CFP Rankings Approaching: A Deep Dive into the Penultimate Top 12 Projection
As the college football season barrels towards its climax, the College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee is set to release its fifth and penultimate rankings. With Rivalry Week in the rearview mirror, the landscape has largely solidified, although conference championship games loom large, promising potential upheaval. This projection analyzes the top 12 teams and their prospects heading into the final rankings before Selection Day.
The Projected Top Four
1. Ohio State Buckeyes: Ohio State's dominant performance against Michigan reinforces their claim to the top spot. Their physical prowess, as highlighted by Booger McFarland, continues to impress the committee. Despite a relatively weaker schedule, their game control and talent have been undeniable. Even a loss to Indiana in the Big Ten title game wouldn't necessarily knock them out of the top four.
2. Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers have consistently remained just behind Ohio State in the committee's eyes. Their decisive win over Purdue solidifies their position. Although their resume lacks multiple top-25 wins, their overall efficiency and strength of record metrics are exceptional. A Big Ten championship victory over Ohio State would undoubtedly propel them to the top.
3. Georgia Bulldogs: A victory against rival Georgia Tech, coupled with Texas A&M's loss, should elevate the Bulldogs. Their dominant win over Texas remains a key data point for the committee. Despite offensive inconsistencies, their defense and crucial wins against Tennessee and Ole Miss bolster their case. A close loss to Alabama in the SEC championship wouldn't necessarily eliminate them from playoff contention.
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders: The Red Raiders' dominant performance against West Virginia, particularly in the first half, positions them for a potential top-four spot. Their consistent dominance and high scoring margin have caught the committee's attention. While their loss to Arizona State is a blemish, a Big 12 title would secure their place. Even as a two-loss runner-up, their regular-season win against the eventual Big 12 champion provides a safety net.
Contenders on the Cusp
5. Oregon Ducks: A solid win at Washington positions Oregon for a potential rise in the rankings. The Ducks' top-five ranking in both offensive and defensive efficiency is a strong selling point. Even if they remain behind Texas A&M, they are well-positioned for a first-round home game as one of the highest-ranked one-loss teams.
6. Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies' loss to Texas significantly hurts their playoff aspirations. Their lone top-25 win against Notre Dame might not be enough to maintain a top-four spot. They are likely to fall behind Georgia and face competition from Texas Tech and Oregon. However, their four road wins and strong strength of schedule could prevent a significant drop.
7. Ole Miss Rebels: The Egg Bowl victory against Mississippi State secures the Rebels' playoff spot and keeps them in contention for hosting a first-round game. Their win at Oklahoma provides an edge over the Sooners. The Rebels' strong performance against Tulane further strengthens their resume.
8. Oklahoma Sooners: Oklahoma's elite defense continues to compensate for offensive shortcomings. Road wins against Tennessee and Alabama are significant. However, their loss to Ole Miss and offensive efficiency ranking could limit their upward mobility.
The Bubble Teams
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: A decisive win at Stanford reinforces Notre Dame's consistency against unranked opponents. While the committee acknowledges Miami's head-to-head win, they are also focusing on comparisons between Notre Dame and Alabama. Their two close losses to Miami and Texas A&M keep them in the conversation.
10. Alabama Crimson Tide: Alabama's road win against Auburn bolsters their resume. Their early-season win at Georgia remains a key accomplishment. However, the loss to Oklahoma and a defeat to Florida State continue to weigh them down. An SEC title win against Georgia could propel them past Notre Dame, but the Oklahoma loss remains a significant hurdle.
11. BYU Cougars: BYU's lone loss to Texas Tech could be a saving grace if the Red Raiders secure a top-four spot. Their road win at Arizona and victory against Utah strengthen their profile. However, Miami's convincing win against Pitt and victory over Notre Dame pose a threat.
12. Miami Hurricanes: Miami's convincing road win against a ranked Pitt team demonstrates their consistency. Their four-game winning streak, during which they outscored their opponents 151-41, showcases their potential. Their win against Notre Dame is a significant asset. However, they must overcome the committee's existing perception that BYU and Alabama are superior teams.
Projected Seeding
Based on these projections, the seeding would be:
- No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
- No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
