now known as Syama Prasad Mookerjee Port), the barrage immediately raised concerns in Bangladesh about reduced water flow, leading to disputes over water-sharing between the two sides. The dispute escalated to the United Nations in 1976, highlighting the urgency of finding a negotiated solution.

In 1977, an agreement was reached that led to the signing of a five-year treaty (1978-1982). It included a crucial ‘Guarantee Clause’ stipulating that if water flow dropped below 55,000 cusecs during the leanest period (April 21 to May 31), Bangladesh would be guaranteed at least 80 per cent of its stipulated water (approximately 27,000 cusecs) for the concerned ten-day period.

The agreement was extended for two more years in 1982, but the ‘Minimum Guarantee Clause’ was deleted. It was renewed again in 1985 for three more years, but after its expiration in 1988, there was a policy vacuum until 1996.

After prolonged negotiations, former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda of India and the then Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh signed the Ganga Water Treaty on December 12, 1996, in Delhi. This treaty was for 30 years and will expire in 2026.

According to the treaty, water allocation between the two countries is to be determined using historical flow data (1949-1988). It is based on the average flow of a 10-day period during the dry season (January 1 to May 31). The treaty makes the following arrangements regarding water sharing: 1. If the flow is 70,000 cusecs or less, water will be divided 50:50.

2. If the flow is between 70,000-75,000 cusecs, Bangladesh will get 35,000 cusecs.

3. If the flow is 75,000 cusecs or more, India will receive 40,000 cusecs; the rest will flow to Bangladesh.

The treaty ensures that India and Bangladesh each will receive 35,000 cusecs of water in alternate three 10-day periods from March 11 to May 11. If the water flow at Farakka falls below 50,000 cusecs in any 10-day period, both governments will make immediate consultations on an emergency basis, considering the principles of equity.

The implementation of these provisions and consultations during periods of stress is anchored in an institutional mechanism between the two countries: the Joint Rivers Commission.

Just a year after the formation of Bangladesh in 1971, India and Bangladesh jointly constituted the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC) in 1972. The commission was established as a bilateral mechanism for resolving disputes, ensuring compliance and cooperation across shared rivers (54 transboundary streams) for water sharing, flood control, advanced flood warnings and forecasting, irrigation projects, and cyclone warnings.

The commission serves as the principal channel for joint study, planning, and recommendation on shared rivers to maximise mutual benefits for both countries. After signing the Ganga Water Treaty in 1996, a joint committee with an equal number of representatives from both countries was tasked with monitoring daily flows at Farakka and Hardinge Bridge, exchanging data, and ensuring the proper implementation.

The committee typically meets three times a year to supervise the execution of the treaty. The 86th meeting of the committee was held in Kolkata on 6 March last year.

Before the formal negotiations for renewing the treaty begin, both India and Bangladesh have articulated concerns reflecting changed circumstances. Bangladesh has repeatedly stated that during lean periods, it hasn’t always received its allocated share in accordance with treaty provisions.

The formula is based on historical flow data (1949-1988), which does not accurately reflect current hydrological realities. Absence of any provision regarding ‘minimum guaranteed flow’ is also seen as a limitation of the present treaty.

Given its heavy dependence on the Ganga for agriculture, fisheries, and drinking water, Bangladesh now seeks a longer renewal period with more extensive flood data sharing, and guaranteed release of 40,000 cusecs, especially during the lean months of February to May.

However, India looks for a short-term renewal period of 10-15 years that aligns with its current developmental demands, including water for drinking, irrigation, industrial use, and smooth operations of its Syama Prasad Mookerjee Port. A shorter renewal term will provide flexibility to adjust a balance between fluctuating water availability and the developmental needs of both sides.

The current treaty is broadly focussed on the quantum of water. However, there is a need now to consider a basin-wide river management, which will include aspects such as climate change, environmental flow, navigational and socio-economic needs.

The current treaty is centred on a single location – the Farakka barrage – and does not adequately account for the need and use of upstream regions of the basin and its effect on the water availability at the barrage, creating a mismatch between treaty commitments and hydrological realities.

The impact of climate change, which transcends political boundaries, has fundamentally altered the Ganga Basin’s water dynamics. Historical flow averages don’t account for monsoon variability, glacial retreat, extreme floods, and increasing water demands for domestic, agricultural, and industrial purposes upstream.

The basin receives most rainfall during the southwest monsoon, characterised by flooding, while dry months see dramatically reduced flows with significant implications for drinking needs, agriculture, fisheries, and navigation.

The health of the entire Ganga ecosystem, including its biodiversity, is interconnected. This requires a comprehensive basin-centric approach rather than a single location approach when renewing the treaty. This holistic approach will help in addressing the demand and supply asymmetries, especially in water-stress situations.

Demand for Ganga river’s water has increased on both sides of the border. India’s growing population, agricultural needs, urbanisation and rapid industrial expansion require greater water security. Similarly, Bangladesh also needs more water for its food and livelihood security.

The renewed agreement needs to include a comprehensive and dynamic transboundary water-sharing structure based on the real-time river flows, data transparency, and climate-resilient flood and drought management strategies.

It should also treat Ganga not just as a river but as an ecological system, the health of which is essential. The renewal of this treaty is an opportunity to mitigate shared climate threats while addressing their national interests through regional cooperation.

Analyse the key challenges and opportunities in renegotiating the renewal of the Ganga Water Treaty between India and Bangladesh.

Discuss the limitations of the existing Ganga Water Treaty in the context of changing hydrological and climatic realities. How can a basin-wide management approach address these limitations?

Analyse the institutional role of the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC) in managing India–Bangladesh river water cooperation. What reforms are needed to make it more effective?

Bangladesh’s demand for a guaranteed minimum flow and India’s preference for a shorter treaty duration reflect divergent developmental priorities. Critically examine.

Water-sharing treaties in the 21st century must be climate-smart, ecology-centric, and institutionally robust. Discuss with reference to the Ganga Basin.

(Abhinav Rai is a Doctoral candidate at the Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi.)

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