One question continues to arise after the recent killing of two US soldiers and a civilian translator in central Syria by a follower of the extremist "Islamic State" group.
The killer had infiltrated the Syrian security forces. How many others in the Syrian security forces might hold similarly extreme opinions?
The attack "exposes holes in the Syrian government's intelligence capabilities, a known vulnerability given the shortages of personnel and resources, and the country's geographic instability," Syrian researcher and journalist Subhi Franjieh wrote for London-based media outlet Al Majalla shortly afterward.
"The Palmyra attack may be used to argue that the Syrian government is compromised and cannot be trusted in key areas like counterterrorism."
Franjieh points out that, although Syria joined the US-led global coalition fighting the "Islamic State" in November, the international coalition is so far only cooperating with the Syrian Ministry of Interior, not the local Ministry of Defense. The latter is seen as not yet fully established and secure.
Just under a week after the killings of the Americans in Palmyra, the "IS" group published a message on its Telegram channel describing the deaths as a "blow" to the US and to any Syrians opposed to it. It did not, however, claim direct responsibility, and it seems that — similarly to the two men who recently targeted a Jewish gathering in Australia — the attack may have been "inspired" by the extremist group.
Experts agree that there could be more individuals in the Syrian security forces who sympathize with or are inspired by the "IS" group.
They say one of the main problems is that the Syrian government has been trying to establish a new military at speed following the ouster of the country's Bashar Assad dictatorship in December 2024.
Shortly after the Palmyra attack, a spokesperson for the Interior Ministry said that 5,000 new recruits were added to its forces in the area where the attack happened. When the "IS" group was at the height of its power, it controlled large swathes of Syria and Iraq, including Palmyra.
The spokesperson also said there were weekly evaluations of those personnel and that the "IS" supporter who killed the Americans and a Syrian officer had already been on a watchlist. He was to be dismissed the day after the attack.
The new Syrian authorities were forced to choose between recruiting more people fast or undertaking a slower, more intensive vetting process, Jerome Drevon, an expert on Islamist militancy the International Crisis Group, a think tank, explained last week. The authorities went for the faster option, but, as Drevon told UK-based publication The Arab Weekly, some of their recruits may be "more radical, willing to fight US troops, because they oppose the government's decision to reach out to Western countries."
Additionally, as Masood Al Hakari, a researcher at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, wrote earlier this year, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the militia Syria's Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa headed, was previously linked to both the "IS" group and al-Qaeda. Over time, HTS severed links with those groups and even fought "IS" in the territory it controlled, but, as Al Hakari says, HTS likely "still harbors extremists with sympathies for 'IS' ideology."
There are estimated to still be around 2,500 "IS" fighters in Iraq and Syria, mostly in hiding or in sleeper cells. Because of the difficulty of ensuring security, the remote Syrian desert has long been a favored location for them.
Over the weekend, the US conducted over 70 strikes in Syria, mostly on remote areas north of Palmyra. The US raids were a "very serious retaliation" for the Palmyra attack, US President Donald Trump said. Reports say five people were killed as result.
There are thousands of former "IS" members in prison camps in northern Syria who pose a danger, PRIF's Al Hakari explains. But the most significant factor that makes the "IS" group such a threat is the economic, political and security environment in the country, he and other experts say.
The Syrian dictatorship was toppled after 14 years of civil war, and the new Syrian authorities don't yet have complete control of security in the country. In some areas, there's been fighting between the new authorities and minority communities, which has added to the security issues. The very difficult economic environment also creates discontent.
All these "create fertile ground for 'IS' to exploit governance voids and public unrest, positioning itself as an alternative form of governance and expanding its influence," notes Al Hakari.
"IS" attacks on government areas have increased since the change of government, and other experts note that the group's followers now seem to want to deliberately undermine the new authorities.
For example, Syrian security forces say that in late November, they found an "IS" cell in Latakia. Latakia is actually populated mainly by the Alawite minority, a group "IS" followers might usually classify as infidels. The Alawites are perceived as linked to the former dictatorship because the Assad family was also Alawite and has been targeted as a result of that. Alawite neighborhoods remain volatile and ripe for unrest.
Over the past weekend, two gunmen randomly fired at people on a street in a fairly remote village in central Syria, near Salamiyah city. The area is home mainly to another minority, the Ismailis, and although nobody knows who was responsible, Salamiyah's mayor said he thought the "IS" group could have done it.
However, it will take time to extinguish the threat posed by the "IS" group in Syria altogether, if indeed it is possible to wipe out the extremist ideology at all.
"The threat posed by 'IS' militants in Syria is more severe than in any other country in the region," Al Hakari says.