PM Modi’s successful visit to Ethiopia illustrates the approach adopted towards Africa, rooted in personal diplomacy, historical ties, and strategic re-engagement. The warmth and informality with which Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed received Modi were striking. He personally welcomed Modi, drove him to engagements, and saw him off, displaying trust and camaraderie. This “car diplomacy” underscores the importance he places on direct personal communication.
The enthusiasm surrounding the visit vindicated India’s long-standing relationship with Ethiopia which had quietened in recent years. Modi’s visit revived it, restoring momentum. The standing ovation to his speech in Parliament manifested this revival.
Although Modi did not formally visit the African Union Commission, his meeting with AU Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf at the state banquet, where they were seated together, was significant. With the Fourth India-Africa Forum Summit (IAFS IV) on the horizon, this interaction is expected to generate positive institutional follow-up.
For Ethiopia, Modi’s visit carried deeper meaning. Emerging from years of civil war and navigating regional tensions across the Horn of Africa, particularly involving Sudan, Somalia, and Egypt, Ethiopia has been diplomatically constrained. Modi’s arrival marked the first visit by a major BRICS head and helped Ethiopia signal its return to international engagement and legitimacy.
India had earlier played a key role in supporting Ethiopia’s successful bid for BRICS membership, a gesture that Abiy reciprocated by participating in the Voice of the Global South Summit in 2023 and 2024. Abiy is now expected in India for the AI Summit in February and the subsequent BRICS Summit.
A major outcome of the visit was the elevation of bilateral ties to a strategic partnership, reflecting the breadth of cooperation across economic, educational, development, and security domains. India sees Ethiopia as a pivotal anchor in the Horn of Africa, a region affected by the competing interventions of Gulf states, which exacerbated instability in Sudan, Somalia, and beyond. India’s partnership offers Ethiopia an alternative, helping it pursue a more independent foreign policy rather than yielding to regional pressures.
This is relevant as Ethiopia pursues access to the Red Sea, whether through Somaliland or via arrangements with Eritrea, moves that carry inherent risks of regional destabilisation and require caution. India’s role as a trusted strategic partner can help temper these ambitions through dialogue.
Defence cooperation is another pillar. Ethiopia benefited from India’s defence training and capacity-building initiatives. Following years of military engagement, its armed forces require replenishment in both equipment and capability. A structured defence partnership would allow Ethiopia to diversify its security relationships. Education remains the most enduring dimension. Indian education continues to command immense respect in Ethiopia. The decision to double ICCR scholarships, utilise ITEC fellowships, and extend AI-focused training under ITEC reflects this legacy.
Ethiopia sends a number of PhD students to India under its own programmes. Given its population of over 130 million, Ethiopia should be encouraged to establish Indian-supported educational institutions locally, creating scalable opportunities at home.
One gap was the absence of a business engagement. Ethiopia anticipated an Indian business delegation as in Jordan and Oman. This was a missed opportunity, especially as private Indian FDI in Ethiopia now exceeds $5 billion. Abiy personally introduced prominent Indian investors to Modi, but a formal outreach could have amplified confidence.
Ethiopia, facing IMF conditionalities and benefiting from inclusion under the G20 Common Framework for debt rescheduling, urgently needs a renewed surge of Indian private investment, similar to the wave seen between 2005 and 2009. A FICCI team was in Addis Ababa a week earlier and its visit could have been utilised to cover this gap.
Optimism remains strong that a major Indian business delegation will follow. With doors gradually closing in the US, Europe, and China, Ethiopia is also looking increasingly to India for collaboration in digital public infrastructure and AI. Indian SMEs, in particular, should view Ethiopia as a gateway to eastern Africa, leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area to access wider regional markets. The personal bonhomie between Modi and Abiy has unlocked significant possibilities. It is now for Indian industry and institutions to convert this political capital into sustained economic and strategic outcomes.
