Projecting the final CFP top 12: Where does Alabama land?

Someone is going to be upset -- and it's not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee's biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide -- and the result could mean the difference for Miami's playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season -- on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee's final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama's poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10? Remember, because the five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids, only the top 10 teams in the rankings are lined up to make the field.Here's our prediction for what the committee's sixth and final ranking will look like and how the bracket would set up on Selection Day.Jump to: Ranking | BracketProjecting the top 121. Indiana Hoosiers (13-0)Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee's No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control -- and that was before they beat Ohio State.Why they could be lower: This isn't a realistic scenario.Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.2. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1)Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season -- to the committee's No. 2 team -- and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes' talent and consistent dominance.Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State's best win is a close home game against Texas -- a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State's strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it's highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.3. Georgia Bulldogs (12-1)Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs' lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech's loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN's strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee's No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.Need to know: The Bulldogs' 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia's largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (12-1)Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they've owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders' defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech's lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency -- behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).5. Oregon Ducks (11-1)Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks' Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn't hurt that the Ducks' only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.Why they could be higher: It's unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State's victory against Texas trumps Oregon's best win against USC.Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.6. Ole Miss Rebels (11-1)Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels' Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels' 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That's the kind of result that could impact an idle team's résumé.Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.7. Texas A&M Aggies (11-1)Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn't play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn't impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies' four road wins.Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won't sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee's toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn't play Alabama during the regular season, it's possible they could meet in the first round.8. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2)Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win -- even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU's back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide's loss to Georgia doesn't diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma's loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners' loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.Why they could be higher: It's unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday's results didn't directly impact their place.Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2)Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech -- preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in -- and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama's Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame's favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami's head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee's top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.10. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-3)Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game -- with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama's inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama's win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama's win against Georgia is better than Miami's victory against Notre Dame.Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won't be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game -- it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee's top 10 every week.11. Miami Hurricanes (10-2)Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it's possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn't have to deal with the head-to-head -- that's not how the voting works -- but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss -- and poor play -- in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with -- Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.12. BYU Cougars (11-2)Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU's wins aren't as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns' defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.Why they could be higher: BYU's only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami's losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN's strength of record metric, and it won't be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn't play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.BracketBased on the rankings above, the seeding would be:First-round byesNo. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ) No. 2 Ohio State No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ) No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)First-round gamesOn campus, Dec. 19 and 20No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 OklahomaQuarterfinal gamesAt the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana