Damien Woody explains how the Chiefs' season is essentially over after Sunday night's loss to the Texans. (0:41) Week 14 is in the books! We had four non-first-round rookie quarterbacks take snaps this week -- Riley Leonard, Shedeur Sanders, Brady Cook and Tyler Shough. We had three interceptions behind the line of scrimmage -- two in one game between the Bengals and Bills. And we had the most important play in NFL history: a third-and-2 from the Chargers' 21 on which Jalen Hurts threw an interception to Da'Shawn Hand, who fumbled the ball on the return, which was picked up by Hurts, who then fumbled it back and was recovered by the Chargers. According to Elias Sports Bureau, it's the first time in their database (which goes back to 1978) that the same player had two turnovers on one down. It was beautiful to watch live. (And masterfully called by Joe Buck, who acted as if it was something he sees every week.) Though this column will not have two turnovers in one paragraph, it will react measuredly to everyone's overreactions, celebrate the exciting stuff that nobody is appreciating and highlight what you might have missed Sunday and Monday. There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun. Jump to a section: Big Thing: How to fix the Chiefs' offense Second Take: Jaguars are a real contender Mailbag: Answering questions from ... you Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 14 stats Monday Night Mayhem: Turnovers cost Eagles Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous slate of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season? This week, we're looking at the reeling Chiefs and how to get them back on track in 2026 and beyond. Patrick Mahomes had maybe the worst game of his career Sunday night. By EPA (expected points added) per dropback (minus-0.54), completion percentage (42.4%) and passer rating (19.8), it was the least productive game he has ever played in a Chiefs uniform. With the loss, the Chiefs' playoff streak is in serious jeopardy. After 10 straight postseason appearances, the Chiefs now have only a 16.4% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projections. And they have a 53.8% chance to make the playoffs even if they win out. The mighty truly have fallen. But it's important to keep the Chiefs' brokenness in perspective. "The Chiefs' reign is over!" No, it is not. "This is the beginning of the end!" Not correct. "Mahomes is and always was overrated!" Codswallop. The temptation to proclaim the Chiefs' destruction is a direct reaction to the Chiefs' irritatingly immortal 2024 season. We all remember the stats: 11-0 in one-score games, 15-2 overall. Bottom five in explosive play rate, bottom 10 in yards per play. Kansas City was evidently worse than it had been in the first era of Mahomes' tenure, especially on offense -- yet it didn't seem to matter. For every other team, on-field performance affected the outcome of the game the way it always has for recorded human history. But the Chiefs just won, independent of how they played. Maddening stuff. It was already true then that the Chiefs had legitimate issues. When a team is 11-0 in one-score games, it is worse than the record indicates. It's just challenging, both internally and externally, to calibrate those issues when that same team is attending its fifth Super Bowl in six seasons. Similarly, when a team is 1-6 in one-score games, as the 2025 Chiefs are, it is better than the record indicates. The Chiefs are currently seventh in DVOA and second in FPI. The Chiefs probably will miss the playoffs, while clearly worse teams will make it. They're far from the first team to experience this, and it is tough to feel too sorry for them. (See: five Super Bowls in six years.) But since the Chiefs are enduring this mini-collapse, it's much easier now to talk about the problems, not only those that first cropped up in 2024 but also those that have been festering for much longer. Throw away simple stats like win-loss record and complex ones like DVOA. Anyone who has watched the Chiefs since Mahomes took over in 2018 has experienced this offense's decline over the past few seasons. Winning cures all ills in the NFL, and finally in the cold light of a losing record, the Chiefs are confronted with what is broken. It's impossible to get to everything here. I have Jawaan Taylor complaints, defensive tackle frustrations and CB snap count questions. But on the topic of the Chiefs' offense, two huge issues have glared for years. And the Chiefs won't dig their way out of this hole without fixing them. The Chiefs need a real (and normal) running game There was a wonderful moment in the late 2010s and early 2020s in which it looked as if the passing game might reach escape velocity. It was the beginning of the golden age of football analytics, and we learned much about throwing on early downs, throwing with play-action, throwing with a lead, throwing, throwing, throwing. A tsunami of talented young quarterbacks -- Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert -- hit a league still enjoying the final days of prime Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. With rule changes, schematic innovation and advanced numbers, passing had never been easier or more prolific. No team embraced the pass-first offensive philosophy more warmly than Andy Reid's Chiefs. This is not surprising. Reid regularly came under fire for a pass-happy approach when he coached the Eagles from 1999 to 2011. Reid has been the coach of the Chiefs for the entirety of the NFL Next Gen Stats era (since 2016), and Kansas City is regularly among the league leaders in pass rate over expectation. Four of the six pass-heaviest seasons in the NGS database are the Chiefs' ... and five of the top eight ... and six of the top 11. The Chiefs have been first or second in pass rate over expectation every single season since 2018 (they are second to the Cardinals this season). Throwing the ball more often when you have the best quarterback is not a bad idea, and the Chiefs do not need to completely change their ways. But they have gone to the water's edge and must take a few steps back. One reason the Chiefs' pass rate is so high is because they rely on run-pass options more than any team. Finding good data on RPOs is challenging. They're hard to chart and teams run them differently. But when we look at throws that are out within 1.5 seconds of the snap -- ultra-quick throws -- we are generally catching one-read decisions that are meant to hit close to the line of scrimmage. These passes are really extensions of the running game. Mahomes has 77 pass attempts this season under 1.5 seconds. The next closest quarterback (Rodgers) has 49. Mahomes himself had 69 all of last season; he's well beyond that this season, and we still have four more games to play. Adam Schefter doesn't expect the Chiefs will make any voluntary changes to their coaching staff this offseason. By consistently tagging running plays with pass routes, the Chiefs take advantage of Mahomes' lightning-quick release and high football IQ. But such an approach comes with costs. To run RPOs at this rate, the Chiefs have to spend most of their time in shotgun, with 62.4% of the Chiefs' running back carries this season coming from that formation. That limits the menu of concepts Kansas City can run. With the running back to one side of the quarterback, opposing defenses can more readily predict which direction the run is hitting. Running from the shotgun with RPOs also limits the inclusion of the wide receivers in the blocking scheme, further decreasing the complexity for opposing defenses. The healthiest running games right now (Bears, Rams, Bills, Lions) don't just get under center but also get their receivers into the core of the formation and ask them to dig out safeties. Some guys are truly impactful blockers (Puka Nacua, Tyrell Shavers). Some are more willing than impactful (Jameson Williams, Rome Odunze). But schematically, putting the wide receiver in the scheme forces cornerbacks to get into the run fit, read things out, take on blocks and make tackles. It's a win for the offense. The Chiefs do not have receivers or tight ends who can block well in space; even future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce has always struggled in this particular part of his game. To get to their screen and RPO game, the Chiefs have to play receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and tight end Noah Gray, who do not create stress as actual receivers. The Chiefs' pass catchers are accordingly siloed. There are quick, creative players they'd like to get the ball to fast (Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice) and bigger players they need to field to block for those YAC threats (Smith-Schuster, Gray). Again, this makes them predictable. Fold the simplicity of the running game in with the lack of running back talent, and we get a toothless rushing attack. Kansas City excels in short yardage with the bruising Kareem Hunt and a powerful interior of guards Trey Smith and Kingsley Suamataia and center Creed Humphrey. But the Chiefs fail to create big ground gains at a truly historic rate. The 2025 Chiefs have the lowest explosive rush rate on RB carries among all seasons since 2000 (2.6%). The 2024 Chiefs were third lowest (2.8%). Hunt and Isiah Pacheco (post-injury) break tackles for sure, but they don't run away from anyone. This is not a new problem. The Chiefs have been lugging a shotgun-heavy, oversimplified, just-get-us-four-yards-on-third-and-3 running game to the Super Bowl for several seasons. Reid built a running game optimized for short-yardage execution and got exactly what he bargained for there. The Chiefs average 3.6 yards per run from the gun (30th) and 1.7 yards before contact per rush (29th). This is not worthy of a defense's respect. The Chiefs cannot force safeties closer to the line of scrimmage or lure heavier defensive personnel onto the field. They run at a bare minimum to support the passing game and get the bare minimum from their running game as a result. Where do they go from here? There are two routes. One is the option pioneered by the Bills -- invest in an under-center running game. In the 2022 season, the Bills ran under center only slightly more frequently than the Chiefs did. In each subsequent season, the Bills have increased their under-center rate to the point that 83.4% of their running back runs have come from under center this season -- a league-leading figure. With offensive line coach Aaron Kromer in the building, the offense has grown under Ken Dorsey (2022-2023) and Joe Brady (2023-2025) to become more run-heavy and play-action pass oriented. It hasn't at all minimized Allen's impact on the team. • Takeaways, questions from each game » • Overreactions to Week 14 games » • Highlights » | Scoreboard » | More » I would love for the Chiefs to add an offensive coach from outside of the Reid tree this offseason. Go get one of Ben Johnson's myriad assistants in Chicago. Follow the Dan Campbell arc and hire some position coaches from the college ranks. Infuse this running game with new ideas. Buffalo, like Kansas City, nailed its offensive line picks: left tackle Dion Dawkins, right tackle Spencer Brown and right guard O'Cyrus Torrence are all homegrown selections. The Chiefs have hit on their linemen (Humphrey, Smith, Suamataia) as well. But the Chiefs have not invested in the ancillary players the way the Bills have. Buffalo has three legitimate blockers at tight end (Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Jackson Hawes) and a quality fullback (Reggie Gilliam), which allows them to get into a more diverse running game. And of course, the key for Buffalo is running back James Cook III. Even when the Chiefs invested early at running back with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, they did so in large part because of his potential impact as a pass catcher. If the reports are true that general manager Brett Veach could have had Jets running back Breece Hall for a third-round pick at the deadline this year and passed, that was a serious misstep. If the Chiefs' draft capital has not gone into ancillary players around the running game, then where has it gone? The Chiefs need a more balanced receiver room The quiet part about Kansas City that must be said out loud: It has not drafted well and is accordingly talent deficient. We can highlight a few roster spots where this is true, but the most immediate to the offense is at wide receiver. In the past four drafts, the Chiefs have spent a first-round pick (Worthy), two seconds (Skyy Moore and Rice) and a fourth (Jalen Royals) on wide receivers. They also traded a 2023 third-rounder for Kadarius Toney and a 2025 fifth-rounder for DeAndre Hopkins. In free agency, the only big move the past few offseasons has been signing Hollywood Brown, and Tyquan Thornton and Smith-Schuster filled out the bottom of the roster. Rice is for sure a hit. Since entering the league, he has 2.7 yards per route run (seventh among frequently targeted receivers) as a high-volume underneath player; his 8.1 yards after catch per reception leads all receivers. He's not a complete player, as he doesn't have a legitimate downfield element to his game, but he is a useful one, especially in the current construct of the Chiefs' RPO-heavy, quick-game offense. Download the ESPN app and enable Adam Schefter's news alerts to receive push notifications for the latest updates first. Opt in by tapping the alerts bell in the top right corner. For more information, click here. But in the modern NFL, teams can't just have one guy. Offenses need at least two. Sign Davante Adams to run with Nacua. Extend both Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase. Trade for A.J. Brown and draft DeVonta Smith. Draft both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. With the exorbitant passing volume in today's NFL, it takes more than one quality receiver to sustain the pass-catching load. The Chiefs don't have that caliber of star. Kelce was once that player but hasn't been such a pass catcher for years now. Worthy had productive games when Rice was down but isn't a high-volume player. He lacks the size and consistency to win balls downfield and must have offense manufactured for him. Rice isn't really a true WR1, as he doesn't make a consistent impact at all three levels of the field. This is where the Chiefs' team-building failure has really hurt them. They could have built a dangerous, spread-the-wealth offense that lacks truly elite pass catchers with well-rounded skill sets but has so much depth that anyone can go off on any given week. Think about the Colts, with Alec Pierce, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs and Tyler Warren. Or the Packers, with Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed. A deep, WR1-less room is possible in that scenario, but only if you build for different skill sets. Receivers can win in such myriad ways -- long speed, quickness, physicality, route running, catch radius, general savviness, jump-ball ability -- that over-indexing one particular playstyle creates a one-dimensional passing attack. That's exactly what the Chiefs did. Trading Tyreek Hill in the 2022 offseason deprived them of their field-stretching element, and all the zones that Mahomes shredded to that point in his career started to compress. This was the beginning of the "two-high defenses are ruining football" undercurrent of the past few seasons. Hill's absence also glared in their RPO game, as his angle-breaking quickness turned many quick passes into solid gains. The Chiefs went all-out in pursuit of his replacement. They drafted Moore, then traded for Toney, then signed Brown, then drafted Worthy. Four players known for speed who are sub-6-feet and 200 pounds. Even the Chiefs' big receivers aren't big. Rice was 6-foot-1 and 204 pounds at the combine. Royals is 6-foot and 205 pounds. Thornton is the tallest receiver on the depth chart at 6-2 ... and he weighs 185 pounds. It's easy to say after a game against the Texans' defense, which brings a level of physicality that makes every offense uncomfortable, but the Chiefs got weight-classed on Sunday night, and it wasn't the first time that has happened. The Eagles did the same in both Super Bowl LIX and in Week 2 this season, and the Bills did it in Week 9. These defenses play man coverage, endure the few good Worthy or Brown reps over the top and force every downfield throw from Mahomes to be perfect as his smaller receivers fade away from contact and catch points. Remember, the theory behind the build was twofold: stretch the field open and create more room for Mahomes to throw downfield, and replace the lost explosiveness in the run/RPO game. The latter has not been achieved. Mahomes leads the league in throws behind the line of scrimmage, and just like in the running game, the Chiefs' pass game has a great success rate (fourth) and bad explosive play rate (18th). The downfield passing game has opened up. After consecutive seasons with 6.2 air yards per attempt, Mahomes' depth of target has jumped to 7.6 this season -- his highest since 2020. But the juice hasn't been worth the squeeze. Mahomes' completion percentage on downfield passes (36.4%) is up from 2023 and 2024 but not back to Hill-era levels (43.2% from 2018 to 2021). Despite the wide receiver investment, the Chiefs haven't rebuilt Hill in the aggregate. Watch your favorite events in the newly enhanced ESPN App. Learn more about what plan is right for you. Sign Up Now This brings us to the second route the Chiefs could take for offensive innovation. The Bills, who have also struggled mightily to get wide receiver talent in the building, became an under-center running team that featured their tight ends. Meanwhile, the Bengals have remained a shotgun running team that doesn't rely much on RPOs. They are the producers of the second path: have truly elite wide receiver talent. With elite wide receiver talent, offenses don't need to mess with bubble screens, box-count math and making sure the nickel is leveraged. Just line up one guy on one side, the other guy on the opposite side and pick the best matchup. Quarterbacks can expect their receivers to win one-on-ones -- something Mahomes has truly not expected of his receivers in years. If this sounds mind-numbingly simple, it is. The "have better dudes than the other team" path is the most well-trodden path in the NFL for a reason. But any discussion of the Chiefs' brokenness would be incomplete without acknowledging that they haven't had better dudes for a while. Their leading wide receivers in the Super Bowl LVIII win over the 49ers were Mecole Hardman and Justin Watson. Of Worthy's 157 yards in last season's Super Bowl, 146 came after the Chiefs were down 34-0. We should stop expecting the Chiefs to have above-average passing games if they continue fielding below-average wide receiver rooms. Some will see this as being a Mahomes apologist. Sure, he has missed his share of open downfield receivers this season. But I cannot stress this enough: Kansas City's receivers are productive because of the quarterback, not the other way around. This is not a good wide receiver room, full stop. Even Kelce would have been relegated to Zach Ertz-level production by any other quarterback at this point in his career. It's harsh but true. Of course, "hit on a Ja'Marr Chase and a Tee Higgins" is not helpful advice. But the Chiefs could go a long way by simply diversifying their wide receiver options. Imagine adding Jauan Jennings in free agency -- a bully of a short-yardage receiver who creates big runs with plus blocking. Imagine signing Jakobi Meyers, who is proving in Jacksonville what consistent hands in the intermediate areas of the field can do for an offense. Imagine what Mike Evans or even Kyle Pitts Sr. would do for this team against man coverage. They aren't elite receivers at this point but would restore a sense of wholeness to a receiver room that has been far too focused on one role. But there is no reason to fuss over this. There is no team for whom sending two first-round picks for Justin Jefferson (I'm making something up as an example, this is not a real trade, please do not aggregate this) is more defensible than the Chiefs. The passing game will immediately excel the moment a truly dangerous receiver enters the fold. Reckless aggression to fix a position group in one offseason is rarely a warranted approach. But when you have Mahomes, you get to do things other teams don't. That last note is something that none of us should forget. The Chiefs' offense is a mess. It needs revitalizing, both on the depth chart and on the chalkboard. But because they employ Mahomes, they are on the cusp of greatness at any moment. One or two shrewd tweaks and this offense is the best in football in 2026. That's the margin afforded to the team with the best quarterback of his era. So: "The Chiefs' reign is over!" No, it is not. "This is the beginning of the end!" Not correct. "Mahomes is and always was overrated!" Balderdash. This will get fixed this offseason, and the Chiefs will be chugging along in 2026, same as always. ESPN's "First Take" is known for, well, providing the first take on things -- the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather where I'll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view. Two weeks ago, my "second take" was that the AFC South was up for grabs. The Colts were 8-3 and about to play the Texans and Jaguars; the 7-4 Jaguars were about to play the Titans and Colts; the 6-5 Texans were about to play the Colts and Chiefs. The Colts went 0-2 over those games, while the Texans and Jaguars went 2-0. Things have become as topsy-turvy as we could have hoped. The current mainstream AFC playoff take is "watch out for the Texans." Back-to-back road wins against the Colts and Chiefs, powered by an elite defense, sit the Texans firmly as AFC contenders. No, they aren't guaranteed to make the playoffs. Yes, they'd play most of their postseason games on the road if they do make it. But that defense can beat anybody. Sleep with one eye open if the Texans are on your schedule. I agree with that take wholeheartedly. I've been a Texans believer for much of the season. But let's not overlook the Jaguars. Michael DiRocco details Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. leading the Jaguars to a win against the Colts. Since their Week 8 bye, the Jaguars are 5-1. Their only loss was to the Texans (led by Davis Mills) in an end-of-game collapse so spectacular it can only be described as Jagsian. In that six-game stretch, the Jaguars' offense is sixth in success rate, fifth in points per drive and 13th in EPA per play. The Jaguars' defense is 13th in success rate, seventh in points per drive and seventh in EPA per play. Quite simply, they have been good. Their opponents over that stretch have not been. Jacksonville has played the Raiders, Texans, Chargers, Cardinals, Titans and Colts. The Raiders and Cardinals also took them to overtime. These wins have not always been pretty. But playoff football doesn't care what you've been so much as what you are, and the Jaguars are rounding into form. Offensively, the skeleton key has been wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, a midseason trade acquisition who has stepped into the shoes left behind by injured Travis Hunter -- and then some. The Jaguars' previous wide receiver corps featured Hunter, a rookie moonlighting at cornerback, and Brian Thomas Jr., a second-year player fighting drops and, seemingly, a fear of contact. It was the image of inconsistency. Add in the erratic play of quarterback Trevor Lawrence, and every Jacksonville dropback was one bad coin flip away from disaster. Meyers has brought unbelievable consistency and smoothness. Since he arrived in Week 10, 67.7% of his targets have turned into successful plays for the offense -- plays that generated positive expected points -- leading all wide receivers. And 51.6% of his targets have gone for first downs or touchdowns, sixth in the NFL. Because of his reliability, Meyers has gotten the designed touches that were previously apportioned for Hunter and Thomas. He saw multiple jet sweeps Sunday, including one in the low red zone, and was also targeted on a screen. Meyers is not a particularly impressive ball-in-hand athlete, but coach Liam Coen is no longer chasing massive plays with these touches. He just needs them to not end in TFLs, fumbles, drops or miscommunications, which occurred too often early in the season. Thomas has slid back into his preferred role of field-stretcher now that Meyers handles the more mundane responsibilities. In only his second game on the field with Meyers, Thomas had 25.5 air yards per target -- his biggest number this season by a substantial margin. His closest target to the line of scrimmage was 16 yards downfield. The return of tight end Brenton Strange, another trustworthy stick-mover, also further clarified Thomas' role. With Strange and Meyers in hand, Thomas moves to a more Jameson Williams-like spot in the offense. No, he isn't the WR1 ... but that doesn't mean he isn't the scariest wide receiver on the field. On a vertical route stem, Thomas shows the ball tracking and spectacular catch ability that seemingly vanishes any time he's asked to break horizontally and work across the middle. Sunday was, without question, his best game of the season. pic.twitter.com/koUUZbBc3C Likewise, this was Lawrence's best game of the Coen era. Before we get way too far over our skis, we should look at the circumstances. Lawrence's offense scored two short-field touchdowns from Colts turnovers, and the Jaguars were never threatened in the second half, as Daniel Jones' second-quarter Achilles injury left the Colts' offense rudderless. We also should not overlook history. Lawrence has done this before, playing 1-4 games with lights-out accuracy and decisiveness only to lose all of that precision suddenly and disastrously. With that said ... Lawrence was shredding against the Colts. The kid gloves have come off the offense as Lawrence and Coen have become more comfortable with each other. The Jaguars called 33 screens in the seven games before their bye (4.7 per game) and have called 10 screens in the six games since (1.7). Before the bye, 34.7% of Lawrence's throws went at least 10 yards downfield; since the bye, it has been 44.6%. That's the highest rate for all quarterbacks in that span. Lawrence loves to throw to the intermediate level of the field. It's one reason his interception rate is so high -- there are a lot of defenders in that area and the windows are tight. But because Coen does more than Doug Pederson or Urban Meyer did to create easy windows with pre-snap motion and condensed formations, Lawrence is afforded more layups and can more easily stay out of his own way. He plays decisively, gets the ball out in rhythm and avoids hits. In this mode, Lawrence's accuracy and arm talent -- you remember, the thing that got him drafted No. 1 in 2021 -- shines. Lawrence dropped balls into buckets for four quarters against Indianapolis. He hit Thomas on the two vertical throws, had another seam ball to Thomas, threw a couple of high-risk 50-50 balls against free rushers that weren't snagged, hit Tim Patrick on a perfect out-and-up on third-and-15, and hit Patrick again on this throw to his left. This is the sort of throw that gets me jacked up. pic.twitter.com/TVTKVt1NLU Some of this is game state. The Jaguars have led all six games of their current 5-1 run almost pole-to-pole, so Lawrence hasn't been shoved into a pass-first game plan. Again, postseason danger levels aren't about what was but rather what is, and the Jaguars have used this soft stretch to iron out many of the kinks in this passing game. Harder to talk about but no less impressive has been the defense. The Jaguars are deploying a preposterous defensive line rotation. Beyond known stars Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker this week were DaVon Hamilton, rookie Danny Striggow (a UDFA out of Minnesota who was inactive the first five weeks), Maason Smith, Matt Dickerson (a career practice squad player), Dawuane Smoot and Dennis Gardeck. Consider what we know about elite defensive lines such as the ones in Philadelphia, Denver and Houston and the importance of depth. Then look at what the Jaguars are fielding week over week. Yet since Week 10, they are seventh in the league in pressure rate at 39.4% despite time missed by Walker and defensive tackle Arik Armstead, who was active but largely unavailable against the Colts. Defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile has gone deep into his bag of simulated pressures, sending rushers from depth while dropping defensive linemen into coverage to manipulate protection rules without additional blitzers. Again, some of this is game script. The Jaguars can't get into their designer pressure packages as often without taking big leads. But by limiting explosive plays (third in explosive pass rate allowed since the bye) and stymieing early-down runs (fifth in rushing success rate), a defense can create the third-and-long environments necessary for sick pressure designs. And on plays in which nothing is schemed up, the ever-underappreciated Hines-Allen can generate one of his 63 pressures on the season (fourth most in the league). We're going to learn a lot about the Jaguars in two Sundays, when they face the 11-2 Broncos in Denver. (They have the Jets this Sunday and are currently 12.5-point favorites, the most the Jaguars have been favored in a game in 18 years.) Denver's pass rush has the speed and depth to fluster Lawrence as he waits for downfield routes to develop, and the Broncos' offensive line is easily the best the Jaguars have faced since playing the Rams in Week 7 in London (Jacksonville lost 35-7). But the Jaguars can fall to an excellent Broncos team and still prove to me they're legit as an AFC contender much in the way the Bears' recent games against the Eagles and Packers proved why they belong in the NFC race. The Texans have passed that heat check and now set their eyes on sweeping their last four games and stealing the division from Jacksonville. They're all the rage given their five-game winning streak and prime-time victories over the Bills and Chiefs. All of their flowers are deserved. I'm in awe and terrified of them. But I'm just as impressed with the quiet Jags, who have rebuilt their roster and adjusted their coaching approach to match. They are well-coached, deep and versatile. In a surprisingly down AFC with fewer elite quarterbacks in the playoff field than years past, the Jaguars are capable of a deep playoff run. The best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime -- but especially on Monday each week -- to ask a question and potentially get it answered here. From Brad: "How do you defeat the Houston Texans' defense? We must know. Signed, all of #BillsMafia" I imagine more than just Bills fans want to know how to deal with Houston's defense. It's a very challenging unit to beat because it is so talented across the board, but the Texans aren't a disguise-heavy team or blitz-heavy group so if you have receiver depth, you can pick your matchups. Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre are two of the better CB2s and nickelbacks in football, but they're often left on islands and are gettable. The Texans also tend to struggle with mobile quarterbacks -- we saw how good Mahomes was as a scrambler Sunday night, but the designed running game burns them, too. That's why the Lamar Jackson-led Ravens have given them issues in the DeMeco Ryans era. If the Bills got the Texans again in the postseason, I'd expect a huge dose of designed Allen runs in an attempt to slow that pass rush. Simulate your own scenarios and check the latest playoff picture. Playoff Machine » • Playoff picture » | Standings » | More » From Ross: "Based on the last few games ... which round should Shedeur Sanders have been drafted?" Hmm. I'd say third. Sunday was his best game as a pro for sure, though it still came with plenty of in-pocket hijinks and missed opportunities. Still, a limited athlete with good playmaking instincts and toughness and a quality college résumé feels to me like a late Day 2 pick. From Chewy: "Kyler to the Colts next year?" Nah, he's too young. Wait until Kyler Murray is in his 40s and has been retired for four years. In all seriousness: I've seen a few people lob Murray to the Colts as an idea, and I just don't see it. NFL Next Gen Stats are unique and insightful nuggets of data that are gleaned from tracking chips and massive databases. Next Ben Stats are usually numbers I made up. Both are below. 52.3%: That's the Rams' rushing success rate this season. If it holds, it's the second-best season of the past 20 (which is as far back as my numbers go). The best season? Also a Sean McVay-lead Rams team, as the 2018 Rams had a 52.5% success rate. To put this number into perspective, the league average success rate on running plays this season is 43.0%. Over the past 20, it's 40.5%. The running back duo of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum has been everything McVay could have dreamed of. There is no fat in either player's game. Much the way they did in 2018, the Rams run one concept at a dominant rate and dress it up a thousand different ways. Back then it was outside zone; these days it's duo. But both approaches require the back to consistently make the defense wrong with fast decisions and no freelancing. Unlike in past seasons with Todd Gurley or Williams pre-Corum, the Rams would worry about overloading their back with a volume of touches and hits that diminished their efficacy late in seasons and over many years. But with Corum, who is so much so a carbon copy of Williams that it is often difficult to tell who is carrying the football at first, the Rams can now protect Williams from prohibitive volume. Stephania Bell breaks down how Blake Corum's increased utilization in the Rams offense is translating into higher fantasy production. Decisive, downhill backs still need offensive lines to pave the way. Los Angeles' running game currently ranks first since 2018 in adjusted line yards, which is FTN Fantasy's metric for how much of a running game's production belongs to the offensive line. The previous first-place team that the 2025 Rams supplanted? The 2018 Rams. As a reminder: those 2018 Rams went 13-3, won the NFC West and advanced to play the Patriots in Super Bowl LIII. With two weeks to plan, Bill Belichick got McVay good. This time around, there's no Belichick waiting in the AFC and the Rams are a little more talented at quarterback. In my eyes, the Rams remain the only obvious Super Bowl-caliber team in the NFL. 52.8%: That's the rate at which Josh Allen's dropbacks had a play-action fake Sunday against the Bengals. It's the fourth highest of any game in his career. Something is afoot in Buffalo. Against the Steelers in Week 13, Allen averaged 1.4 air yards per pass -- the lowest of any game in his career. In fact, he has only eight career games under 5.0 air yards per attempt, and four of them have come this season. Sunday's game against the Bengals was another one: 4.6 air yards per attempt. But Allen also had a play-action fake on over half of his dropbacks against the Bengals. His previous high this season was 37.9% against the Saints -- an enormous delta. Run fakes, of course, are typically employed to throw the ball down the field. And that did happen several times (to great effect) against Cincinnati. But still, Allen largely kept the football at and often behind the line of scrimmage. The reason this is interesting is because the best version of the 2025 Bills offense (read: before they can fix the wide receiver room) is one that is heavy run and play-action but uses play-action to throw quickly on swings, crossers and other fast-hitting underneath options. Allen can still hit the shots when they're there and his ability to extend plays helps open up throws outside of structure. But the Bills, who were once totally lost in their hunt for an offensive identity, are cooking with a reimagined approach of faster dropbacks and shallower targets. The offense they're bringing to their critical rematch against the Patriots this Sunday is much, much different than the one they deployed against New England in the first matchup. Something to watch. Rich Eisen marvels at Josh Allen's performance in the Bills' win over the Bengals. 1,795: That's how many days it has been since Philip Rivers played in an NFL game. He is reportedly working out for the Colts on Tuesday and would presumably start a game at some point this season. To flesh it out more, 1,795 days is almost five years. Which feels like a long time. But it's probably not a long time for Rivers, who is 168 years old (don't fact-check that.) 37 degrees: that's how cold it was at kickoff for Dolphins-Jets, a game the Dolphins won convincingly to extend their winning streak to four games. It's the first game Tua Tagovailoa has won in the NFL when the temperature was under 45 degrees. This is a big deal! The offense's inability to travel ruined Miami's 2023 postseason run, when it had to travel to frigid Kansas City, and it spoiled an upstart playoff bid in 2024, when the Dolphins lost a critical regular-season road game in Green Bay. Tagovailoa was previously 0-6 in starts under 45 degrees and 1-8 in games under 50 degrees. • The narrow path to a Cowboys playoff berth • N.Y. Giants trio set for big paydays • How Jones' injury impacts Colts • Inside Saquon's dip in production • Harvey has Broncos excited The lone other win, coincidentally, was also against the Jets. But this one is different! The Dolphins have a far more reliable running game, both in terms of on-field quality and playcalling commitment, than they've had over the past few seasons. Kevin Patra of NFL Network pointed out that the Dolphins have rushed for 160-plus yards in four consecutive games for the first time since 1977. Miami has a suddenly critical prime-time game against the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Monday night. Temperatures will almost certainly be below freezing. Miami's playoff odds are around 1% right now, but all four remaining games are winnable: at Pittsburgh, home against the Bengals and Buccaneers, and at the Patriots in Week 18, when New England might not have anything to play for. They'd have around a 17% chance to make the postseason if they finish the season 10-7. I'm not saying it'll happen. But it is my Dr. Strange "one universe" hypothetical. 4: That's how many special teams touchdowns the Jets have through 14 weeks. That's the most a team has had through Week 14 since the 2014 Eagles. I bring this up because I'm finally getting to the age in which players I remember well are now coaching (looking at you, Bears assistant head coach Antwaan Randle El). And the Jets' special teams coordinator, in his first coordinator role, is Chris Banjo. He was on the Cardinals' active roster just three years ago! Anyway, great job, Chris Banjo. Five turnovers. Four interceptions, one that ended the Eagles' 22-19 loss in overtime, another that gave the Chargers a tying drive in the fourth quarter. And a fumble. Which came on the same play on which he threw an interception. The first five-turnover game of Jalen Hurts' career. I feel like I bring this up once a month, but here we go again: The Eagles became an elite offense in 2024 when they convinced Hurts to stop turning over the football. That wasn't the only big change -- Saquon Barkley, Kellen Moore, Vic Fangio's defense -- but it was the big change for the quarterback. From the 2023 regular season and postseason into the beginning of 2024, Hurts was averaging more than one giveaway a game. In 22 games -- 17 regular-season starts in 2023, a wild-card loss that postseason and four regular-season starts in 2024 -- he had 27 turnovers. Nineteen were interceptions, eight were lost fumbles. He put another six on the ground that were recovered by the offense. He wasn't turnover-prone, but he wasn't exactly careful with the football, either. That time frame is significant because the Eagles had a bye week in Week 5 last season. At that point, they were 2-2 and the offense had no identity yet. Out of that early bye, they emerged in Week 6 with a clear identity: run the football, play great defense and, at all costs, protect the ball. Over the next 15 games -- the remainder of the regular season and the entire 2024 postseason -- Hurts had four giveaways. Two interceptions, two fumbles. Of course, as is always the case with turnovers, luck was involved. Hurts had five total fumbles, only two of which were recovered by the defense. He had several potential interceptions that weren't secured. But Hurts' contribution to the new offensive identity in Philadelphia was one of reduction. It was his job to avoid negative plays, even at the expense of attempting high-leverage throws. The Chargers win a wild one over the Eagles in overtime in a game that featured eight combined turnovers. This is one of the reasons why Hurts rarely throws over the middle, where two of his four interceptions happened Monday night. There are lots of bodies over the middle, and batted balls through tight windows become tip-drill interceptions. Hurts was in no-giveaway mode to start this season. In the first 11 games, Hurts had only three giveaways. In the past two games -- losses to the Bears and the Chargers -- he had seven. A five-turnover game will inevitably involve a heap of bad luck. But it's also a sign of shifting offensive identity in Philadelphia, where the Eagles -- as was covered extensively on the broadcast -- are aware of the fact that they have no reliable offensive go-tos even in Week 14 of the season. The Eagles and beleaguered offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo dialed up more crossers to A.J. Brown in this game than perhaps any other this season, inviting the risk of interceptions back into their offensive identity in the hope that they'd be paid off with a more productive day through the air. It did get their star receiver more involved -- Brown had 100 receiving yards on 13 targets. But the juice was not worth the squeeze. We shouldn't ring any sort of referendum on Hurts as a quarterback off a four-interception game. I said the same thing about his opponent on Monday night, Justin Herbert, when he threw four picks against the Texans in the Chargers' most recent embarrassing playoff loss. Four-pick games are super aberrative and not predictive of future interception tomfoolery. But as the Eagles once again spiral the drain of a lost season and seemingly inevitable coordinator change, it's worth remembering that the best thing Hurts does as a passer is avoid interceptions. It's what made him a calm and clutch captain of a Super Bowl offense last season. Such a play style needs to be coupled with an elite defense (the Eagles' is pretty good) and an elite running game (not so great this season). When Hurts can't do what he does best, and he's asked to make more tight-window throws over the intermediate areas of the field, things can nosedive in Philadelphia very quickly.
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Solak's second look at Week 14: We're fixing the Chiefs' biggest issues and sorting AFC South chaos
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